Oaks Friday Race 11
 

Early look

Oak Grade 1 1,000,000 3-year-old Fillies 9 furlongs

Top 5 TPR (line 1 )
14, 7, 1, 4, 6

Fulcrum POR Nobody's last line is from CD

Notes

Horse 1 Ever So Clever Sustained 20/1
Line 1 Grade 3 win

Horse 2 Lockdown Early 20/1
Line 1 Grade 2 Place

Horse 3 Mopotism Presser 20/1
Line 2 75 stakes win

Horse 4 Paradise Woods Early 2.5/1
Line 1 Grade 1 win

Horse 5 Jordans Henny Early Presser 30/1
Line 1 Grade 2 3rd

Horse 6 Vexatious Presser 20/1
Line 1 Grade 3 3rd

Horse 7 Farrell Early 5/1
Line 1 Grade 2 win

Horse 8 Sailors Valentine Early 30/1
Line 1 Grade 1 win

Horse 9 Wicked Lick Sustained 30/1
Line 1 Grade 2 Place

Horse 10 Miss Sky Warrior Early 4.5/1
Line 1 Grade 2 win

Horse 11 Tequilita Sus-Presser 20/1
Line 1 Grade 2 place

Horse 12 Daddys Lil Darling Sustained 20/1
Line 1 Grade 1 Place

Horse 13 Abel Tasman Sus Presser 5/1
Line 1 Grade 1 place

Horse 14 Salty Sustained Presser 6/1
Line 1 grade 2 win

Horse 15 Summer Luck Sustained 30/1
Line 2 Grade 2 place

Attachment 43446

Hi Bill,

I figured I would jump here and render my opinion.
I see the race as going Fast - Late
I like the 10 at 9/2 odds.
My 2 bet choices would be 10 & 4

Here is what I believe to be an accurate representation of speed points and running style. This should give you an idea of how the race should run and which horses qualify by speed and fit the race.

Using the Marathon Method which got me The Oaks last year at double digits. Nine panels is not a marathon but I used it here anyway.

Top 5 and positions
#4 Paradise Woods 96.1 1st
#14 Salty 96.5 1st
#13 Abel Tasman 95.9 3rd
#5 Jordan's Henny 96.5 3rd
#11 Tequilita 96.5 4th

4/14 for the win.
Pook

Hi Pook,

Excuse my ignorance but I never heard of the Marathon Method. Maybe you could clue me in.

Hi Parts,

It's a Matchup spot play in the Hatcheck.
You'll find it here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=2026&page=3

Pook

Marathon Method
 

Summary
Jim's thinking in these long races is that to WIN a horse has to have taken control of the race at the mile mark.

He feels there has been most of the energy exerted by the field at that stage and for someone to overcome a bunch of horses AFTER the mile mark is just too difficult to do with the horses energy having been depleted by that stage.

So he started stopping and picking the winner at the 8f point of the races. It's amazing in it's basic SIMPLICITY and POWER in my opinion.

This is Jim Bradshaw's method of working marathon distance races.

Richie P posted

Odds an hour out:

#4 Paradise Woods 1/1
#14 Salty 9/1
#13 Abel Tasman 11/1
#5 Jordan's Henny 60/1
#11 Tequilita 30/1

Can't be on a 1/1 in a 14 horse field.
Will have to see. Maybe bet all of them but the 4.
Pook

Odds look stable.

#4 Paradise Woods 1/1
#14 Salty 9/1
#13 Abel Tasman 10/1
#5 Jordan's Henny 60/1
#11 Tequilita 30/1

Pass on the 4 at 1/1
14/13 for the win.
Pook

Kentucky Oaks
 

I'll take the #13 off a bounce in her previous against the favorite. Bred to love the slop.