The "best" speed rating of the last 3 at a comparable distance surface and competitio
 

Not that it made a big difference in today's race
because the favorite # 6 won in a short field.

I would like you to look at the line selected by the best preceptor
for horse 5 Rick The Bartender - line 3.
While working today's first race today with James baby cee I explained why I would be wary of line 3.
James uses this auto line selector setting but while going over the lines with him I captured our conversation on video

Attachment 37168

Attachment 37169

Setting aside whether there was or wasn't something strange about Feb 11's Speed Ratings at PRX - the reason both the #5 and #6 got the same 87 SR is because they both finished within a 'neck' of each other in the same Tandem race on Feb 11.

The point made by Bill and James is well taken though - don't blindly accept the selected pacelines. The #5 made an excellent move to narrowly mow down the #6 on Feb 11 - racing against by far the fastest PoR either of them had ever faced. The further analysis of - who exited that race in the best shape (i.e. measured by how well they've done subsequently) - is the important part, IMO, in knowing whether the #5 is the same horse today (no).

#6 gave 2 more pace setting good efforts (and one dull 7f Race), while the #5 doesn't seem to have done nearly so well (last race was an even, if uninspired run, finishing 3rd of 6, and one other dull 8f race).

Attachment 37171

The case could be made that the best 'comparable' line for the #6 is that 4th line Tandem (skip the intervening 7f non-comparable line). In this case both the #5 and #6 rate about the same. But the #5 does not seem to be the same horse as that Tandem, while the #6 does.

Just some further thoughts.

Ted

Results
 

Thank you Ted

As Ted points out to support our video,
The 6 came out of the tandem as the much better horse.
Today it turned the tandem around. that 87 is for Rick again looks very odd

GS
Bill
Attachment 37172

3rd horse
 

The third horse in the Feb 11 race 2 tandem was Philly Thunder
Philly Thunder is running today 4/8/13 in race 6

The 81 speed rating again looks a little suspicious.

If we compare the adjusted speed rating 81 to the trackmaster speed rating we see 91-81
But in its highest Trackmaster speed rating Philly Thunder ran a 103 on
Sept 14 line 6. Yet the Ajusted speed rating for line 6 is 79

Something to watch anyway :)

Attachment 37199

Bill,
Since you posted this I have kept my eye on this while selecting my pace lines. At first I set my cut off at -15. Then it progressed to -10 . Now anytime I see say -5 I get skeptical of the performance. Especially when there POH is 2 points or more. Do you think a -5 type variant is more then enough reason to ignore that pace line and select a different one ?

The match up
 

Hello HV88

Thanks for asking .. I would not suggest making any rules.
The pace line will "loom' up off the screen as you get more and more practice
and use all your focus.

A horse that runs on a slow track or a track that is overly adjusted
most likely will stick out when you match it up to the other horses in the
race you are handicapping.

There are 2 pretty helpful step by step guidelines in the follow ups.
They are in follow up 85 and 86
In each step by step Doc says one of the first things he does when looking at a race, is to glance at the speed ratings and judge a range of exceptable
speed ratings and will only use speed ratings within this range
for that race. I still use phase 1 for a good part of my handicapping
This of course means I rate every horse off its last line. before I do anything else .

It might be a good practice to check the adjusted speed ratings of each horse's last pace line. If you then look at the plus pacelines from the horses last lines you will get a good base for a speed rating range for that match up

Here is an example from a race Ramon worked down in the classic Sartin programs forum. Its race 1 from MNR on Sunday April 27 2014

Here are the last lines for all 10 horses in the race. All the horses with
plus or plus within a zero lines have a adjusted speed rating of
between 68 and 73. The speed ratiing range I would look for in this race are horses that ran there best of the last three comparable at or near a 68 to 73. In this race I will show how the winner was very tough and probably the reason it paid only $4.00.

Note.. I have added the adjusted speed ratings to the original lines
For this demo I have highlighted the ASR in a red border

Attachment 37398

In today's match up
 

Here is the winner of Ramon's race

there is a recency issue and maybe a form issue however
The last line can be excused because of the too high class
and line 2 can be excused for the wrong distance
Horse 8 ran a 82 speed rating in a plus paceline at a comparable surface and competition level If we look down at its other plus pace lines we see this is not
out of it normal ability its shows 80's and 81's

This paceline gives horse 8 a 9 point advantage on phase 1 and
the 82 is way over the range of speed ratings to the competition in today's match up

Attachment 37400

Attachment 37399


Here is my look and lines


Top 5 TPR before hides
5 3 10 9 6 Fulcrum # 6 87



H1 No line
H2 No line nothing since winning its maiden
H3 Line 1
H4 No line no reason to go to line 2 and it would be too far behind a87
anyway
H5 Line 1
H6 Line 1
H7 Line 1 however it cant run witha 87 and is 20/1 MLso no line
H8 Line 3 Last line is a zero but first after a layoff and way too high class
H9 Line 1
H10 Line 3

Hi Bill, The 2, 6, and 7 were scratched in that race. For the 8 do you often go back that far for a line. Line 3 for that horse was 6 months ago.

Thanks
 

George

Thanks for the info I suppose its a situation thing. Normally I use a line within 90 days.
I didn't handicap this race live. I was really just trying to show that horse 8 had the ability to run to a 82 speed rating. Doc talks about the difference of using a line that is 188 days ago and a horse off 188 days

If the 82 was #8's best ever speed rating and it had not been running to that figure with no valid excuse I would not use the line from 6 months ago.
In this case since MNR is not a year round track, it could be a case of a long layoff to rest during the cold winter, The 8 had been running well last summer and fall, then after a win at 6 furlongs it got a 5 week rest. This was followed by another win than a try at 8 furlongs in the mud.
After the long layoff it was entered to run way over its level
so that can be a double excuse of the layoff first try and the wrong class level so since the horse ran twice since the line but both races were excused
I would use that third line I believe if i can find it Doc used 189 days as his cut off in these situations.




Bill


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