My late Pick 4, w/screenshots
 

Please , if you see something on the screen shots and have questions about pacelines selection thoughts and or anything else concerning why I have these horses, please feel free to ask

This is to help us learn different ways to think, and trust me I need a few of them, thinking ways

Now how could I have the 4 in this race , it cost me my pick 4

Can you explain to me how I should have had him

[QUOTE=pktruckdriver;76310]Now how could I have the 4 in this race , it cost me my pick 4

Can you explain to me how I should have had

Just got a Leason for not selecting the right pace lines

[QUOTE=dlivery;76313]???????

pkt
 

If you use the 5th line back which falls into the best of last 3 comparable
catagory then this horse would move up.
I know that it is a stretch going back this far and using a 6f turf race, but there are 2 routes between the last 2 sprints. Also if you look at the early-late graph for this horse he always shows late except for its last race.
I would pass up this kind of race normally but I know you have no choice in the pic4 contest.
Hope this helps

Hi Patrick,

These are some things worth keeping in mind:

1. Even though RDSS is a very good tool, you can't win every race. No one can. Sometimes this is because you make a mistake, but 40-50% of the time, it's due to the limits of RDSS (or whatever tool you're using). There is a certain quotient of randomness (luck) in gambling, which produces results which no expert can explain.

2. Re this particular race, this is a race for very bad 3yo claimers. It combines two categories of very erratic horses - 3yos and cheap horses. Neither group will very often run back to their pacelines, thus, RDSS is not going to do as well here as it does in most races. I don't play horses in either category and I would recommend the same to anyone else.

3. If you do decide to play these races, form is much more important than ability, since that is the attribute which most of these horse lack. Thus,from my perspective, the only reason to play the '4' would be that it had done something recently which none of the others had done for a long time - won a race.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Wise man!!
 

Bjennet! You are a wise person, what a great write up of the race at AQU.

Bravo B Jennet

BJ - Great Response
 

BJennet:-------------------------------------------------------------------------
That was a wise and excellent response. You seem to know what you are doing and I was wondering if you would care to list and share the type of races you would avoid. Your opinion would be well regarded by me and I think
there are some of us that would appreciate and benefit from your opinion.

Thank you, and yes the wisdom is so simple, almost makes me feel silly not seeing it.

True this type of contest will have us play races we should not normally play, but a little practice never hurts

thanks again

patrick