Follow Up 2nd Call Beaten Lengths
 

Since I had a lot of free time I decided to give this factor 1 more look. Previously I had reported finding 400 horses being too far behind at the 2c[I established bl by taking the the 2c bl listed in the Bris pps and adding 2 more to the total]. A total of only 44[11%] were able to win despite the broader parameters. This time I found another 200 horses outside the parameters and here are the results. The tracks used were Parx,Tdn, MVR,Lrl,OP.
Horses Winners Placed Showed Out of Money
200 22 18 16 144
Once again the win % was 11%. So after 600 races, over a good cross section of tracks, the 11 % win has remained constant leading me to conclude that it is still safe to toss these horses from win consideration. Keep in mind that others may get different results based on contenders, pacelines, & tracks played.
Tim

Is your guideline to toss these from win consideration pretty much absolute?

Tim,
How many lenghts do you consider to be to far behind? Thanks for sharing.

Phil

Pretty much Ranch. I do fudge when I have a 00 horse and all other contenders outside of the limit especially if the DPH horse is flawed.
Tim

Hi Phil. It depends on track and dist. For example today I'm playing Delta Downs and according to the Bris pps at 5f the winner has been within 1 length at the 2c. so I add 2 to make it a max of 3. At 8f Bris has it at 2 so I make that 4 etc. Anyway if you don't have Bris pps you would have to use the results charts for a few days to establish the number or for the more stout hearted you might use 3 for sprints and 4 to 4.5 for routes
Tim

Hi Lt1,
Do you analyze/consider the Matchup when looking at this figure? I think that in races with low to normal pace pressure up front, the horses further back at the 2nd call suffer from not having enough tiring horses in front of them to pass (if that makes sense).

wouldn't it be MORE dependent on the TIME at the 2nd call versus beaten lenghts?... 2 lengths behind a 45.2 is far different than 2 lengths behind a 47.0

Hi guys. These figures are taken from the matchup of the viable contenders By adding 2 lengths to the bris figures I believe it compensates for a bevy of ills. All I know it works for me but hey if someone has a better mousetrap I'm all ears.
Tim