Contender Separation Strategies - using CSR & CR Class Rating
 

This is a question for another forum, but what situation(s) would you keep the top CR/CSR runners that are outside the Top 5 in TE as contenders over those in the Top 5 TE that don't rank as high in CR/CSR?

I guess what I am asking is for you to explain what you wrote up above, so that I have greater clarity as far as utilizing such strategy.

Thanks!

Some definitions:

CR = Class Rating: APV (relative rank of purses competed for successfully) + consistency (in-the-money %) + Earnings per Start.
CSR = Composite Speed Rating: weighted composite of last 4 Adjusted Speed Ratings
TE = Total Energy (F1 + F2 + F3 velocity)

Consider:

1. chosen line was 3rd back, and ends up TE rank 6, race was not a bad one, but horse was laid-off 60+ days then ran 2 not bad races to return but in slower times (perhaps prompted by Pace, or perhaps horse stopped running after 4f or at the Stretch – still ‘good-within-bad’ races, ‘signs of life’, etc). Horse had been competing well previously and got a good CR for those efforts. Perhaps it is a lone Early, or competitive with a few other such Early types. In this scenario, respecting the CR credentials keeps a horse in the running for bets which may be profitable (and perhaps in other than Win pools)

2. In a collection of maiden allowance or claiming races, a horse has been mildly competitive and now drops to lower maiden claiming ranks, perhaps facing nominally faster maidens who have not raced in high maiden ranks. Possibly, this horse ranks worse than many on TE ranks, but since it has faced higher purses and perhaps run not badly, it should be considered in this cheaper company: the CR ranking will reveal some of this (as will a cursory examination of the PPs, though the CR rank may serve to prompt you to do just that in more detail).

In the above scenarios, also considering the CSR gives the CR rating a kind of current reality check: what collection of recent final times has the horse faced - relative to the rest. If it compares well, and if the horse may be not out of form or not necessarily 'peaked' - then it may measure up to its CR ratings. Beware though lower CSRs which are influenced particularly from a bad last race which may be excusable (wrong surface, too high race competition, trouble, bad pace scenario, etc).

As a finesse to the initial suggestion involving Total Energy: you could use VDC Top 4 (or BLBL Top 5) as an equal cutoff to consider Primary Contenders.

There are probably many more scenarios. Not always would I recommend keeping a Top 3 CR horse blindly: consider recent form. Examples work best for illustrating a concept (just as examples are what created the concept in the first place). If I see any good ones, I’ll post them here. Others, feel free to chime in – either to refine the initial suggestion, or offer examples illustrating the point.

Ted

My two cents on this is: CR over APV, APV at one time was the bomb however since then it has been destroyed by State bred races & their high payoffs, payoffs for finishing out of the money and high purses for cheap horses where casino gambling funds purses.

My experience is that CR also beats CSR and APV hands down. The biggest problem with CSR is that it doesn't consider surface, distance etc., to todays conditions therefore it distorts the rating. While the last race generally should be weighted more it also doesn't consider todays conditions and trainers that use the last race as a prep which destroys its effectiveness. Personally I would elimate it from the program however its not my choice or program. Also it doesn't consider all 3 Fr.'s as the Doc expounded on and only considers final time.

Ted is correct in that a player would be better off scratching from the worst BL/Bl and or V/DC. ( And or stick to the top 4 ) Primarily because it considers total pace( Which Doc said was a representation of class.) It also considers the match-up, surface & distance, and conditions of todays race. That is if you picked correct lines and don't buy into the false narrative of always using the last line which wasn't Doc's teachings.

One can't go far wrong with CR however and it should be inclusive but the top 4 BL/BL and V/DC is the best, and your answer. Ted is correct.
Best of luck,

Mitch 44