Saturday 3/16 - GG
 

And here's one more from Golden Gate...

Running Styles
1: Sus
2: P/S but can take the lead if the pace is slow enough (49.2 last race)
3: P/S
4: E/P handled 48.1 113.0 last time
5: Pre in sprints
6: Pre
7: P/S in sprints

Match-Up
The 4 looks like it can control the early pace. It lost to the 3 two-back but had been fighting up until the stretch call at least. The 3 is usually close but has only punched it in to win once. The 5 looks to be fast off the stretch out. The 111.1 6 furlong time dominates any of the routers 6f times here.

I’ll take the 5 over the 4.

Thanks Pete for putting these races on the board....great to see posts in these sections...


This race has some contenders that are coming from the same tandem....


What will change from that tandem.....

It seems that the #4 will set a faster pace fractions than that tandem race...so all early runners will be at a disadvantage in today' s matchup...so the #1 from that tandem will benefit the most in today's matchup..

#4 seems faster in his Sprint races from same track and pace fractions, so with the benefit of route races, he should fare better than sprinters stretching out for the first time...This one dominates the early fraction and dominates late....so this #4 will be my pick in this race...

It looks like the #1 and the late running sprinter #7 will be picking up the pieces after the early runners get tired from chasing the pace of #4...

Good skills...

The 5 edges the 4 in the stretch and pays a nice $10.40.... Thanks LS, hey we've got this board going the last few weeks. Maybe someone can pass on word to Richie that his work continues to pay off!

Great call...Pete!!!!
 

Great match up concentration...Pete....You nailed this race one-two...!!!

Richie would be proud...

Thanks for getting this section to perk up....(we can all learn!!!....)

Pete, when you get a chance...can you review in detail/steps how you were able to distinguish clearly that the #5 would outpace the #4....

1) did you used raw fractions only in matching...??

I mismatched the race because I thought the synthetics at Golden Gate were really slow....

Thanks on today's matchups..

Hi and thanks LS-

Yes, I only use the raw times. After I narrowed the race to the 4 and the 5, it was a close call separating them. When I look at sprinters going into a route for the first time I focus on two things:

1) Does the sprinter close / improve position during the sprint. That is what we want. We don’t want to see 2-2-3-4 or 1-1-2-3 for positions and beaten lengths.

2) I compare the six furlong sprint time to the six furlongs route pace of the routers in today’s race.

These guidelines are from the spot play section of the Match-Up 2 book (p.139). FWIW I find GG to be a pretty consistent surface. There are times when it rains or maybe it is really windy up there (I’m guessing) and the track slows down but you can usually find lines somewhere in the PP’s from GG that match today’s projected pace. The Tapeta surface they have there seems pretty good to me for matching purposes.

In this race I saw that 111.1 final time and up-close position for the 5 and it kind of popped out at me. I immediately saw it was much quicker than the recent 6f raw times (best of 113.0) of the 4 who was the fastest router. Since the 4 comes off a blowout win I was almost set to go back to lines 8 and 9 to compare sprint times to the 5 which could have given the edge to the 4. The 4’s next-to-last race caught my eye though where it pressed a more sluggish pace and then gave it up in the stretch. At this point I just saw the 5 doing the same thing today and then being able to use that sharp sprint speed to overcome the 4 in the stretch.

FWIW if you wanted to use the sprint to route conversion that Hat suggested in the first Match-Up book (p.73) here is what you’d get:

#5 Raw Sprint: 46.3 111.1 (fifths)
Add 2/5’s to each call = 47.0 111.3
Add 6 2/5 per half-furlong plus 4/5 turn deceleration to create a mile final time:
6.4 (tenths) X 4 =25.6 +.8 = 26.4
Projected route line = 47.0 111.3 138.0 2-2-1-1
#4’s last race= 48.1 113.0 138.3 2-1-1-1

Anyway, hope that helps….

great detailed answer...
 

Pete....

Many thanks to take the time to reply ...I got more than I bargained...

Keep up the great work in matching races....

Take care....

Nicely done Pete
 

I wish I had taken a look at this race over the weekend. It was a great race to put up on a sprinter stretching into a route.

For those interested in Pete's contribution to the Hat Check on sprinters stretching into a route, here is the link.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3986

Tim