No more preps for Friesian Fire
 

Larry Jones has announced that he plans to train Freisian Fire right up until the Kentucky Derby and forego further prep races. One has to wonder if he is making the right call.

A six-week layoff has not been historically conducive to winning the Kentucky Derby. At Derby time statistics take on an even greater importance for me as a handicapper. When I took a stand against Curlin winning because he was unraced at 2 some people, including my significant other, couldn't understand. The fact remains, however, that if I choose to bet on something that happens 3% of the time I will lose 97% of my wagers. I'd much rather be on the other side of the mathematics. In the case of Curlin I was right.

I have not researched the statistics regarding this kind of layoff prior to the Derby, so if anyone has the exact numbers or any thoughts on the matter I would be interested to hear them.

I will say that I thought FF's performance in the Louisiana Derby was great, no doubt about it, but I think it has been somewhat overblown. And I wonder if perhaps the Jones camp has decided that Old Fashioned is, indeed, the superior animal.

Either way, I am really rooting for Jones to win it this year.

I agree that Freisian Fire's race looke impressive until you look at the pace. The track was off but I don't think it was that slow. The splits went 24.12 48.75 1:13.34 with a final time of 1:43.2. That's a half mile in almost 49 seconds. That is slow. He won't have my money in the derby.

Tim

I agree Tim...looking at all the route races that day..this pace was pathetic..he went just as fast as a maiden race and a 17000 claimer was in faster time...

Friesen Fire took that race IN THE SLOP, which slows down everything, SO EASILY, that this one was not tested: he just ran off under wraps. That race did not appear to come close to much more than a public work out. Why would any rider force a colt to move any faster than necessary?

It might be hard to evaluate one that came into the big dance in such an easy prep. One will have a hard time evaluating how much more gas is available in the un-used and un-tested tank.

THAT race has produced ONE Derby winner anyway, Grindstone. Not the greatest record of colts from that race but I think Funny Cide ran 2nd to Empire Maker after being moved from third on the DQ of Kafwain.