Hold or Fold (for Pook) - OP Race 2 (2/1/18)
 

Conditions: Clm12500, 5 1/2F for 4up.

On analysis, this is a high pressure race, with several matching early positional runners. 3-5-7-8 have shown that they can set/attend a pace of 21.8-22 and are quite bunched up. Will one of these get away from the rest? Or will we see them fighting?

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The #4 is off-form and hasn't been able to run successfully against this type of pressure. He was an early runner at one point, but has changed its running style, which begs the question: is this horse still a horse? I say that he's not. Out.

This leaves 1-2-6-9 as Other Than Early runners who can attack this high pressure match-up.

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Positionally, 2-6-9 shows strong moves. #2 made a wide winning move from the 2nd call to the stretch, sustaining that rally throughout the stretch. Looks very obvious for a conditioner who has had success at this track the past couple of seasons. Encouraging with #6 is that last out race against a 22, gaining 3 positions (7-4) and 3 lengths from the 1st to 2nd calls. People looking at Beyer numbers may overlook this one. #9 will be less obvious as it showed nothing after its layoff, but the DTV on that race suggests that the track was playing super off that day. Its race from 3 starts back (11/5 at CD) against a 21.4 gained 5 positions (9-4) and 4 lengths from 1st to 2nd call. #1 is a little bit of a mystery as it shows one race (9/30 at Del) against a 22 pace but did not do so much in the way of moving. Runs well fresh.

IMHO, #2 is the one to beat off cold dope, but #6 and #9 are likely to offer tremendous value off their morning lines provided everyone else focuses on the high figure horses.

This is strictly off your data posted: The #2 drops back or is weak 2FR/ TT at this distance isn't good. In his chart does he run like this all or in most his races?

The 8 & 7 figure to have the lead at the SC and none of the others have a better 3rd Fr to catch them. The #1 3rd FR is unknown because its a 6F line & its 3rd Fr should get better at the shorter dis. . How much is Unknown.# 7 & 8 also have a Tot Energy advantage over the closers. Finally the 7 & 8 are Pressers so they don't have to fight for the lead and can just stay within striking distance.(using % MED ESP not visual) # 3 % Med 70.8 is a toss.

Looks like 7-8-1 based on your data
Mitch44

7 8 1 2

# 3 Wins so the ? is was the line correct? Can you post its chart. Does it normally expend 70% Med?
Mitch44

Thanks for the race Jeebs. I didn't notice until too late. I was playing GP today.

Pook

Here is the chart. Definitely a hold, not a fold.

Pook

PP's for Mitch and analysis
 

Line are auto selected BLT C

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line
 

5 6 7

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Post
 

8 9

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Fwiw
 

Here is what RDSS2 shows using auto paceline selections BLT C

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