Matchup Challenge Mar 21/22 by PeteC
 

Here you go. Our original poster and matchup practice mentor....PeteC!

Saturday 3/21/15: Santa Anita 4th Race
 

Scanning the early PP's for Saturday I thought this is a wide-open interesting race. It's a stakes race for 3-year-olds on the turf. Most have turf experience but there are a few stretching out which spices up the challenge.

I'll post the "final PP's" which will be up tomorrow afternoon....

Saturday: Updated PP's
 

Here are the program PP's for Saturday's race...

Sunday 03/22/15: Sunland 7th
 

Let's give this stakes sprint at Sunland a try for Sunday...Here are the early PP's...

ooops, here they are....

???
 

Saturday SA 4th

I don't know what to do with this race. This is one that I would pass. The early horses are sprinters stretching out for the first time. Do you adjust these guys somehow? No router is an early. I think I read that Jim would compare sprinters to sprinters and routers to routers and go from there but even then I'm a little lost. Maybe somebody could show us(me) how it is done. So I will pass this one and look to see what you others come up with.

Good luck
Pook

This isn't the easiest of races, since you have to contend with those Santa Anita downhill turf lines, but here goes.

On paper, not a lot of early speed. The 3 and the 9 are the most likely to battle for the front. Since the 3 has run a faster fraction on the downhill course than the 9, the 9 is out.

Despite there not being a lot of early pace that can compromise the 3, I don't think the 9 will wire for one large reason: I don't think it can win at the distance. Firstly, looking at its past performances the 3 Jazzy Josh encounters problems when it is asked to run over 6 furlongs. This may be due to the second reason, its pedigree. Brisnet's Average Winning Distance or AWD numbers for the pedigree of the horse are 6.0 and 6.2 respectively, which means that the horse is probably most comfortable in the 5.5-6.5 furlong range.

The 3 does have some positives, such as that the horse is now in the hands or Richard Baltas and is losing its blinkers, presumably for the purpose of getting the horse to relax and slow down a little, but I don't think its enough to get it to run 8 furlongs successfully in this group of horses.

The race will run OTE, and the horse that has done best against the quickest pace is the 1 horse. It has succeeded against a faster 6.5f turf pace than either the 3 or 9 can ever throw in its way and it did gain lengths in the 7f San Vincente stakes two races back. Another bonus: it is 2 for 2 on the grass.

I bet the :1: to win.

Pook, or anyone else, if you need a point of comparison between the downhill turf course and a mile race on the grass, here are class pars at the 10k claiming level for each:

SA 6.5

22.03, 44.31, 1:13.44

SA 8 furlongs

47.22, 1:11.12, 1:35.25


They are from commercially available class pars, not hand rolled. Wish I had the time to make my own pars, but sadly, I don't.

SF, with the above info and the pacesetter #3 running 44.4 that would equate to about 47.4 in a route. The #2 and especially the #7 have been successful at a faster pace than that. That would make #2 and #7 pop up as interesting routers. The #1 though did win against a 45.2 equivalent so you may be right on.

Pook

Thanks for posting this Pete.

The 3 and the 9 are early sprinters in a route. Neither shows a pattern of closing up in sprints. I think they'll be way out in front. The race should go OTE (as many turf races do).

The 5 and 6 look too slow.

This leaves me with the 1,2,4,7, and 8.

There are a couple of tandem races here. The Eddie Logan stakes was very fast. The 2 and the 7 come out of that race. The other tandem is the last race for the 2 and 4.

1: This guy has had trouble at the start in 3 of 6 races. What's more, he doesn't close up in any of the sprints through the stretch call. OUT.
2: Ran well in both tandems. Contender.
4: Won the tandem against the 2. Contender.
7: Ran well in tandem. Will be behind 2. OUT.
8: Slow. OUT.

Conclusion:

This leaves me with the 2 and 4. This is a tough call. The 4 may get wrapped up in the pace.

The 2 is my choice.

GL

Tim