Appy
 

Thanks, you bring up a very good point

However its the public that let this 8/1 morning line horse go off at 33/1

The crowd and the Parx morning line maker are just about always on the same page.

Maybe they all thought top rider Hector Caballero could not win 3 races in a row.. but he got the triple with the 2
Good Skill
Bill

Bill,

As you know, I am a matcher. You will rarely see a maiden or non-maiden that shows this ability to fight. This horse literally fought in his last 8 races at the first call. Several of those races, the horse was a multi-call fighter. Like Paul, I would have bet this horse. What's interesting is the horse ran from off the lead this time. It goes that way sometimes.

Hope all is well.

Tim

Top of the morning
 

They come around ........

Parx race 5 The 6 is a E 8 There were 2 first time starters so I took it easy on the bet, The ML was 2.5/1 but they let the 6 go off at 8.30/1

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Great stuff Bill!

Nice one Bill. Fast early fighters were one of the Hat's favorite plays.

Tim

Why not
 

This was as easy as it can be
No value, The 2 went off at 1/5 and went right to the lead and jogged
to a easy win


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[QUOTE=For The Lead;88799]Sorry you missed getting a bet down on this horse.
Since you are not familiar with putting screen shots in your posts, I thought I would put up mine. I don't know if these are the horses and lines you used, but, it's what I used. By the way, I was not watching AQU on Saturday, so I didn't have this winner either. It's a good example though.

The important thing to note in most or all of these examples is that the winner 1) needed the lead or very near the lead, 2) had the best EPR, but was probably not within 5 points of the best TPR. So keeping the best three EPR and the best three LPR and any horse in the top five keeps the contender selection process alive.

These NTL types do best with little competition on the lead. Just because a horse once went to the lead does not mean it will end up there today. You need the preponderance of action on the part of the need to lead types to project them against today's pace setter. More often than not the one time leaders will lag in the middle of the pack and let the early horse alone.

2nd call maidens: one of the MOST reliable angles out there. Best 2nd call., and it helps to have a good e/l number as well

Another version of this early Maiden angle that I like is a EPR that is a new pace top for the horse, and is at or near the top EPR for the field. The #1 EPR shows he fits class wise with this field.

Aother benefit of such a effort is conditioning. I had a trainer once tell me that the best conditioning a horse could get was a good 1/2 mile effort in a race. I tend to agree with him.