How The Old Man Bets
 

I have been retired for 3 years now and i bet to have fun and supplement my retirement income.For the last year and a half i've kept it simple.I just bet on mid-claiming sprints and mid-claiming turf routes.These races run true to form most of the time and looking at my record keeping these are the races i have made a profit.

My simple procedure:I use Val4 because all the lines are equalized,normalized and adjusted.Sometimes,i use Spec160.

Sprints:

I look at the race and if i see the morning lines of 8/5,2/1,5/2 and if the pp's say these horses really look good,i pass because the public will agree.I look at races where the m/l odds are 5/2,4/1,6/1,7/1...these is where i'll probably find a horse that i like and the most of the crowd will not like.This procedure is the same i use for turf routes too.If there's a confusion on recency or form,like say two contenders have not race in 3 months,i pass.I try to narrow it down to four contenders using total energy.I bet the horse that Energy2 predicts will win.

Turf Routes:
I look for a horse best turf line up to six months...Narrow the contenders to 4.I bet the horse with the best projected power fraction or best closing velocity.

I put these contenders to Jim Bradshaw's Aodds98 Super Gold and export the race to Energy2.

Flat betting $20 to win/horse:
Last year,on sprints ...i bet on 588 races and won on 153 of them for a 26 win %.My ave.mutuel was $9.20. Total amount bet on 588 races= $11,760
Total amount won on 153 bets =$14,076 for a profit of $2316 ...ROI = .19

Turf Routes...I bet on 214 races for a total amount = $4280 ...I won on 61 of the races ,total amount collected=$6954 .Win %=28. ...Profits of 42634 ...ROI = .61

Bankroll:

If you have $2000 ,with a betting unit of $2 and you lose 13 in a row...it will not bother you.But if you only have $100 and lose 13 in a row,will you have the guts to pull the trigger on the next bet?...
When i started this,i took out a portion of my 401k retirement fund.So there's no pressure for me.I also have a comfort zone of $20-$40 tops,and anything over that i don't feel relax.

Remember Mike Pizzola's advice; "Let the bet make you"...It's that feeling that you have total confidence on your bet.If the betting wondow is 5 miles away,will you take that trip to bet? After doing it for awhile,you'll get that feeling.If not,there's another race.And if i lose,so what...next...

Exercise and diet:
I keep myself physically fit by fast walking and hitting the heavy bag a few times a week.You have to keep in shape.I also try to eat good most of the time.I have a pizza now and then with my grand kids.

There's more to life than horse racing.I take a break every few weeks.I don't neglect my wife and family.

Ray

correction on turf route profit=$2634

turf route ave.mutuel =$11.40

sorry,the old man forgets.

Nice going Ray. You have a solid plan and work it well. Wishing you continued success.
Tim

Thanks,Tim.I also wish you more happy birthdays too.

Thanks Ray.
Tim

While I'm not familiar with the old Sartin programs, I really enjoyed your post. Thank you, Ray.

Ray
 

Yours is a real success story. I really appreciate that you took the time
to post your procedure.

I am very happy your doing so well, In racing and in life

Bless you

Bill

Mick and Bill V,thanks.All of the guys on this board and Ted are the nicest and a class act all the way.Bill V,congrats to your FG Pic 3 hit the other day.Rooting for you always.

Ray

Nice post Ray. Staying within one's comfort level helps to make better decisions, no pressure.


Mitch44