Santa Anita 3-09-2013 Sat. Race 3
 

It seems most are busy with the contest...So I chose this race for a couple of reasons....

A)It has a horse who appears to be a speed of the field.....

B)It has a horse who seem to pair two races together after a brief layoff..

This is where it runs two similar races on adjusted numbers and seem to work on early pace in one race and late pace in another race...all this is subject to interpretations....

C)It is a small field and easy to put up on the board...

So please feel free to chime in with your own interpretation...

Here are the pps...

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Quick comments
 

I narrowed the race to 3 contenders....

#4 Mucho Besos
#5 Graeme Crackerjack
## Bay Rush

The pace of this race will be set by #2 Baron Von Red who is coming off a 6 F sprint race with fast splits of 21:4 and 44:3....But I evaluated his last fractions from his previous route race and I was not impressed....

#5 GraemeCrackerjack is the horse that I mentioned that paired his last two races...this one seem to be ready to go back to his previous best races...

last paceline...he ran closer to the early pace
2nd paceline ---came running from the clouds from the back of the pack--late pace...

#4 Mucho Besos--last paceline...this one has what Bill V. referred to as the "Magic Sartin Sustained" even though he ran on the early pace....

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Bay Rush..I went to the power line 5th paceline back...(Don't let FTL hear about this as he will be squirming ....)

I ran this race in Thoromation...

First screen came up EXDC

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Sp screen
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Thoromation screen

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(IMHO)

Good skills

Thanks for putting up the race, Lone Speed.

The first thing I do is briefly scan the contestants to get a Gestalt feeling of the race.

What immediately jumps out is the fact that four of the eight horses have just been claimed. Let's see if that provides any insights.

#1 Donato claimed by Kristin Mulhall. 18% first off the claim.
#5 Graeme Crackerjack claimed by Doug O'Neill. 10% first off the claim.
#6 Spit Ball claimed by Ronald Ellis. 16% first off the claim.
#7 Brass Plate claimed by Bobby Grayson. 0% first off the claim.

Not only is Bobby Grayson 0% first off the claim. He's 0% second, 0% third and 0% fourth off the claim. This is a valuable piece of information. I can eliminate #7 Brass Plate from contention immediately.

Let's see who's fastest enough to win, based on every horse's last ten races shown in the past performances. #6 Spit Ball is too slow to win. We're down to five contenders for win.

How does the race shape up? #1 Donato appears to be the sole front runner and will be the horse to catch. He's also get the best EP rating. Donato has the best recent Beyer number, but it's the best number shown in his past performances. Can a six year old gelding repeat that effort? Answer: not likely, he'll probably bounce. Can he bounce and still win? Maybe. So, Donato has arrows pointing in both directions.

I won't be betting the race, can't figure out#1 Donato. But if there were a gun to my head that would be my pick; or, if I could get 10-1 on the horse I'd send it in. But most certainly not at 7/2.

Thanks Lone Speed, it's funny you picked this race because I had just downloaded the PP's to put this up! I thought the pace scenario made this one interesting to match up. I will post my take after scratches...

Donato needs open lengths to win; when he has to fight he loses - who can press enough? The 2 might, but Donato has set faster fractions and won, the 4 looks to press without wanting the lead.

Using last lines Donato has the best 1f and 2f. Close call but I take the 1 and 4. Probably sideing with Donato an open class winner of 9 against horses just won NW3L (mucho).

Good luck

Looking at the pace setup and speed figs, Donato looks tough. There are 2 horses that show a win at an open C20 - Donato and Graeme.

BRIS has O'Neill at 17% 1st Off Claim over the last 252 races - fine by me. Psychologically, he kept a piece of the claim and puts the horse in for $18,000 to get the 2 lbs. allowance. He also puts Bejarano on the horse who won with him at these conditions and just missed in an allowance race where he wasn't up for a claim. On the figs I use, he's the only horse that can match Donato's last.

Question is: Can he get the pace he needs, right around 1:10 in those bottom races?

Well, Baron's workout 2 back tells me he's in condition to push the pace in a route so it's possible he sets it too fast or at least pushes Donato hard.

The other question I ask myself is: who's improving? I see an improving pattern on Graeme, Muchos, and Spit. The best speed figs in that pattern is Muchos, who should have the first jump on the leaders. Spit's figs seem too low for the win but I've seen stranger things happen with so many claims in one race and Ellis is very good. If you throw out the turf handicap, Donato shows nice improvement as well, maybe too nice. Hell, in a short field, I wouldn't be shocked if Baron stole it.

So, you ask, what's the betting decision? I see Donato as the most likely winner, with Muchos and Graeme if he can get the pace nailing him if he falters. Based on the ML in this race, I see no value anywhere, so unless one of those 3 drift up odds wise at least to 6-1, I pass. I could see Donato at 9/5 and Gomez and Rafael will keep the odds low on the other two in this field right at or below the ML.

PASS - reward not worth the risk.

The 1 should get the lead. He runs terrible 3rd fractions. A decent sustained horse should be able to catch him. OUT.

The 2's last race off the L/O is not good. Should be chasing the 1. I think the race will run sustained. OUT.

The 3 is a deep closer with bad positions at the stretch call. OUT.

The 4 will be close enough and fought at the first call in his last. Can handle fast sprint paces. Contender.

The 5 is late and way behind at the stretch call. Couldn't beat the 1 when the 3rd fraction went 34.2. OUT.

The 6 sat fourth in at first call in last. Has won 2 in a row which may be a negative. Contender.

The 7 couldn't beat the 1 against the 34.2 final fraction. Way behind at the stretch call. OUT.

It's between the 4 and the 6. The 4 should be closer and is my choice.


Tim

Hey Guys----The 1 is the lone speed here and the only question to me is if the 2 can push it too fast. My gut says it won't. Looking at its sprint lines I don't see him being as sharp as it was in previous lines.

I'll stick with #1 to win...

As We can see, great variety of analyses ....great to have everyone jump in here...

I can always learn with an open mind with each person's different point of view...

I hope others that are new will take heed and see the reasons behind the views....win or lose...

Thanks everyone...

Come on !!! Richie...honeymoon is over....

Wow, what happened to the 4. Did anyone catch it?