Let's Talk Longshots 09-23-18
 

Let's Talk Longshots 09-23-18

It would be interesting, at least as far as I'm concerned, to view the conception of those on this board that may focus and have the same interest as mine, in finding longshots.

QUESTIONS? How does one go about finding them and how should they be bet?

Betting horses successfully ( under 4-1 odds) should produce a 10 -18% R.O.I while betting horses successfully and selectively in the range of (9-1 to 19-1) should produce a hefty 70 -80% R.O.I.

A major multiple question to ask oneself in betting longshots would be:
Do you have the patience, discipline and bankroll to sustain long run-outs?
..................................................................................................

Please feel free to enter your longshot picks here.

Here is a Race That interests me.
I have 2 horses in this race and I will bet both of them W/P if they are 9-1 or better at the gate,
If the odds hold up and they do not scratch,

BEL R2.....#7 Herecomesthejudge ML 12-1..............Bet W/p
...............#3 Kid Chocolate ML 20-1........................Bet W/P

BEL R3.....#7 Mihos ML 10-1....................................Bet W/P

BEL R7......#3 Bonita Bianca ML 12-1........................Bet W/p

Top down
 

Hello Bill

Good Skill with your picks

As far as my opinion, I guess I do the opposite of looking for longshots
I start with the favorite and work down from there

I look for the horses that have run a plus race in their last race
or after valid excuses against today's competition level.

Usually, longshots are deficient in some aspect compared to the top 3
favorites, That said I generally don't have a play with anything over 8/1

In the second race at Belmont
The ML favorite looks tough
I hope you're correct and catch the 3 and or the 7

Attachment 47190

Thanks Bill,
I guess we all have our way of doing things.
It's all good.
The bottom line is to show a profit in the long run.

R2 was a bust. My picks finished in the last 2
positions.

Hi Bill

I am having success betting formful horses, The trick is to have and use a rebate betting site, betting heavy, ( within my comfort zone) and using a conservative progressive betting money management practice.

Hello again Mr. Bill(oh no! Mr. Bill!)
-I sure hope you are still recovering oj
k. You are still in my prayers,along with FTL
I had a really bad 2 days this Sat and Sun.playing Belmont and Gulfstream
So I read your post about a money management system and hoping you can give me some statistics--Is it Kelly? I now have 700.00 to work with and I now realize that 2 and 4 dollars just ain't gonna get it! I do not play any exotics except for a rare double and maybe a 20 cent pic 3 or 4 at Belmont. Usually say 99% of the time it is win only and some place if horse is going off at 8-1 or up(doc's advice)
Sure hope you can give me some pointers my friend
Papa John

Hope
 

Hello Papa John

I am a little tired today . Good days/bad days situations health wise
I will be glad to post something that you will like and should show a profit. Soon as I feel better.

John over the last few days how many times would you say you won two races in a row ?

The key to my money management system which I learned from a video by Dave Schwartz
Is as long as you can follow a loss by having 2 consecutive wins and your over all hit rate is at 50% or close you will profit

Thanks for getting back so quickly. Over the last few days,including my last 2 bad days.it's 4 over 33 races
Take you're time Bill====I so much appreciate all the advise you have given me so far
I recovered from prostrate cancer and a severe heart attack in 2013. It had really slowed me down but I try as hard as I can to be there for my little 12 year old grandchild,Gracie. The love of my life and she is what keeps me going
All my best as always Bill
John