Parx R6 winner
 

Here are the screen shots for the winner of r6 at Parx that Mitch posted about.
I had this horse 4th before talking with Mitch who was kind enough to show me what he's doing with workouts. Thanks big guy.
Tim
Attachment 50417

Attachment 50418

The RX screen shot is based on my capping. As you can see the 5 was 2nd but I downgraded to 4th for cause. I did use it in the dd and hit the dd races 5-6[103.20,and dd races 6-7[306.40].
Tim

This horse was the only horse with a recent workout rating. It had a 93, now that's a spot play. This horse was a repeater who was definitely on the improve. Repeaters only win about 17%. That w/o says he remained sharp. Repeaters are another you can't make money on if you bet them all but being selective about which ones to bet is important.

There are races with 5 or 6 contenders, but they tend to be Md. races.

With any rating one needs to have a good corollary to separate contenders. Corollary is like ice cream with many different flavors and to each their own. I suggested CR and CSR within the program as they are not paceline dependent and many have problems with selecting a correct pace line. I also use some outside of the program as I like several flavors to my ice cream. Their all not bad but some are better than others.

It's not about winners but how you play the game to make a profit. Even a legit odd on favorite doesn't deserve a win bet. A valid question always is, how can I make money out of this race?

Nice working with you today, Tim.

Mitch44

It was a blast Mitch. Thanks for sharing your approach.
Tim

Folks also take a look at the #3. It was a Mathie lsp[I missed picking this up after all the scratches and rushing to card redone Of course it fin 2nd ex pd #309.20.
Tim

I didn't download or bet this race, but from a matchup perspective it seems interesting. There are 3 early horses, all with 5 or 6 speed points and E or EP designations out of the 4 contenders. Are 6.5f dirt at Parx running sustained? Or is this just the matchup on this race?

Notice the top LPR horse with the greatest late E/L is the winner. According the adjusted SR (which I love) it is not the fastest horse, but is up there with the 4 and 8 as the top 3. Without seeing the chart, this kind of suggests the 4, 8 and 2 burned each other up so that none of them could place as the counter energy horse. In fact, the place horse was the #2 LPR horse who also had the only other negative E/L rating. The show horse was not an early horse either, it has an RS of S1, so I am guessing it inherited show.

I would be interested to know what percentage of races go late at 6.5f dirt at parx; how big of an anomaly was this race? I don't bet Parx because it seems like it has low mutuels day in and day out, but this race proves that at least on occasion there is money to be made there.

Hi Dan. I have the EP as dominate as does Bris PPS. Bris shows 63% of winners @6.5 are e or ep. As for mutuels Parx pays very well. If you check out my and Darmars' daily recap you will find we both do very well here every week. True there are very chalky days but no more so then other tracks. Today for example thru 4 races the lowest win price has been 7.60 while the other winners have pd 10.20,15.60 &14.80 with some nice exotic payoffs.
Tim

3 out of 4 in double digits is indeed nice. I will have to give it another look.

63% early and EP means 37% P or S which if everyone is betting on E and EP might be an interesting play to look for, especially if the mutuels are this nice.

Like I said that's the Bris stat and they are pretty good. I use more factors to make my plays The matchup dictates the outcome. FYI the last 2 race winners today pd 15.80 & 8.80.
Tim