(Hold or Fold?) PRX Apr25 6th
 

Heres a tough race for older horses full of speed at Parx today. I hope that the speed doesn't scratch out or that the track goes off.

Hold or fold?

Pook

the rest...

No scratches trk good and sealed.
Tim G

Okay no scratches. Hopefully the track stays good or goes fast.

I see a fold of 1,2,3,4. All need open lengths by the half and may not get it. The 6 I don't think is necessarily E in sprints and can win OTE.

So 5,6,7 OTE. 5's current form is suspect.

6,7 with odds.

Pook

Prx 6
 

I very rarely play races with less than 8 betting entries, but will join in anyway.
My top two are the 3 & 7.

rmath

My order is 3-6-2-7-4
Have to leave asap so no time for lines etc.
Mitch44

I say "Fold"...
 

Pacelines/Run Styles:

#1 - Line 4/Early. 2nd best PoR and Percept.
#2 - Line 4/Early. 3rd best PoR, 4th best Percept.
#3 - Line 8/Early-Early Fighter. Hasn't had to face a pressured PoR recently, hence the old line. 2nd best PoR and Percept. Can pass horses, doesn't need to bust out of the box.
#4 - Line 3/Early. Took 4th best PoR as it hasn't faced such pressure last two outs. 4th best Percept too.
#5 - Line 2/Sustained Presser. 2nd best PoR, top Percept. Line is at today's distance too, which is a plus. Looks like it will have some TT power, which could be crucial on this "off" surface.
#6 - Line 2 (Extracted)/Early Presser. 3rd best Percept, but is weak vs. 170+ TE PoR's. Drops further down today and could be suspect in this type of a field.
#7 - Line 3/Sustained Presser. 2nd best PoR and Percept total. Shows excellent form OTE.

Basically a "3 matching Earlies" situation here between 2-1-3 in that order at F1. 1-2-3-4 are "E" runners based on the Energy ESP, which leaves #5 (EP), #7 (P), and #6 (SP) to counter the E energy types. #5 can pass horses, has had success on "off" surfaces and most importantly, is a "new" face in here. #7 can run in the middle of the pack and even though the E/L graph trends on the Early side, this one often runs its race and isn't affected much by the developed pace. #6 is visually an EP style runner, but unlike #7, tends to get bothered by how a pace develops.

Betting two horses here without regards to Bottom Line (since this is more of a "Match Up" exercise), I would bet #5 and #7, and hope that we get a nice price on #5 to make it worthwhile.

On visual form, #5 is suspect, but remember that he is a "new face" in this field. The change in scenery, the projected pace scenario, the fact that 2 of its 4 wins were earned on "off" tracks, and 3rd race off the freshening could very well be enough to put him in the winner's circle. If this horse is anywhere near 8-1 odds or greater, the risk is worth it, IMO.

I'll go with 7-4-3-6.

Track now mdy.