M4$ Apr9 Challenge11 (PeteC)
 

Here you go Pete. Your second shot at building a ladder to climb out of the basement. After this weekend, no more new players.

Bon Chance
Pook

So Pete sees this on the main page.

Got it Pook. That better be some ladder too! If I'm gonna make any kind of power move it better be soon. As they say. The fat lady hasn't sung to me yet.....but she's warming up! Talk to you you Saturday.

Carter Handicap: AQU 7F
 

Wow, looks like dicey weather around the country tomorrow! For the challenge race, let's go to Aqueduct. The 11th race looks like a challenging race going 7F for the Carter Handicap. It's a field of 8 for this grade 1. Let's hope the field stays in tact....

I'm headed for the off-track today and will not be near a computer near post-time. I can't see anybody beating the morning line favorite (5). I'm going to pass the race.

GL

Tim

Carter
 

My look at the 11th from AQU
Grade 1, 7 furlongs Carter

Fulcrum horse
No Fulcrum No one has run at 7 furlongs or from the Aqu main track last line

Running styles
Horse 1 Sus line 1 116lbs
Horse 2 Presser Line 1 116lbs 54 days SAR works
Horse 3 Early Presser Line 1 118lbs
Horse 4 Early line 1 117lbs 54 days works ?
Horse 5 SP line 1 123Lbs SAR and + HWL1 works
Horse 6 EP Line 1 trouble dq line ? 114lbs works +
Horse 7 SP Line 1 117lbs works +
Horse 8 Press line 2 117lbs




Who has the top EPR
The 3 has the best EPR 99.5 but to heavy on EP-LP balance
Early Presser
Can It go wire to wire = No not with a 78 LPR

Rate the lines make your decisions

The 5 has a lot of things going for it .
The 6 has not won recently plus last line worries me
The 1 will be late and maybe good odds
lots of 5 furlong constant works


The top TPR horses
They are 6 5 1
Top 3 VDC = 6 5 1

My bets 1 and 5

Carter
 

projected pace 22.3 45.0

1 Sassicaia has closed well into this pace. Seems to have improved since the layoff.
2 Majestic Affair needs a slower pace.
3 Dads Caps has not shown much off a layoff-- needs a slower pace.
4 Green Gatto is a fast horse who should be on the lead. Has run well against expected pace.
5 Salutos Amigos is a solid horse who moves up on a wet track. Should like the pace scenario.
6 Anchor Down has not run well for some time. Pace is ok for him.
7 Calculator makes his first start in the east. Usually runs a good race and can handle the pace.
8 Stallwalkin' Dude has not well at this level for a while--should handle pace ok.

Contenders 1,4,5,7.

BL/BL 4,1,5,7.

Will go with 1,4 based on potential odds.

Aq 11
 

Pace: 22.4 - 45
OTE

Contenders: 1-3-7

1 - need 22 pace - will get contender
2 - distance specialist - not fast enough - out
3 - contender
4 - pace - out
5 - Distance limitation? - upgrade WET
6 - Duel with pace - out
7 - contender
8 - upgrade on WET surface

Win: 1 - 7

Forgive my quick post, I seem to have forgotten how to screen shot , but will before this contest is over.

Top Contenders 5 Salutos Amigos
6 Anchor Down ( Pletcher /Johnny V) tough to beat
2 Majestic Affair


I am going with the early speed today and a longshot , #4 Green Gratto

I feel the 4 will have the lead and maybe the 5 will catch him at the wire

my two picks are 4 and 5

Back up scratch play will be # 1 Sassicala


Patrick

The 3 should compromise the earlies with a very fast pace so I’m looking OTE. So I’m looking for a price.
Looking for the 6 and 8 to get the first run at the leaders.
My pick 6 and 8