M4$ Feb27 Challenge5 (PeteC)
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Challenge5
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2/27 Tup Race #7
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Let's go out west to Capcondo's neck of the woods, Turf Paradise. The 7th is a two-turn 7.5 furlong turf race with a field of 9. Post time is 3:30 local, 5:30 east coast and 2:30 west coast.
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turf
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my look
Running Styles Early 8 6 EP 1 SP 4 7 9 Sus 5 2 3 Fulcrum #4 87EP My look The 1 is the 9/5 ML fav should be a pest to the 8 The 6 and 8 cancel each other out. The 8 could go wire to wire I like the 7 but although the works are good 320 days is a long layoff If I had to bet my top choice is #4 my "could" win is the 8 but I have no feel for this one. Pass Attachment 39600 |
TuP Turf 2/27
Nice Race Pete.
Thanks for putting this up. On first pass, it looks like the 8 and 6 are the speed with the 1 right behind. But, I think there is more speed than that. The 4 runs his best races near the lead and the 12 year old gelding the 7 will be much closer off a long layoff. I'm looking for a pace at the about distance of 22.4 45.4 for the first two calls and I'm looking for a sustained horse. This leaves me with the 3 and the 9. The 3 was ahead of the 9 in the last race. The 3 is my choice to win the race. Tim |
I see this running OTE because the #6 should press the #8 hard for the first 2 calls and the #8 needs a clear lead to win. Can't decide between the Pressers #3 & #7 or the Sustained #9. Any of the three could win. Believe I will pass this time.
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TUP 7
Two earlies, 8 and 6. I think the 6 will be trouble for the 8 and the 8 post is hard at this distance for a need to lead. With a projected 23.1/46.5/110.6 I am left with the 3,4,7 that have handled this pace from off. 7 has been away for a while but has shown an ability to be competitive with a layoff. So I am going all OTE this time. Unless something weird happens odds wise I will go with these. 7,4 Pook |
Tp r7
Pace:23.4 - 47.8
Contenders: 1-2-3-4-7 OTE Win: 3-4 Sorry for the lack of write up - cheers for Grand Cayman Island |
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I will go with the 8 to steal this race, should be better 2nd back
The one should get first wack. My Picks 8 and 1 |
tup
The 2 earlies are the 6 and the 8.I’m projecting a 46.4 111.1 off the last line of the 6. The 8 used to be able to do 46 and still go on and win but not lately. I don’t see either surviving so I’m looking OTE.
1- Should be sitting third behind the 2 earlies. Has only faced today’s pace way down in line 10. I feel this one is going to get caught up in the pace with the other two…OUT 2- Faced a faster pace in line 10, where it made a mild move to finish 4th by 3. I’d like to see more than that…OUT 3- No races here against today’s pace, also beaten by two horses in a slower tandem race last time…OUT 4- 2nd by a nose against today’s ½ mile pace. Also won against today’s ¾ mile pace in line 7. Has done well from 6th position which could be the best spot today…IN 5- One turf route against a similar pace, ugly and OUT 7 3 wins against similar or faster pace. The 12 yo is coming back off of a layoff since last spring and is a true hard knocker…..IN 9- never faced quite this fast a paceand has won from 9 or 10 lengths back at first call. Probably a bit too far back today…OUT So I’m down to the 4 and 7...I will take them both to win.. |
Ohhhh....Tim and Cigar I thought you guys had that. Would have been a good score. Looks like Mike takes home the consolation prize.
Pook |
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