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-   -   M4$16/2 Nov 5-gandalf380 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10696)

The Pook 10-31-2016 11:36 AM

M4$16/2 Nov 5-gandalf380
 
1 Attachment(s)
Wiz

gandalf380 11-04-2016 11:27 PM

5 Attachment(s)
Breeders Cup Classic Santa Anita Race 12

mick 11-05-2016 12:15 PM

Gandalf, thanks for this great contest race. It will make the afternoon even more exciting, if that's possible.

#1 (Effinex) to Win and Place
#6 (Melatonin) to Win

Projected pace - 47.3/1:11.2/2:00.1
That's Chrome's running line two back. While there's a lot of speed, I don't see the winner coming from more than a length or two off the pace. So, I'll call it Early. My contenders are 1, 4, 6, 10.

If Arrogate wasn't in the race, Chrome's M/L would be 3-5 or some such. He's a beast. But we all watched the Travers and saw Arrogate demolish a fine 3YO field. Can he do it again? Not against this older, tougher bunch, but he'll affect the pace. Chrome should win but Arrogate might wear him down enough for another old campaigner like Effinex or Melatonin to catch them at the wire.

mick

gandalf380 11-05-2016 01:01 PM

#8 Shaman Ghost scratched

gandalf380 11-05-2016 03:24 PM

I am also expecting a pace of 1:11.2

Plenty of speed here. I look for the 2 and the 6 to sit off the pace and on strong in the stretch.

#2 Frosted
#6 Melatonin

both to win.

lostandwon 11-05-2016 05:41 PM

#4 FPLR of 46.1 – 109.3
Not sure of the proj pace but clicked in 47 – 110.8 by eyeballing 4 & 10 fractions
ID’d 4, 6, & 10 as E
4 I concur with Mick “a beast”; 6 more ep-ish but will want up there; 10 could he?

1 & 2 Pressing with 5 trying to press and the others S

I see 4 as the best horse and able to take the 10 in a duel. I like the 6 with emotional ties from the SA hdcp. Line 4 would do it. However, I think he’ll get caught up in the E.

As far as closing on pace:
1 don’t think can hang
2 sits 4-5 position which is good if front 3 burn but not a lot of fast fractions
5 has closed and won @ 8.5f but recent efforts?
9 interesting - sits a little far back but has ran against fast fr’s

Hate to bet the fave…BUT
Bet:
Win 4

mowens33 11-05-2016 08:15 PM

Don’t see anyone beating Chrome, but I will bet the 6 Melatonin Win and Place.

cigar 11-05-2016 08:23 PM

Long live the King
 
No one in this race can beat chrome! Period.

I single the QUEEN Beholder and today KING Chrome

Win #4

Pat C. 11-05-2016 08:38 PM

The 4 will probably put these away. But if the pace is too contested the #1 should be close up.

Win & Place on the #1

The Pook 11-07-2016 09:35 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Chart


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