Belmont Race 9 Richie and Mark and Beard
 

I dedicate this to 3 men who I have been very fortunate to have learned from in my early development
These three guys loved Belmont Turf races. I have great memories watching these men.

I dedicate this one to my main table pals for The Meadowlands
especially Mark F. RIP

Race 9 6/1/17

CL25000 8.0 Turf RC100 Purse 47000 3+

Top 5 TPR (line 1)
9, 4, 12,11, 6

Fulcrum Horse 11 POR EPR 77

Notes
Horse 1 Neoclassic 4 for 36 - 4 for 30 on turf Sustained
off 110 days only shows one other layoff, Running a very bad 153 TPR
No line

Horse 2 Roman Revival 4-20 No Turf record Presser
Lines 4,5,6 project well from dirt sprints. However, since I have no turf lines to rate I have no line.

Horse 3 Scratch

Horse 4 Mobridge 4-18 all 4 wins appear from turf races
Sustained. It is coming off an 117-day layoff but almost every line for this horse is after a layoff.
I will rate off line 1, a (+) against an 83 POR

Horse 5 Chunnel 3 for 36 Shows 1 win on the turf but it was more than ten races ago.
Sustained No recent turf form 2 works since last race 25 days ago
No line

Horse 6 Unbridled Ocean 6 for 23 4-17 on the turf Sustained Big class dropper.
but APV and CR are not good Comes back after a 29-day rest
Line 1 is all I can do for this one It's a (+) against CL 40's

Horse 7 Scratch

Horse 8 Matador 3 for 22 2 for 5 on the turf. Sustained .
If this horse can ever run back to line 7 it has a chance but since that win It has only beaten 5 horses form is a big issue always comes ff layoffs It show no success the last 6 times
No line

Horse 9
Powerful Instinct 6 for 52 6 for 44 S/D Sustained Comes off a 41-day layoff
The 180 TPR matches its best ever. It's workout 5 days ago looks so/so
I will rate offline 1

Horse 10 Midnight Notes Presser 8 for 49 8 for 42 S/D This one comes off a 179 layoff and a bad race But before that, it ran 6 + races out of 9 I will rate off pace line 2

Horse 11 No Texting Early 4 for 22 and 3 14 S/D Line 2 is a recent + paceline. Same distance class and surface. Comes back after 25-day freshening
line 2

Horse 12 Hidden Vow 5 for 43 2- 30 S/D Sustained
Claimed for 16 75 days ago at GP It was a winning effort
I will rate off this line Laff of 75 days should be ok, It has run well off a 47-day layoff
Line 2 is really good but its adjusted from a GP 7.5 turf line

Readouts

The 11 looks like it has a good early advantage
I think the 12 will run something in the middle of the 183-169.5 let's call it a 175 TPR
The 4 is solid at 176 .9 TPR and 98.2 LPR
The 10 is also at 176.5 but off a layoff

I think I will go with 4 10 for win
I will include the 11 and 12 somehow in an exacta

Attachment 43546

Attachment 43547

I'll go 6-11 for a WAG

Mitch44

close
 

Mitch your 6 just missed,
I did not see the race. Actually, the top 5 finishers were very close

Horse 1 wins at a nice $19.00 price

I just thought it was a cut below and with the layoff, i looked elsewhere

Here are some more screens

Attachment 43549

Attachment 43550

Attachment 43548

Belmont
 

I played Belmont all day yesterday. Layoff horses were winning all over the place. I went 0 fer on the day. I did notice, although it was late and part of my learning curve, that the early horses were struggling. Pressers seemed to be winning a lot. That 1 horse got me too.

Chad

When I saw this race I only had about 25 minutes and players were having problems all day with downloading therefore I did this real quick using Bris PP. I bet only $1.00 on the # 6 because I had to and wasn't comfortable with the race.

The race had several unknown factors in it such as layoff horses, suspicious dropdowns ,declining form etc.

The # 11 I was unsure of as he seemed to quit after about 6F, had I had RDSS I could of confirmed it by his consistent % Med and if so he'd be a toss. Just one advantage of using RDSS. He did fold up like a cheap suit thrown in the corner. I was surprised the # 12 ran as good as he did and like Bill I never did see the #1 as a contender.
Mitch44

I was at the off-track that day and did not bet the race. The friend I was with liked the 1 but got going on another race and never got back to this race to bet it. I'm not an RDSS user.

What I saw looking at the race was a horse running against the easiest competition he faced in quite a while. The second race back was very good with sizzling internal fractions of 23 and 3 in the second fraction and 23 and 4 between the half and 6 furlong marker. The horse almost won the race. The 3rd race back the horse ran 23 and 3 between the half and 6 furlong marker quitting just a bit at the end in a longer race. I'm sure the RDSS dream race would look quite good for this horse.

Visually, the horse doesn't look to make a big move but the internal fractions tell a different story.

Food for thought.

No there- there
 

Hello from Eugene Oregon


Hi Tim
I entered line 2 and 3 for horse 1,
This is not a knock on RDSS but based on the adjusted lines. Looking at the segmented screen
The 1 shows nothing special. In F1 F2 or F3

Attachment 43551

Since Entropy uses no variants and the readouts are based on the dream race I ran the race in Entropy first. Then I will go to Thoromation.

Here are everybody's rankings on the sort.
I entered 2 lines for horses 1 and 12 and took out the worst of those two.
I took out all except the top 4 and made sure to include the #1 EP/DV
horse (#1) But the 1 horse makes the best 4 already with a 19 score.

Attachment 43552

Afterward, I sent the top 4 horse Horse 1, 4, 6 and 12 to Thoromation.

The alarm flag appears because there is a gap of more than 2 points
difference in total energy

Here is using the 1 adjust

Attachment 43553

Here is using the 2 adjust

Attachment 43554

The 1 and the 4 win the race with either adjustment.

Your eyes and your buddy saw the 1

Good Skill

Bill

That's a lot of work with several different programs. Thanks for doing it.

Hope all is well.

Bill V.

Sir "Jedi Master" :cool:

Yes, I agreed with Capcondo that is a lot of work- up but IMHO, that was the "optimal way to use the Sartin Programs during that time period. Many did not go the extra steps that Bill V presented here in his work up.

Regarding Entropy, it was of upmost importance to keep the #1 Rank EP/DV horse and to throw out the "one-move" horse. Entropy complemented Thoromation... But if you had some decent variants...."oh mannn... But it was indeed, a lot of data entry and manually...I believe Bradshaw came up with AODDs to help alleviate the data entry efforts....

Thanks again!! Bill V. ;)