Some reality Stats
 

The fulcrum pace measures is the fastest 2nd call or "EPR". Measurable races must come from the last line, at the same distance(within1/2furlong) The line must be from today's surface.

The line must be a competitive paceline. By competitive, the fulcrum must be from a line in which the horse was equal to or less than the 5th position at the second call. and finished within equal to or less than 5 beaten lengths.

The fulcrum horse is not foolproof but not many things in racing are.

The fulcrum is, however, a very good way to estimate the POR at the second
call and also who will be close enough to compete in today's race

The concept of the fulcrum is not a handicapping factor to pick winners like BLBL or VDC or RX.

The fulcrum is a way to see how competitive each horse should be relative to the fulcrum POR. Within about 2.5 to 3 beaten lengths

1st or 2nd call

Would you be interested in something I found surprising?

This is from my complete model/profile from the just ended Santa Anita meet.

There were a total of 696 races

I not only exported every race and every day, into my RDSS model
I also added my own interest factors, after exporting I used the result
chart to record the winner position and BL at the 1st and second call.
of the WINNER or the race.

Here is an example
Attachment 48226

The second call BL and position actually show a better indication percent of the eventual winner

Here is a little breakdown of the position and BL of all 696 winners.
They were equal to or less than 5th position and equal to or less than 5 beaten lengths.

The winner of 92% percent of all 696 winners was equal
to or less than 5 BL at the second call (EPR)

This is a very good supporting factor when looking for those competitive
finished for your fulcrum.

Attachment 48227


Good Skill
Bill

Bill

Nicely done

Jeff

Thanks
 

Hi Terry (Sergwin)

Thanks for the nice comments It is great to see you back again

Jeff Thanks to you, I hope you are doing well
I will be at the Oceans 11 casino with the gang at the table west (north) :)

Brooks and his new love of pick 3's will join us

Bill

Glad to hear you will be there and Dad too

Jeff

Nice stats Bill.
What percentage of drop would you get if you used 4 beaten lengths at the second call?
Rmath

4th Position and 4 BL
 

Hi Richard

Here are the stats.

The total races are now 715, with one day remaining

I reworked the stats based on 4 or less position and 4 or less BL at both the
1st and 2nd call.

Attachment 48235

Attachment 48236

Thanks
 

Bill, thanks again for the update.
88% within 4 lengths is very good.
While I do not know the average number of qualifyrs in each race using 4 or 5 beaten lengths , your research is impressive.
Keep up the good work.
May your health continue to improve.
Am looking forward to meeting up with you and everyone else at Saratoga.

Rmath

Good work Bill