work up race GP race 1 1/26
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This race was requested yesterday
It is race 1 from Gulfstream Park 8.0 on the Turf The race is a 16000 claimer for 4+ F non winners of 3 races lifetime The ML favorite is #5 1.6/1 followed by 3.5 4.5 to 1 then a gap to two horses at 8/1 a 12/1 andd 2 15/1's My next step is to mark the running styles Attachment 42144 |
Fulcrum and running styles
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There is no fulcrum , the 6 is a possibility with that fast 111.3 but it was at
8.5 furlongs, The 111 is also aberrant, the 6 has never run competitively against a 111.3 before Running styles Horse 1 Sus Horse 2 Press Horse 3 Sus Horse 4 Sus Horse 5 Sus Horse 6 Early Horse 7 SP Horse 8 EP Attachment 42145 |
last line
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The ML favorite has a big advantage on TPR of 177.1
the 6 and 7 are next with 168 and 169 just ahead of the 2,3 and 4 The 8 and 1 have low numbers Every horse is runs late on the Early Late sticks Attachment 42146 |
Pacelines
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These are not my selected pace lines
i just made screenshots of the PP's while the last line was auto selected. Please look over the horses and come up with your choices for pace lines I will post mine in a little while Thanks Bill Horse 1 2 3 4 Attachment 42147 Attachment 42148 Attachment 42149 Attachment 42150 |
next
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1.../IMG_0203.jpeg
I used TimeformUS's adjusted times for this exercise. When assessing 7.5f lines, I made some tinkers to the final fraction chart and made it into a Route race. With line selections, I was looking for some consistency as far as EPR/LPR was concerned. Anything that looked outside the norm, I dismissed. Tampa invader (5) on the drop doesn't appear overpowering. 3 and 7 were hopelessly out of it so they were deleted. |
My look
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Hope you had a chance to think the race over .
Here are my thoughts I used the last line for every horse except the #1 and #8 I try to avoid 7.5 pace lines cause the program treats them as sprints , For me the less adjustments needed the better I feel . Attachment 42160 Here is how I take the next step using RX and VDC and to some extent the match up First thing I do, once I get the phase 1 readouts. I make any horse that is not in the top 3 EPR or LPR and not within 5 points of the top 2 TPR horses , I make them non win contenders The 3 and 8 are non contenders in phase 1 and VDC I dropped the 6 to a ITM only because its a early runner, it has the worse LPR and the 5 has a better TPR So My top 5 horses are Attachment 42161 |
Hi Bill
Quick question I don't see why several of these horses weren't marked as NF and not given a line. If a horse doesn't have a + or (+) line in top three do you simply give them the first line and then cull the herd using phase 1 and vdc ? Thanks |
when I handicap I will just not bother with horses i "know" have no chance
and that only show 0 pace lines . When I am asked to do workups I DO select the last line for every horse. FIRST I do this so people learn the basics first. Running the last line on every horse is a PMTR guideline. So in demos and work ups I select the last line and let the phase 1 numbers tell me who is a non contender This is Important .. IN phase 1 what 1 horse does has nothing to do with the ther contenders readouts A horse who gets a 95 EPR gets a 95 no matter what , If another horse gets a 100 EPR the 95 EPR still gets a 95. Phase 1 is not energy based. Its velocity and deceleration based. You can add or take away bad lines and it does not change other horse ratings You can not do this with energy based Sartin progrms That is why with energy based programs you have to use good + or (+) pacelines . |
Thank you very much, I understand the difference now.
Thanks |
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