The Belmont
 

Will Justify win the Triple Crown?
I’m not seeing it at all. If the Preakness was 10 yards longer he would have been defeated. That many horses that close at the finish does not indicate any super horse to me.

I believe it comes down to three things: 1. The competition is catching up with him as the year goes on, 3 yr. olds can progress rapidly from one race to another and it doesn’t take months. 2. The foot problem began hurting him as the distance of the race got longer. 3. The schedule is catching up with him, he may have broken the Apollo Curse but the Apollo Curse doesn’t bode well for a Triple Crown winner, we only hear about it for the Derby but what about the Triple Crown? What we’re seeing could be anyone of those 3 things or all 3 of them.

I did a study of BC winner’s particularity 3 and up horses and spacing of their races coming up to their BC race and most came into the race fresh and ready for a peak effort. Horses with 4 races within 70 days did very poorly.

The Belmont will be Justified 4th race in 70 days going into it. He’ll be meeting fresh horse ready to ambush him, has to prove a new distance also. NY isn’t going to allow him anything easy during the running either. He has to train good to get the new longer distance and can’t afford any setbacks. I believe the schedule catches up with him in the Belmont and that’s where the Apollo Curse is really going to catch up with him. Hey if he wins it I’ll give him his just dues, but I’m not seeing it.

Pletcher has many horses and he’ll be challenged early and perhaps by more than one. Without knowing the entries I like Audible to win right now. And if you think the payoff was paltry for the Preakness, they’ll hammer Justify even lower for the Belmont. That Lucas horse has finally put it together, anyway we’ll have to see who actually gets in. Regardless I think Baffert runs the horse, he can’t resist another Triple Crown.

I believe he’ll fail for the Triple Crown bid and there should be some juicy overlays. Looking forward to it. While a TC winner would be good for the sport, for me the game is about making money and exploiting opportunities.


Mitch44

Hope
 

Hi Mitch

I think I agree JUSTIFY MIGHT be something but he just looked off yesterday.
It looks like it is catching up with him. Good news for us. We get the excitement of a possible TC, but more likely we get everybody else in the race as a overlay

Your correct Bill and I agree.


I'm loving this setup, there has never been an Apollo Curse horse that wins two legs of the TC and no one has thought of the possibilities that an Apollo Curse can win the TC. Hell its hard enough as it is and I'm betting that is where the Curse will really catch up with him in the Belmont.


Those fresh horses will be his undoing. I'm hoping the track is fast for a change also.


The public also has the problem that Speed figures and pace figures for both the Derby and Preakness are pure guesswork based on the track conditions and more than likely totally inaccurate. They'll have no choice but to buy into the hype even more.


Mitch44

Belmont - Vino Rosso
 

I love Justify; however, I think he will be caught in New York.

Audible is out, and I think Vino Rosso will have a BIG shot if he runs.

This is going to be fun!

Happy Punting,
Jon

Audible has the same ownership as Justify, I guess they don't want another from their own stable ruining his TC victory.


We'll have to see how this field shakes out. I still think he is vulnerable.


Mitch44

My final picks are: 4-8-1


The 1 will be bet down and to me he's up against it today and more so than the other two TC races, refuse to take that odds with ???

The 6 has to prove dirt & distance. Has won 4 of 6 so does have ability, odds should be huge but they'll bet his new trainer Chad Brown.

The show slot in this for a Tri. is a pure guessing game, either avoid it and work some DD or P3 for you're money,take a shot with one or two of the longest odds in the field or throw a real dart for show. Not at you're CP screen!!!

Good luck with all your plays today.



Mitch44

I believe the 1 may just be regressing enough to fail today. I based this on noting that since his mdn win the margin of his following wins has continued to decrease. On the flip side he is the class of the field so it wouldn't be a surprise if he does win. The odds won't be there so right now I'm looking at betting the 8,3,4 7 depending on odds. I will include the 1 if I bet multi races bets.
Tim

Horses
 

Greetings Friends

For the Belmont I will put Justify in the place spot

8, 3,7.10/1

Good skill and lets take the money if justify can't do it.

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Trickier than last year!
 

I'm going to oppose Justify here. I'm not entirely sure that this distance is going to suit.

I'm going 3, 5, 7, 10.
I've managed to dutch them all on betfair for a solid profit if any of them win.

Good skill to one and all!

3-7 for me