Race using Rmath's method
 

Decided to try a race using Rmath's method,not being a RDSS user I
tried it with Valm and Synergism 3

I had whittled out some of the non contenders first


Result 5-8-2

5 paid 6.80

5-8 ex 116.00


The 8 which Valm picked 1st on VDC went off 23-1


Just to let you know on the early-late sticks the 5 was lone early
ended up winning by 10

Nothing to prove here just had some free time

pace lines
 

Hi Jeff
Just to fill in some blanks

Here are the top 5 CSR and as is almost always the case they also
had plus recent races at a comparable distance and class level

The top 5 CSR
Attachment 33179
My lines
Attachment 33180
The 5 wins the first two segments but is 4th on blbl
Attachment 33181

Thanks for the workup of the race, Bill..

So let me understand this race.....

#5 pays $6 and but in the readout it is ranked no better than 4th B/L

Is something amiss....??????

Yes, Shoeless mentioned that he was the lone early and wins by 10 lengths..

My point here is that he should rank in the top two...but at least the #8 was ranked on top,,,,bigger odds...

Bill,

If you were using Rmath's method you would not have played the 8 as
he was 7th in CSR.

Also this is the danger of including all horses and not weeding some out
as there was no reason the 9 should be in your contenders

Have to say as you showed me once that Val4 is a very compact
program and easy to navigate through.

Here is the early\late screen

Jeff who used the 9 horse ?

Lone Speed I have the 5 ranked 4th on BLBL but the 8 is shaky
I used line 3. I do have the excuse in line 1 of its a poor effort
but it is its first try at the current TP meet, Line two is from CD
and a open 5000 claimer were the horse was outclassed
Line 3 is a Plus line but then again it is its best ever race and its
over 40 days ( best ever ) and 90 days - (form cycle) old
At 23/1 for me it is not a full win bet but a sure place or show or underneath
in exacta contender
As Jeff shows the Early late graph shows the 5 as a lone Early
RDSS shows it controls the first two fractions, Who is going to close on this horse ?

Thoromation shows all 5 contenders a Early energy
Thoromation also uses a more balanced third fraction in EXDC
It shows the 5 as the winner in F1, and competitive on the turn and winning the race

Attachment 33194



Attachment 33196

Bill,

Thanks for the workup of the race

There you go Thoromation had exacta in order

Not that it makes much difference but you used all the horses in the
beginning and the CSR on the 8 was 7,if you had left out the 9 it would
have been 6th.

So
 

Okay so now I understand that you mean If "a person" does not
use horse 9 than the 8 is CSR 6 not 7 If that is the case since I did not use
the 2 is the 8 now 5th on CSR ?

So does a top 5 CSR win or a Top 5 useable plus recent pace line win ?
Attachment 33199