Froggy/Value race tools/Rdss
 

Froggy,
I was reading your comments to Forego in the selection area this morning.If you want to focus more on finding potential value races ahead of time I have something for you to consider that will help you.

I need you to give up betting one evening and give 4 HOURS to this project. I will give you some tools available NOW with RDSS that will help you.

The first 2 hours will be spent on THREE races that have run already where a chalk paying less than 5 dollars has won. 2 HOURS on THREE races. These chalk winning races will be called "CHALK".

The next 2 hours will be spent on THREE races that have already run where a value horse has won the race. Use a $12.00 and up win price for these THREE races please. 2 HOURS on THREE races. These value winning races will be called "VALUE".

Let me lay out a few RDSS tools that I think can help xray a race and identify some potential PATTERNS for either value or a race where the chalk might well be the answer.

1) The Original screen on top half coupled with Energy tab on lower half.

Energy tab shows patterns of speed ratings (improving,declining, good race/bad race etc.) that can be paired up with % med numbers on same screen to see the horses "good races". Also will help show improving horses who it might be wise to choose a line deeper in pp's but one which reflects a natural progression expected TODAY. Also can be used to identify certain tracks who get inflated speed ratings on tracks labeled "gd" and "sly/my". They ARE there and considering another paceline in these cases might be a good idea.

Then you can use the Original tab on top to see if the horse only runs good races at a certain level. While most times this may not be of help there ARE without a doubt horses that will only perform well at certain levels. Conversely others who regardless of numbers will NOT perform well at certain levels. Also this screen shows layoff and layoff patterns looking at the days back for each race that will reveal things there to help in line selection for TODAY.

2) The TPR+EL tab. Sometimes this screen can show patterns of improve/decline(looking at the CPR totals) in a format easier for some minds to comprehend. Socantra is big on this screen. Likes it for it's ease of understanding a form cycle.

ok so now we have our THREE "chalk" races and 2 HOURS to look at them. What are we looking for? PATTERNS both on the winning chalk and the others in the race.

a) is the winning chalk the top speed rating in the field and has shown before in the pp's he can put back to back sharp races together?

b) is the winning chalk at a level where he has dominated before looking at the pp's?

c) is the winning chalk a front runner who has no real early threat today looking at the pp's?

d) are the losing horses in the race basically pigs? horses who do not WIN races( especially the ones closest ranked to the winning chalk)?

e) did I use a paceline for the losing horses that is NOT typical for the horse but more of a "one race" top that probably will not be repeated?

These are but a few of the things that can be looked at. With low paying winners there are patterns to there pp's that will show themselves. When you find one or 2 "keys" REMEMBER them.

Now when you are working a card BEFORE it runs and you come to a race that REMINDS you of these race types grab a piece of paper and make TWO columns.
1) CHALK
2) VALUE

Put THIS race under the column CHALK. Unless you need action a race to stay AWAY from and this is identified BEFORE the card runs.

Now you switch to the three VALUE races and look for patterns with them.
a) look at the fav. was he vulnerable? dropper? declining speed ratings? etc

b) look at the "contender mix". was it contentious? was there 3-5 horses ALL competitive and within 2-3 points of one another? THIS along with another pattern produces a LOT of VALUE races.

c) look at the VALUE race winner CLOSELY.
1) If a layoff horse did an "average" speed rating for him project him highly WITHOUT having to use his best number?
2) was he an improving horse rating wise? use the TPR and SR here to find pattern
3) was he an off the pace type in a race where there was quite a bit of early speed present? was he an up close type in a race where the majority were off the pace types?
4) was he just claimed by a sharp outfit where expected improvement is more than likely?

btw THAT EXACT scenario existed in Forego's winning Delaware race yesterday man. Check it out please. It is RIGHT THERE in the pp's.
5) was he returning to a level/track he cherishes and does very well on?

these and more can be looked at.

When you see or "feel" some of these patterns REMEMBER them. When you work a card BEFORE it runs and come across one of these races and RECOGNIZE the pattern of VALUE mark THIS race under the VALUE column on your pad. A race that with certainty you WILL be betting.

After you have worked a full card this way simply look at the columns. You will be AVOIDING the CHALK labeled races and betting with gusto the VALUE races.

If you check Forego's selections the past month posted well before any race ran you will see an amazing % of VALUE wins of his compared to low payers man. It's right there in black and white.

He is following this plan but is waiting to bet VALUE only in races where he has a perceived edge in that he knows the winning style needed for todays race.

Hope this helps and good hunting!
Richie

home work
 

Wow Rich
Lots of great points in your essay

Thank you for the information on the various screens
available in RDSS

I am so happy with RDSS/Val4 I used the APV_Cr, Primary screen and work
out screens to hit that Philly race 3 yesterday
Then it was off to BLBL and bingo

Anyway thank you for your work up
As they say in the follow up Lots of work is needed
before you turn on the past performace screen
and pick lines

GS
Bill

Bill
YOU are the best I have ever seen using that Apv/Class stuff. I don't know how the heck you do it but you DO!

Hey nice hit on the Pha and Del races yesterday!

Richie:)

Thanks Teacher.

Tonight I will do the home work as required.

Patience, discipline and grow the bankroll, HMMMM.

Froggy.

Charlestown tonight
 

here is the 5th race at 6.5f

First we have a few pure early runners. Let's look at them alone first.
The screenshot shows the 9 with a 1st fraction edge but that migth cost him to run too fast too early. There is big early and mid race pressure from the 3,4 and 7.

This scenario (assuming the right call is made on the 9 going too fast too early) points to the winner coming from the opposite style.

Here are the earlies

Earlies con't
 

Here is another look at the earlies.

If selecting lines off adjusted for the opposite style looks like 45.6 is the benchmark according to the race pressure from the earlies shown

screenshot of TPR screen and the earlies

Win Contenders/Energy
 

So we throw the WHOLE bunch of early guys out. Now select lines from the opposite style based around 45.6 if using adjusted.

Line 6 used for the 5 is the ONLY sprint showing in the pp's. so we use it and see.

Here is a screenshot of the opposite styles entered on TPR. The 8 and 6 are the 2 fastest and the 2 best to the 2nd call.

** Note on the 8** that last line HUGE rating might be considered suspect due to the "gd" track label. Only CT line so use it and make call at betting time.

Screenshot showing Win contenders

Win Contenders/Energy con't
 

Here is the bl/bl. want a huge price? LOOK at the 2 man.

certainly deserves a look and a must use for exacta/tri wagers.

ok hopefully the 3479 all race so we get to this nice scenario.

Screenshot of bl/bl

I had just downloaded the card when you loaded me up with this race.
Let me have a chance to look at it.

Froggy

Here is what I came up with using my old method.
Now I am going to dig in and try and see what you see.