1/18/14 GG 8th
 

And a race up at Golden Gate....

Interesting early scenario…... The only horses ever on the lead at the 1C in a sprint are the 1 and 7, but that was only one time each. Looking at the break positions though (Thanks to Bill L. for giving a very nice reminder about that last week) the 6 looks most likely to get the early lead (3 1st's, 1 2nd, and 2 3rd's) . I see the 7 as the OTE contender closest to the pace so I’ll take the 6 over the 7.

The 6 has nice breaking positions, drops back and power moves, and fights. What more do I want in a paceless race. I'm with you on this one Pete.

No dice on this one Tim....

At the risking of red boarding, I have a few comments. One, I did not see or evaluate the race until it was over. But first a little refresher from postings by The Hat anc Richie:

"PACE-LESS RACE

... Once we project the pace, the horses will be matched against this pace to decide if they are contenders.

Find the fastest race at today’s distance and use the race as the projected pace of today’s race. Remember, we will not use the beaten lengths to identify the projected pace.

All of the horses are matched to this pace. Horses that can’t match the pace are not contenders."

and

"While every race is different, the influence that pace has on the competitors in today’s race is predictable. Like human beings, thoroughbred horses have defined behavioral patterns, or running styles. To understand the Match-Up, it is essential that you learn to identify running styles and learn to match these running styles. Once this has been accomplished it is possible to decide what is going to happen in today’s race.

Horses finding themselves out of position, or in a different pattern, react differently. An Early horse that cannot get the lead may “sulk” and quit running. A late horse on the lead may run too fast, and exert his energy, or he may run too slow and get caught from behind. This type of horse usually reverts back to his original running style in his next race."

and,

"...a “Paceless” race" is a "race that does not have an Early horse. When I approach this type of race I do not worry about who will take the lead, but the running lines of horse that have run against the fastest pace. Remember, I do not worry about the last race, but the “power” lines of the horses. I always look at the last race, but do not limit myself to using it."

finally,

"I remember “The Hat” stating that in races such as these we should find the horse that is a presser that races positionally closest to the fastest pace. These horses generally find themselves on the lead and they “freak out” as they are not accustomed to doing this. These horses should be tossed and horses who have demonstrated an ability to race well against this type of pace become the plays." (This was actually a comment from a question asked of Jim Bradshaw.)

In an example race, The Hat said this: "No horse in the race has ever been in front so what I do is look for first call positioning either closest to the front or further back, with up to 3 beaten lengths."

So lets look at this race and how it corresponds to what the Hat taught. I see the first 5 horses as S and the last two as P types. Both the 1 and 7 had once taken the lead in their races and but the 1 failed to maintain its lead; the 7 wired a maiden field, but since has not challenged for the lead in any race. We can talk more about the 7's wire to wire effort once we start to talk about success against the fastest pace of race.

The 1 is 0-12 at or near the level of todays race and its best race is 110.3 (fifths) from line 3. He raced against a 109.4 in its last and faded. Out. he never raced near the lead since that effort.

The fastest pace of last race comes from the 2 at 22.1-45.2-57.3-109.4 and in line two he won against 22.2-45.2-57.2-109.3, so we should compare all horses to line 2. Who qualifies. The 2, the 3 from line 3 (but this horse bothers me in that in each successive race the paces were slower and even though this horse did well, it raises a flag in my mind.), the 4, the 6 (line 2)

The 5 has been away for 91 days and ran best against 110.3; the 7 ran best vs 110.0

Positions run in each horses Power Race:

2: (22.2-45.2-57.2-109.3) 8-5, 4-2, 3 nk. 1 nk
6: (22.1-45.1-57.1-109.3) 5-3.25, 4-2.5, 1 hd, 1-3/4
3: (22.0-45.0-57.2-109.4) 5-2-1/2, 2-hd, 1-2.5, 1-6
4: (22.1-45.1-57.1-109.4) 4-5, 4-3.5, 1-hd, 1-1/2
5: (23.2-46.3-58.3-110.3) 2-1.5, 2-1/2, 1-1/2, 1-1.25
7: (23.-46.0-57.4-110.0) 4-2, 4-1.5, 1 hd, 1 hd

The 5 ran 5 ticks slower against slower internal fractions, so he should be OUT; similarly the 7 is 5 ticks slower at the 2nd call and would be at best 5the at the stretch call, OUT.

The 3 is closest positionally to the lead at the first call with the fastest 1c time of 22.0, so if he inherits the lead he may not be comfortable. Obviously, from his Power Race he went on to win, but subsequent races against MUCH slower fractions found him no where near the lead; this horse probably ran the equivalent of a one time on the lead horse that reverted to its normal style. The 5 ran close as well but to a much slower pace.

This leaves the 2 and 6 as the best performers against the fastest pace and a nice price. The 2 also reversed the tandem from its last race with the 4 horse.

Did the race run back to the break info, hardly. The 5 and 6 had the most 1st or 2nd breaks; the 6 broke 1st and got caught in a duel with the 4 and 5; the 5 broke 4th dueled with the 4 and 6. The 1 and 2 ran to their normal back of the pack positions with the 2 moving 6-5-3-1 to win @5.4/1 odds.

Hi Bill, very well stated. I also remember Richie teaching from the Hat the method of finding the horse most likely to take the lead in a paceless race and throwing him out as an uncomfortable leader if you will, then matching OTE against that runners pace of race. Doing that in this race I would have identified the 6 horse as the uncomfortable leader. I got stuck though seeing the 1st break positions and races where it did well from 2nd by a head at 1C and fighting for the lead or on the lead 2C. If I hadn't then I would have been lead to a more successful call in this race.

Thanks again Bill, your feedback is always good with me!

Pete

I am not sure that the 6 should be discarded so easily. In the past he found himself on the lead at the half or within a head or 1/2 4 times, won twice and was 2nd by hd twice, so he was not necessarily freaking because of that positioning.

Using the Hat's methods we end up with a "splitzacta" our horses finishing 1st and 3rd, what Jim often said would happen, so at least for this race the method worked.