Belmont Marathon, 7/9, 12 furlongs turf
 

The 1-2-3-7 have not been closer than 4th a long way back at the mile call and are out; the 6 lost to the 8 2x and is out; the 6 beat the 8 in a snail race that I cannot back.

that leaves 4-5-8-9 and no one wants the lead. I think most likely the 8 takes it based on being closer up, but it could be the 9. No one in this group has a late component greater than 98.2 in the races that I used, as opposed to several yesterday with 3 digit LPs.

In three races that I looked at for the 4 the horse ran 8-7-1, 5-5-1, and 3-2-1, always leading at the stretch call. the mile times were 137.5, 134.3 and 137.2.

the 5 has three races where the mile split is 135.1 and has run 4-5-2, 8-6-3, and 4-5-4 and while not on the lead was never far off (+1.5 max)

The 5 and 4 duke it out for the win; the 8 and 9 battle for the rest.

My top 3 are the 5-4-8.

Good luck in this one.

results
 

9-5-7-8

Bill, needed to be on or near the lead today on the Turf.

Obviously I picked the wrong leader. I thought the 8 off of internal splits of 114.6, 110.6, 113.6 and 113.8 while running 4th, 5th 6th and 3rd at the mile would be default leader from the 9 who had 3 races with 115.6, 115.7 and 115 internals. The 9's last three mile call positions were 5-3 and 1.

Field size and position for the 8 was 4th out of 5, 5th out of 6, 6th out of 12 and 2nd out of 8; for the 9 was 5th out of 8, 3rd out of 6 and 1st out of 11.

I could still argue for each of them, but I thought the slower paces experienced by the 9 was the deciding factor.

I would have had to go 4 deep to get the $40 exacta, still profitable, but not for me yesterday.

Bill, it was definitely tough to pick the leader!
Not sure if you had the PP but he went to the lead in a Gr 2 (Ger) and Grade 3 (Fr).
Regards, Mike