Paceline Selection Questions
 

Hi guys...will be coming back here now and then

For today...using RDSS

A horse won his last race with his 3rd best TPR
4 lines down he has his best TPR


hes now entered in a race

If u use his last race, the BL/BL puts him 3rd...
If u use his 4th race back, his BL/BL is tops..

which one do u use?

thxs mike

Hi Mike,

diifficult question. Normally I go only three lines back for a horse.
But sometimes, when the fourth run was not too far back, I go for the fourth line. It depends really on the situation. You should note distance and surface as well, when you select a paceline.

Thanks...

Greetings
Tim

Hi & Thxs Tim for your reply..

I was guessing other cappers ran into this before and would tell what happened..
What if same surface and distance...and his last race was an easy win..like 5 lengths, would u say he had more energy in the tank and use the 4th race back???

mike

Hi Mike,

I think, the Doc wrote in a follow up magazine or in a manual, that when a horse is in good form, that you can go back some lines more.
I do this sometimes as well, when a horse has form. But when a horse is out of form in his last three runs, it is a big failure to go too far back.
There is proably something wrong with the horse.
When a horse has winning form, then you know it can win and can show more.
In high class races, you can go more lines back as well, someone told me. In low company, recent form is more important.

Thanks...

Greetings
Tim

Thx Tim...I'll keep a track on the class and form the horse is showing

1 or 3
 

Hello Mike

Doc wanted his clients to think of BLBL tiers as non linear
he even thought about calling the tiers greek names
because people naturally think 1 is better than 2 and 2 is better than 3
but Doc wanted the clients to treat them as equals and
make betting decisions that were based on odds and what your records showed had the best corollary support

So If I used line 1 and line 4 (line 2 or 3 would have to be non comparable)
and the horse was tier 1 or 3 I would bet it if it was the one of the two horses in my top 3 or 4 contenders

Thanks Bill

After trying to get a fix on whether the horse was headed up or down in form cycle, I would use the last race.

There is usually little or no difference between tier #1 and tier #3. If the horse is good enough off its last performance, why require it to run back to its best?

Dick

In low class races if a horse won last out I throw him out, almost for win consideration. These horses will almost allways go at low odds and seldom ran good two in a row.