Adjusted Lines
 

Quick question all. I'm looking at the 1st race at FL today, and noticing that the last race of the 5 horse was at Penn. Also, the 3 horse is shipping from Aquaduct.

My question is this, once I have matched all my horses, I look at the adjusted line to pull out the some obvious non contenders. When calculating track equalizations into the the times, do I subtract/add from the final adjusted time or the original? I guess my question is, is RDSS doing this adjustment in the adjustment or is that up to me?

Thanks for the help.

Chad

Not understanding the heavy betting on the 1 horse. 5 is my horse from the start and am surprised with the odds he is getting. I probably shouldn't touch this one because they are so close, but good odds I'm going to give it a shot.

Going with the 5 horse to win.

Chad

RDSS does the adjustments for you. If you look at the adjusted tab you'll see the times are different from their raw counterparts. They have all been adjusted to todays distance. They also take in account the daily track variant and the inter-track variant.

Thanks Bill. As usual, I should have stayed away from that race.

Chad

What criteria do you guys use to tell yourself to stay away from a race? Should it be such a huge difference that it's so obvious who the main contender is? I am struggling on this part. I can get down to the top 4, but I am missing on the winners. I am trying to use "the matchup" technique and feel like I am doing a decent job of eliminating the ones that can't compete. However, when it comes to picking the winner out of those 4 I am missing a lot. Any advice out there to help me out?

Chad

A good place to start for learning how to pass races is FollowUp issue #74, page 15, and FollowUp issue #75, page 32.

From Howard Sartin himself....

Hi Bill
I am fairly new here also but studied and have been quite successful with Dr. Sartin's work since the mid 1980's If you read some of my post's,I was away for over 10 years and then decided to try it again.My track Detroit Race Course closed and the only way I could bet was to make a long trip over to Canada to play just Woodbine and the major California tracks.
I have asked and been answered by a great group of people on this site
Here is my take on your question:
When using the older Sartin programs,you had to enter lines by hand and in many instances,it was up to you to alter whatever times you thought should be adjusted BIG MISTAKE! I did ok because I was just playing Deroit and Tom Brohamer at a seminar in Las Vegas helped me create a Detroit only adjustment chart-it worked great!
I now play just the major NY tracks,Gulstream(in the winter along with Oaklawn) some Parx and my favorite track Woodbine
if you notice,non except for maybe Parx are major tracks. I have never played Finger Lakes or even the cheap Ohio tracks--why should I deal with low handle,cheap races and small fields? If you're stuck with just Finger Lakes,well you're like I was at Detroit.
I have 2 internet accounts that I use exclusively to bet with. I never take but maybe 10.00 to the betting center here,Hazel Park
If you are sticking with FL,one thing that I always remember is from Ted Craven when I was just getting re-started HORSES RUN JUST FAST ENOUGH TO WIN I have tied to match-up and for me,except for the basics from Jimmy Bradshaw ans Ritchie P. I tend to look at the top 5 TPR numbers and the top 3 EP and LP ratings from the LAST RACE ONLY! as advocated by Bill V. it works! not all the time,nothing does all the time!
I also then look at TOTAL ENERGY POR and then ALWAYS note the progression or regression of THE PERCEPTOR rankings for my contenders.
IMO if you follow along with guy's like Mitch 44 Ltt.Bill V, and FOR THE LEAD,I think they can guide you a lot better than I can
Personally I have found the top 2 V/DC horses to be a dynamite readout,that's just for me,perhaps it's not viable for you
I wish you success and don't want to interfere,but the folks on this sight,especially Ted Craven has helped me in ways I could have never returned to for me,very sucessful wagercapping!
Papa John

Thanks Papa John. That was actually Chad's (Lsuchqadk)'s question but I kind of do the same as you. Pick lines based on preceptor and then further eliminate by total energy rankings. That works pretty good. TE is a powerful factor. Progression and regression of the preceptor is also a very good tool for contender and paceline selection.

Actually what helped me a lot was when Mitch44 was talking about visual vs energy running style. There are pacelines that visually look like crap, but when you look at them from an energy perspective they are not that bad. I have selected lines like that with surprisingly good results. Actually I think my paceline selection has become better since looking at it like that. I used to see a lot of winners come from down in BL/BL tiers 3 and 4, but since doing it this way I'm seeing more of them up in tiers 1 and 2 now.

Visual perception of either ESP or what's a good line to pick isn't as good as the computer driven tools such as % Med. and or picking a good line. Its not the beaten lengths or positions in a line that's important, its how it handles it. I.e. a horse maintains 5th position and 5 lengths beaten but the 2nd Fr was better than the first. Well Preceptor picks that up etc. Some matchers look for a move, where parts of the race is underlined which is good but there are many races or lines that don't show that but their the correct line to be used.

Bottom line is those that use the computer will out perform anyone using the visual.( to determine a horses ESP or which is the correct line. to be used) Unless of course your name is Jim Bradshaw, a very rare exception. Even Sartin couldn't match Bradshaw and used the computer and I never heard Bradshaw tell anyone to give up the computer and in fact he just told them the opposite.
Mitch44

step 1
 

Hello Papa John

Just to be clear,

I look at every horse's last pace line and rate those lines.
This is just a preliminary step. The winner of the race almost always comes from the top 5 TPR line 1 pacelines, but my work does not end here.

Once I have the ratings for every horse, I go back and see if the last paceline may not be representative of today's race.
I then look at the most recent lines. Then I decide if the last line warrants
me to stay with the line or move down to a different pace line.
Once I have picked lines for my true contenders. I make sure to include the top 3 EP and LP rated horses, These horses usually already have the top 5 TPR's

Looking at the last line and taking the top 5 TPR"s is not how I work races
It's a recommended step in the book Pace Makes The Race (Original version)

Bill