Churchill Grade 1- Friday 11/25 - TM 113 Race Class
 

Here is Friday's 11th race from Churchill - The Grade 1 Clark Handicap for 500,000 bucks going 9f on the dirt.

Good horses, good money, good food from "Gobble-Gobble" day all point to a fun matching race here. Best of luck/skill to everyone who chimes in :)

Using Rdss1 so you can see tandem finishes on middle tab

Proj pace?
FPLR?
Early and OTE groupings?
Tandem throwouts?


**Hat Helper** - CD 8f dirt - Belmont 8f dirt - Belmont 8.5f dirt - Belmont 9f dirt are ALL run around ONE turn **

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RichieP:
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Hi Ritchie,

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones,

I'm not sure if you are showing the PP for Saturdays race.
Looks like You posted the PP's for Fridays race to me.
The Clark runs tomorrow, Friday.

Hi Bill

You are right man the race runs tomorrow!! Oops and sorry for the goof, let me see if I can get the heading changed to the right day :o

Have a great Thanksgiving Bill, wishing you the very best today and every day :)

Ritch,

You picked a great race.
I'll lead of with (11, 1)
If I had to split them, I would favor
the (11) Wise Dan.

Fri. CD
 

Race 11.

10- Will's Wildcat
6. Flat Out
11. Wise Dan


Bob

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone…

I have been following this board for three years now, but I registered just recently. I just want to say that the spirit of Doc Sartin and his methodology lives on with this board and with everyone who uses one of his programs or the breakthrough concepts he conceptualized.

In this match up, most of the entrants are coming off slow fractions, mile and ¼ races, and or marathons of 12 furlongs or longer.. With only one lone speed (Hey, where did I hear that before? :_)in this match-up, the race will center on the pace fractions of the sprinter stretching out. Most incidents like this match up, the expected pace will be pedestrian that by the time, most of the entrants put on their running shoes, the field up front will have a huge advantage up front by the top of the stretch…..

#2 Alma, #3 Demarc, #4 Stately, #7 Pleasant,#9 Mister are coming off slow fractions races and will be at a disadvantage in this match up.. I don’t see any great sustain fractions from these entrants. #5 Mission and #13 General are coming off dismal effort or tandem races where their current ability or form are in question. #8 Headache is interesting as he appears to have come off a non-effort race…So he is the only one off this group that I will leave in for the match up analysis.

#12 Prayer seems to have come off the fastest pace of 45.4 for 4 furlong from his last paceline but that second fraction where he got a breather of 26.2 on the turn will make him vulnerable in this match up…Grade 1 races always has some entrant that will set a fast pace, burn the turn on the second fraction or some entrant will have an impressive last sustain fraction. They don’t give away Grade 1 races for mediocre entrants….

This leaves #1 Ruler on Ice, #6 Flat Out, #8 Headache, the lone speed #10 Will’s Wildcat, and#11 Wise Dan

#1 Ruler, we can use his 2nd paceline back to match him up in this group..
#6 Flat Out-this one is tricky as he wasn’t up close to a fast pace race nor does he come off a great sustain fraction race from his mile and ¼ race..but anyways, we must have a paceline to evaluate him, I will chose the 3rd and 5th line back..Yes, I can hear the hecklings and the arms raised up from the front of the class, but mile and ¼ races are not great races to compare visually or with old Sartin programs.
#8 Headache, same situation as Flat Out, 5th paceline back, his last race was a non-effort, so in reality I am going back to the 4th line back .

For those doubters, I will bring up the last two Breeder’s Cup Classic races to come up with a current pacelines for Zenyatta or Drosselmeyer or even Da Hoss in his second Mile Turf victory that accurately determine their true abilities… Grade 1 horses are a different breed if they have the abilities.

# 11 Wise Dan – the last paceline is sufficient to evaluate, even though, the 2nd paceline from a turf race has an impressive sustain fraction won by Gio Ponti.

#10 Will’s Wildcat will be tricky, but he does have prior route races to compare his routing ability..One good race which happens to be at the same CD racetrack even though it was a maiden race.. It is better than guessing or using some distance projection voodoo.

Bottom line…It appears that Headache, Wise Dan come off the best sustain races so it is question if they will be close enough to catch #10 Will’s Wildcat. I can take the safer route and play Headache to place in this match up as #10 Will’s route ability is in question. Good Luck to all..

Good morning…

Projected Pace: #10 looks like the early speed here. Since it comes out of sprints, I went back to the 9F Saratoga line (5) and used the 47.7 111.4 for today’s pace.

Early and OTE: I labeled 10 as early and the 12 as E/P (primarily because of how it always seems to break 1st. All the others are pure OTE to me. After looking at Line 5 for #10 I decided this race will run OTE.

Match-Up:

My final OTE contenders were the 6,7,11 and 12 but I ended up picking the 11. Although they’re at different surfaces and distances, I see 4 wins against similar to today’s pace or better, including once in the Churchill slop.

Cd #11
 

I see an honest but not overly fast pace here with the 10 early; 5 and 11 E/P; and 2, 12, and 13 as P types.

I think the pace will go something like the 10 horse's race 5 back at Saratoga which is 47.7 1:11.4.

The 5, 11, and 13 came out of a tandem at KEE which the 11 dominated. The pace in that race went 47.2 1:11.4 which the 11 had shown in other races.

I see the contenders here as the 1, 6, and 11. I'll put the 10 in there for pace purposes.

1: This horse won at 12F in a slow pace. Against faster paces, not as good. Out.
6: Sits 4th or 5th but against slower paces. Out.
10: Failed against 47.7 1:11.4. at SAR. Out.
11: Has handled the pace he will see today more than once.

The 11 is my choice.

Tim