Matchup Challenge Mar 28/29 by Seven Furlongs
 

Seven Furlongs has kindly asked to join the "roster of posters". So even though he is one furlong short of a mile :p(just foolin around man) I think we will look forward to what he has in store for us this week. 7UP

For Saturday's Challenge I have selected the Florida Derby, Race 14(!?) on Saturday's Gulfstream Park Card. The race is, in a way, Upstart's Revenge, as a somewhat terrible ride from Jose Ortiz in the stretch resulted in a DQ last time out. Also, the Pletcher armada lurches toward the Derby with a new conscript in Materiality.

I have attached, or should be attached, the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances for the race.

This race is also the DRF Race of the day, so if you want to fiddle around with a limited version of Formulator, here is the link:

http://www.drf.com/race-of-the-day

Thanks again for posting Andre and supplying 2 formats for everybody. Good choice.

Great way to see what Formulators all about, check it out its an excellent handicapping tool!

SF, thanks!!

Mike

Fl Derby
 

Not much to choose from So i will go with the Fountain of Youth Tandem race and choose the 4 and 9

Bob

The FPLR is the 7 Materiality, one of only two that ran 9 furlongs on dirt last out and while that might not mean much it was a pretty nice pace vs the rest of these.

My projected pace is 23.4-47.4-111.3-136.2 which was done at GP, btw. I see the 2 and 3 as wanna be pace setters that are weak; The 4 and 9 ran vs this early pace and finished slowly, so they are out; the 5 and 8 are NQ and out; the 6 might be a pace threat but finishes slowly, out.

This leaves the 1 and 7

1: 23.0-46.3-111.1-143.3; 6-4-3

7: 23.4-47.4-111.3-136.1-149.1: 2-2-1

The 7 can lead by two at the mile call in 136.1. While some in this field have run faster mile times all have been one turn miles. I think its possible that the 7 gets drawn too close to the lead, but look at the 1.

4 ticks faster at 1/4; 6 ticks faster at 1C; 2 faster @ 2C. If you positionally adjust this horse he wins.

My pick is the 1 on top, then the 7.

Good luck

Does anyone have a preference for Sunday's race? Sprint or route? Dirt or turf?
Claimer or stakes race?

Andre be selfish. Pick one that plays to your own strengths. Also it is not necessary to post more than one a weekend. Put up another only if you feel like it.

Pook

For Florida's Derby, here are my general thoughts:

Not a lot of speed in this race, as it is cheap and slow. I think the only reason why the speed horses are entered in this race is to try and fight for either 4th or 5th place prize money. Other than that, I don't see either the 2, 5, or 6 winning this race. Also because of the potential for a slow to medium pace, you can forget the 3 and the 8 horse as they won't have the pace to create an opportunity to close.

This leaves me with the 1, 4, 7, 9. Which horses have run against the fastest pace? Despite drawing the numbers from 1 turn miles, both the 1 and the 4 have raced against the fastest 4 and 6 furlong pace in their respective 8 furlong races. So these two are my contenders.

My knock against the 7 horse is that although that last race at 9 furlongs was nice, the horse is being asked to run another 9 furlongs in 3 weeks time. Couple in the fact that this will only be the horse's 3rd race in its entire career, with no races run as a 2 year old, there is a chance for a bounce to happen.

As for the 9, it hasn't really run an exceptional looking race time-wise in comparison to the 1 or the 4. That Holy Bull Beyer number is for some reason a 105, yet its speed rating, which is calculated in comparison to the track record, is a modest 86. Scan through the non-Beyer speed ratings of both the 1 and the 4 and they look, on paper, to be faster horses.

Since I can't decide between the two, I will take both the :1: and the :4: to win.

Sunday's Race will be the 4th race at Parx, a 6f sprint.

I decided on this race because the two horses with the lowest odds, the 2 and the 1, are coming off of layoffs over 90 days. So, there might be the opportunity for a nice price.