Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   GP 1st - 1/10/18 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11427)

Jeebs 01-10-2018 10:11 AM

GP 1st - 1/10/18
 
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Race conditions and the "who's who?" in today's opener...

Post Time: 12:35-12:42 :D

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Jeebs 01-10-2018 10:27 AM

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A few unknowns in here. Here goes:

#1 - Line 3. Unknown as this one drops into the lower condition for the 1st time. Horse's TE appears on the weak side and may need this one to fall apart for any shot.

#2 - Line 3. Another unknown, as this one has a multitude of turf sprints coupled with sloppy dirt track sprints and a pedestrian route. It's 2nd best perceptor off a 5F turf sprint at GPW is all I have for rating, and gives it its best chance.

#3 - Line 1. Two tries in this condition were good. The last line gives it its best chance.

#4 - Line 1. N2L graduate ran a career best off a drop last out at the same price tag as today. While it may not run back to that race, it still looms heavily. ML favorite looks tough.

#5 - Non-contender. Briefly showed some foot in Line 1, but its initial try at this level showed nothing, plus poor connections. Not a player in today's matchup.

#6 - Line 1. Beaten twice at this condition, and the last line is its best of the last 3 at a similar distance/surface.

#7 - Line 4. Made a call here. Horse won last out at today's tag in N2L with a weak TE. Moves up to N3L. The W/W effort at Ellis in the 4th line down at similar surface/distance structure would give it more of a fighting chance in this race.

#8 - Line 3. Another unknown dropping down this low for the first time. At least the positive in its last race (115 days ago) was that it showed something after its layoff. I was fine with using its best perceptor.

Jeebs 01-10-2018 10:49 AM

Takeaways
 
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It appears that there are at least 3-4 horses that are going to want the early lead. My early look is that #7 could take the worst of it and won't be able to go on, especially since it will have to carry a weakish TE into this group. #6 looks to have trouble getting to the front, and as a NTL type, doesn't typically stay.

The top 3 tiers on both BL/BL and Rx place the ML favorites in the catbird's seat, with #4 looking very tough off that last effort. #3 looks to sit back and pick off dying speeds. Maybe... just maybe #2 takes to a fast dirt track, and either gets a piece or pulls off a shocker at a price.

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Mitch44 01-10-2018 10:54 AM

On the fly as I have a Dr apt;
1,7-4
Mitch44

Lt1 01-10-2018 12:31 PM

Just saw this so quick look contenders 43681. 4 too short for a bet so will take $wp 3&6 and $1ex box 13468 fr a $28 dollar investment.
Tim

Jeebs 01-10-2018 01:15 PM

Got lucky
 
In the wake of bringing my child to his childcare provider, I couldn't get a bet in. Saved money, as the two horses that I thought would either have trouble getting the lead (#6 pressed the bomber #5, while #7 came from off the pace) closed for the exacta slots. Looks like #3 getting squeezed at the break changed some of the race's complexion.

Lt1 01-10-2018 02:47 PM

Well I got the 6 home at $9.20 and $5.20 but blew the ex. when the 4 died.
Tim


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