Speculator Modeling Workbook
 

Here is an Excel spreadsheet, courtesy of Richie Pizzicara, for keeping track of various factors used in Speculator.

Speculator Modeling Workbook

It uses different tabs for different distances and surfaces, and it separates out Stakes Sprint and Stakes Route distances into separate tabs.

Enter the factor ranks from winners' pacelines onto the appropriate tab, by distance and surface.

Make one of these for each track you work; name it for example: AQI-model.xls, SA_model.xls, or whatever.

The E/L Rank column (E) is an innovation which seeks to rank the Early or Late magnitude of the E/L Difference. Here's how Richie says he makes ranks, and it differs for Sprints versus Routes:

For Sprints: the most Early is ranked 1, the next most Early is ranked 2, etc

For Routes and Turf: the most Late is ranked 1, the next most Late is ranked 2, etc.

Others may have a different approach to E/L ranking, but tinker with it and see what works.

Ted

MAJOR problem with a model is that it AVERAGES out short term changes that can be very significant

Good point. In order to avoid this, consider all modelling as a short term activity, perhaps 1 week, but also look at what seems to be happening over a couple of days recently. Sometimes the first few races of a day can confirm or deny that what was applicable yesterday is or is not effective today. I don't see a sum or average line in this model sheet - better to just look item by item, look for actual facts, trends.

Some factors can persist, say most Early at AQU winter sprints, or not near 0 at SA sprints, but some appear and disappear within days.

Paying attention and writing it down is, I think, the operative issue.


Ted

There is NO averaging of any kind on what I have created. With averaging you wind up reverting to a mean.

Mine is specifically designed to let users see SHORT term trends right away while limiting corrolaries being tracked.

Rich

Well we have seen my Evd 6f and 8.3f short term decision models.

here is 8f. take a peek at cpr. There are some BIG priced winners in this mix too. If this trend continues and I can not make money i should go to the pier here and take a flying wallenda off it man.

Caveat - NONE of the pacelines chosen at any distance are ONE race wonders either from an e/l perspective ( f4 tab on paceline screen) or per-1 ( f3 tab on paceline screen).

NO averaging or long term stuff. Just BAM in your face reality data.

Is ANYBODY betting this track??????


Richie

How do i save the Speculator Modeling workbook to my computer. I am going to start looking at Evd. It is one of the few tracks that run at night this time of the year. Stan

Stan,

Click on the link in the top message, and that will begin a download. Save the file (SpeculatorModelingWorkbook.xls) to your computer, for example, to your Speculator folder, whatever that is named. Then, go to that folder in Windows Explorer, find the file and double-click on it to open it in Excel. (Of course, this presumes you have Microsoft Excel on your computer).

Ted

Stan,

Re EVD, I set up this topic under the Beginner/Basics section to work EVD 3/15 as an educational exercise, using Spec. Join in, if you're able!

http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=824


Ted

Stan,
let me know if you get it set up ok? Evangeline has been running the Delta Downs meet at their track due to Delta's problems after Katrina.

The good thing is they start THEIR yearly meet on 4/1 and run right thru til September so a 5 month consistent meet is just about upon us. Yea there is some Cajun chicanery :eek: that goes on there BUT they have full fields and pretty good prices. The favorites do not dominate there Stan.

Full fields
Cheap horses
a track that is AWAY from the limelight ( sharpies).

Nice recipe for potential profits i would say.

BTW I got a heads up about this track from Dick ( Socantra) a couple of months ago. Dick is dialed in to this **** here and hopefully he can shed some light on the joint!

Oh Dick? lol

Rich

I agree with you Richie. I think Evd could show some potential. Ted, i would be happy to join your group on Wednesday to play Evd. It should be interesting and helpful. Thanks to both of you for your help.
Stan