Horsetourneys Contest - Delta 2/14
 

Hey all,

I'm entered in tonight's $2k guarantee (up to $5,000) live format contest covering Delta Downs Races 3 through 10.

My strategy for this contest is to use the auto paceline selector (Best Perceptor, Last 3 Comparable) with the Rx3 screen to start, examine the selected lines for any abberancy that may overrate a horse, and playing the percentages and my opponents.

I did a quick ML study of 75 winners (74 races, 1 of which was a Dead Heat) dating back to 2/2, to see which ML groupings were of high/low percentage to get an idea of "what was winning" the past couple of weeks off ML without regard for final board odds. Here were my stats:

<=5/2 - 33.3%
3-1 to 9/2 - 29.3%
5-1 to 10-1 - 28.0%
12-1 to 15-1 - 8.0%
>=20-1 - 1.3%

It's a small sampling, but the 20-1 and greater ML's are so pitifully low, that these can't be played unless I'm desperate for late race miracles. Of the 25 horses in the 5/2 or less group, 17 won (68% rate for that group) off ML odds of 2-1 or 5/2. Needless to say, I will have to be selective when it comes to shunning the <=5/2 grouping.

I will post my plays throughout the night. Wish me luck!

BTW, the wife and I are celebrating our Valentine's Day this weekend! :D

Score one for the 5-1 to 10-1 grouping. In pre-contest race watching, the #9 off a 6-1 ML pays $34.40. When tossing out the 20-1+ ML's, it came up as the 4th ranked Rx3 runner. Based on my data, that is a $Net of $9.63! Well ahead of the rest of the runners in the Top 4.

Hopeful that I can come up with a few nuggets such as this tonight and net a high score for some prize money. Won't be easy, but I'll sure as heck do my best!

Good luck Tim knock them dead. I believe you will do well based on what I've seen you doing lately. Win enough to wine and dine the bride in a royal way.
Tim

Contest Race #1 (Delta 3rd)
 

Track is MUDDY at Delta.

I won't be posting screenshots, as decisions will be made in real time, but I won't be playing the favored #10 off the 6/5 ML.

#1 (15-1 ML) and #5 (12-1) are FTS and are dead on the board. I have no dope on those so I'll let them beat me (and hope nobody got cute with their picks!).

Landed on #9, who came up 2nd ranked on Rx3 and gets plenty of corollary support. Sitting at 9/2 as they load.

Good start
 

Attachment 45490

Off to a good start to the evening, as #9 flies late to collar the chalk and a bomberoo to net $17.40 with 3 other handicappers.

Run up the score, one race at a time...:)

Tim I wish you great success and some nice prize $$$$$


Mitch44

Contest Race #2 (Delta 4th)
 

Landed on the 4th ranked Rx3 runner #3 (Brown's Monkey), who has the top EPR and drops from $20k down to the $5. Top APV and CR. Hoping they gun from the gate and never look back. 9-1 at load.

Whiff but no damage
 

Attachment 45491

The #2 off since October 2016 finds this group of nickel claimers to his liking. Never in a million years would I play this one either in money or contest play at those odds. #5 ranked 3rd on Rx3 gets the place, but does me nor the lead pack little damage. We maintain position going into Contest Race #3.

Contest Race #3 (Delta 5th)
 

#6 at 3/5 off 8-1 ML is nuts. Going with #2 here. High% low ML odds play at 9/2 approaching the gate. 3rd ranked Rx, 2nd ranked BL/BL and TPR. Hoping it gets 2 in a row.

Wounded but not broken
 

Attachment 45492

#4 (4th ranked Rx3) gets it done on the stretchout from 6.5 to the mile for high test trainer Arceneaux at a nice price. #7 near the bottom of Rx3 almost pops a huge price, but makes some good place balloons for 4 contestants.

That takes me down to 11th, but there is definitely an Early balance on the E/L graph with the contenders tonight.

The winners:
R1: +0.1 (6.5F)
R2: +13.7 (5F)
R3: +4.6 (6.5F)
R4: +26.8 (off a 473 day L/O line, 6.5F)
R5: +3.6 (1M)

Food for thought.