3 year olds vs older
 

Recently I posted the following about a race in the matchers section.


The race is for three year olds and up.

The first part of the condition says “for three years olds and up that have never won two races”. (self explanatory)

The second part says “OR three year olds”. Notice there is no limit on the number of wins for three year olds.

Just 80 days ago, these three year olds were TWO year olds. Now, it is possible that one of these three year olds may have won two races in 2018, but under the conditions, it doesn’t matter. Why doesn’t it matter? Because their penalty is that they are running against older horses today.

Look at the three year olds. How many of them have run against older horses? Answer: NONE

After winning the triple crown, even the great Secretariat got beat the first time he ran against older horses! And that happened later in the year than we are now.

There are only three horses in the race that are four year olds or older. They are the #1, #5 and #7.

The winner? #5 at $16.00.


Then yesterday, Richie P posted race 1 from Lrl. It is another race where my above post applies.
Richie was absolutely correct about the winner being “FPLR”. For those who are satisfied stopping there, that’s fine, it will certainly get you headed in the right direction. However, there are other things that make the winner even easier.
You can see the field here. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11574

Here is the way I looked at the field.
Conditions: 3 year olds and up, $5,000 NW2L

#1 - 3 year old, 1 for 21 and never raced against older horses
#2 - 3 year old, never raced against older horses, big drop down
#3 - 3 year old, never raced against older horses
#4 - 4 year old that has met older horses several times, no form, 1 for 17
#5 - 4 year old that has run against older horses several times, like Richie said, FPLR and returning to the level at which it was claimed
#6 - 4 year old that has run against older horses several times, injury layoff (302 days) between race 7 and 8 sent the horse right to the bottom of the barrel.
#7 - 4 year old that has raced against older horses several times, 1 for 22, no form

All of the three year olds can be dismissed.
Of the 4 year olds, #4, #6 and #7 can be dismissed.
It really only leaves the #5.

I found it interesting that they made the #1 ( a 3 year old and 1 for 22) the favorite
Also, somebody bit for the #2 dropping down from 25,000 to 5,000 and claimed it, as it was eased beaten 40 lengths!

And the winner, #5, pays $14.40!!!

This is the time of year to find these type of races!

Thanks FTL

Thanks
 

Thank you FTL.

The conditions are a very important factor

Good Skill
Bill

Thanks for the reminder of something I knew but don't pay enough attention to. When you think about it, most horses aren't even really 3 years old until April or May.

What I have always heard is that with rare exception, 3 year olds are not ready to go against older horses until late summer to early autumn at the earliest. Any thoughts on that?

You are absolutely correct.

I’ll create outlandish situation just to make a point.

Let’s say a horse is born on December 31,2017. “TECHNICALLY”, the very next day, January 1,2018, that horse is 1 year old. That means that on January 1, 2019, that horse is a two year old. But is it 2 years old? NO! It is 1 year old.
What everyone has to keep in mind is, every horses’ birthday is January 1st every year. Knowing what month the horse was foaled in becomes a useful piece of information.

You are also absolutely correct that 3 year olds really don’t mature enough to race successfully against older horses until the fall of the year. This doesn’t mean 3 year olds never beat older horses prior to that. There are many contributing factors that can lead to a 3 year old beating older horses and the later in the year it gets the better their chances.

Just to carry this forward, a horse is not considered fully mature until approximately half way through its’ 4 year old year.

When talking about a horses’ age, you also have to take into consideration the track where the horse is running.
As an example, Mountaineer, to my knowledge, does not run any races for 3 year olds only. Why? Because they don’t have enough 3 year olds. When they start their meeting in March (usually), it starts right off with races for “3 year olds and up”. Mountaineer is a low level track with the large majority of horses racing there being older horses. Low level tracks is where older horses with infirmities go to race. This will be true for most all low level tracks, such as Charles Town, Delta Downs and others.
Ask yourself this question. When was the last time you saw a “Maiden Special Weight” race for 2 year olds or 3 year olds at these low level tracks?That will tell you how many young horses are available at those tracks.

Month born is a big thing I look at when betting the Ky Derby.
Over the years, a lot of low priced horses were a few months younger than others and have run like it.

A reminder
 

Each PP in RDSS shows the month of birth and year for every horse opposite the name,coloring and sex. In this case March 2013

Attachment 45952