Betting Practice Case Example - Pktruckdriver
 

Patrick,

You said I could show your updated result sheet with some interesting facts about your betting, so here are some observations:

Original Sheet - as played (25% Win and Place on 2 horses - always)

Attachment 28160

No Place Bets (alternative)

Attachment 28161

Analysis

You picked a fair number of races where lower priced favourites won (Woodbine), though you did catch a few nice prices. The new Summary section (original) sheet shows you you chose horses where the Place bets often made as much or more than the Win bets. You caught 3 Place bets on the horse which finished second, and in all cases, the Place mutuel was higher than the Win mutuel.

As a result, as originally bet, you made 6% ROI on your Win bets and 7% on your Place bets - effectively the same amount. That is why when you look at the alternate betting sheet - where you forgo all Place bets and split your bet 50% 50% over 2 horses - the return and ROI is effectively the same - 6%. With the horses you picked in these particular 18 races, there was no penalty to betting Place = no advantage to foregoing Place betting.

With Win betting only, 2 horses, your hit rate was 50% (longest losing streak=3), with Place betting (as actually bet, with those 3 extra Place bet hits, each greater then the Win mutuel) - 67% hit rate (longest losing streak 2).

Not too shabby! If you must bet or make picks in advance, either steer away from races where the Morning Line favourite looks to be one of your Top 2 picks. OR - do nothing,and wait for the inevitable longer- and mid- priced horses which pop up for you from time to time.

If you take your individual spreadsheet (just download it from the Monday weekly update post by Bill) - you will see that if you put ANY more money in the Win pool on your #1 horse (i.e. more than 50%) - your Bankroll starts to rise. Your #1 Win pick has been very powerful this month.

I wanted to show the various stats about individuals' betting practices, and to show how the results would change given alternate betting practices. It behooves us to study this and discover for ourselves (as opposed to any other person telling us what we should or shouldn't be doing) - how we could improve total bankroll, what the impact on consistency would be, what the losing streaks would be, which Pool was the source of our profit, which Pool a drag on profits.

If you know what reality is, you can do something to change it.

Ted

Hello Ted,

Great analysis...every bit of it!

Your commentary gave me an idea.
Since the "basic" betting method of the methodology is wagering on two horses per race, with 60% of the bet on the low odds horse and 40% of the bet on the high odds horse, perhaps you could comment on what odds could, would or should be acceptable on each horse.
As an example:
take no odds on the low odds horse that is less than 5/2
take no odds on the high odds horse that is less than 4/1

The reason I started with those odds is, should either horse win, your return would be "doubling" your bet. i.e.- $60 to win on a 5/2 would return $210 and $40 on a 4/1 would return $200.
In the event that your "hit rate" in a 20 race cycle is only .500, you would still realize a small profit on those exact odds.
The higher your hit rate, the more profit you would realize.
Naturally, the higher the odds the higher the profit, even where your hit rate does not exceed .500.

Perhaps setting acceptable odds would help in the choice of whether or not to pass a race.

What are your thoughts?

Hello FTL
 

Your idea is sound but your reference to betting 60/40 is a little dated
The 60/40 split of bets or even 70/30 percentages became passe as the methodology moved away from the 65 to 70 win percentage goals.
As more and more of Doc's formula's made there way into the main stream. The methodology moved into the wager capping guidelines of splitting bets
50/50 and the focus became solely on ROI Doc's later guidelines were to use a 50 /50 bet on horses above 5/2 and only revert back to the 60/40 split if the client found it too hard to avoid betting on horses in the $5.60 to $6.80 range . or for those like Patrick who are at the mercy of the tote board as they can not wagercap. They are off site and often their bets fall below $7.00

thanks

Bill

Hi Bill,

You are absolutely correct when you say betting 60/40 is a little dated. In fact, I would even go further than that and say it is A LOT dated, right back to the root of the methodology. I also date myself A LOT when I use the root goal of achieving a 60% TO 70% winners, but this is the way to learn how to win.

I’m sure everyone knows how Doc got started, by being charged with taking a group of chronic losers and turning them into winners. THIS is the strategy he used to do the job.

In the same way a tree needs a strong root to withstand high winds, rain, sleet, ice and snow, so too do handicappers need a strong root. This is their root. Once a handicapper has this strong foundation, they can move on to other possible options. The methodology didn’t start in the middle. It started at the beginning.

I believe that one needs strong fundamentals and the root of the methodology provide exactly that.

Wow, Ted

Great job you did here, and it seems that my choice's, while it seems many did end up being, Post time Fav's, and paid little, my back up choices, paid well enough to keep me profitable, barely.

I make my bets, before , not at post time, and choose what is avaiable, as I did with the entire Woodbine Card 1 day, yes I did pass a race or 2, but basically played the entire card. I have only 20 downloads a month right now, so if I download, then I wish to play the card , even in the contest, as my Handicapping does not change, thou I do know some tracks better than others, I let the program do the heavy lifting. My paceline selection for me is near perfect, having done it so much now, that if I am in doubt I can always look at 2-3 lines and then decide which is best, but honestly, the automatic selector works extremely well too and rarely do I have to change a line, Good job Ted!

I played who I thought might win, and who was the best looking price horse, or a horse that for me shows up being #1 in a say LPR or EPR, etc... and thru my recent plays I know what has won before and find a pricey horse this way.

I do think that it would be an honor to be able to pull off a +60% win bet only on a 20 race cycle, betting 2 horse's that is, something I think is very doable, but to do it and be profitable too is another thing, as I can find low priced winners, and being much more selective with only 20 cards a month , should be easy enough, so this is an area I too may work on in the months to come.

Thanks so much everyone, this is very helpful


Patrick

I thought this was not discussed enough, as it happened that my 25 w/p wagering for this month basically made more money than a straight 50 win bet on 2 horses, at least this month.


That tells me that I am not really hitting on the win side too much and when I do it pays very little.

How bout a month of 50 Place bets on 2 horses, say the 2-4th choices, or the best value plays , and not necessarily the M/L fav, but the 2nd/3rd or higher m/l horse.

It does seem some of my Place wins paid very indeed, and possibly having the chance a 2 wins per race is always a nice thing to have, just a thought here.

I think Doc really wanted us to Win Bet, the best two value plays of our top 3 choices, and if in third or fourth tier, then maybe a place bet with odds very high, that is.

Ted what would have happened if the following month was a 50 place on the same 2 horse's, I think it would be even more profitable than I was, which is no where near as much as Bill, I kinda break even.

Thanks Patrick

Patrick Place all
 

Hello Patrick

I figured I would help you out with your question
while Ted is away

I made a new copy of your bets and did as you said I changed all your $25win/place bets to $50 place only on your 2 horses

The results are almost a mirror Image
Your score is just a few dollars less as Patrick2
PKTruckdriver is your actual score

Attachment 28527

Now lets see what happens if you just bet $50 win on your same two horses

Attachment 28528

Thanks Bill

That was a quick reponse, very nice job, I woulda thought it was higher because my 2nd wager seemed to have a very high place hit, as compared to a win hit in the top screen Ted did, my first wager did have many more inw hits, than say my 2nd wager did, but I seem to make up for it with the nice prices for the place payoff.

Again thanks

patrick

Patrick
 

I added your bets as 50/50 win only to the above post

If you want I can show you how you would have done betting 60/40
as long as you agree that the first horse you posted would be the low odds horse and the 2nd bet is the high odds horse

Yes Bill, please do

But I wanted to know how I would have done if I wagered 50 to place, instead of win, can this be done, please.

I think the 50 place wager would have done me a whole lot better, especially on my 2 horse, at least from what Ted has posted above.

Thanks

Patrick