Paceline Selection - some observation
 

One observation re: my paceline selections early on in my journey compared to recently... earlier on, if Line 1 was an outlying 0 line - not beaten badly, but not good enough to be considered a (+) and typically a "Front Half of the field" performance, I was treating it as a non-comparable race for ratings purposes and moving backwards, usually settling with a + or (+) line from L2 or L3 providing it was recent and at or near today's distance. Typically, that race would end up coincidentally being the best of last 3 Adjusted Speed Rating. This "loose" approach was working for me.

I am aware that in the Paceline Manual, the guideline is to always consider the last line unless there is a valid excuse to go back further, and that "last line" can be expanded upon in various ways (e.g. last line before layoff, last line before trip trouble, last line on a dry track, etc). Rather than summarily dismissing a runner off a last out "0", I interpreted this particular "0" line - regardless of whether there was trouble - as I explained above, as a reason to backtrack.

At some point, I began changing my tune towards this, even though it was putting me on some winners. I began to really become tight with FTL's guidelines. Granted, FTL's guidelines are founded on logic and on his own personal research/experience (I give him 2 thumbs up for his hard work!) and can keep someone new to racing or the Methodology in general from getting themselves into constant poor decision making. The skill of passing races with too many unknown variables is just as valuable as being able to select pacelines and contenders, IMO.

Anyway, I began to tighten my standards, started mixing with other suggestions that members here have thrown in my direction, but with no success. I'm not pointing fingers, far from it - I make the decisions about pacelines, contention and wagers, not the members of Pace and Cap. The information disseminated by this group is invaluable, but as has been mentioned, if we focus on too many factors, the amount of noise increases. Same goes for taking too many voices at heart. The noise increases and it becomes difficult to maintain any consistency.

Today, after Tampa, I looked back at many of my selections from earlier in the month when as one would put it, "life was good!" I could see that my line selections were more intuitive rather than rigid - decisions were made more clearly and rapid fire. Lately, tough decisions have been wrought with second guessing my first instinct. The first instinct, as I've learned from years of test taking in public school and college, is usually correct.

I need to play to MY records and intuitively, and not necessarily towards every guideline or axiom known to man. I lost sight of that. Shame on me. Having gotten that out of my system, tomorrow starts a new month and I refuse to be an April Fool! :D

Jeebs: That pace line manual was written around 1985 and is no longer valid . The "Doc" changed it to the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance.
This still comes down to two important factors ,contenders and pace line selection.
Follow Doc's" guidelines and your results will improve dramatically.

Pick a race at GP tomorrow and I'll go over picking the lines for that race.
Mitch44

Hi Jeebs
 

I hope I have not confused you, We all are here to help each other,

Its important to learn what works, If you feel anxious about what your doing , then keep an open mind and PRACTICE

Mitch will graciously help you

We all want to see you succeed

Bill

No worries, Bill. As Yogi once said, 100% of this game is half mental :D I totally understand what the spirit of this board is about: to help others win. I haven't forgotten that and that is what drives me. I was a member of a New York racing message board with KPMats10 for years and it got swallowed up by negativity and people hanging onto sacred cows. That board is still around, but the guy that owns it posts mostly pictures of his three cats and talks to himself in a Handicapping sub-forum.

www.newyorkracingboard.com if you're interested in the entertainment.

Our place is truly special.

Hi Tim
When Mitch and I joined in 1990 we were taught the best of the last 3 comparable was the method of paceline selection. In Follow Up #81 in the publishers' section Doc clearly states the the last line is no more predictive then lines 2-3-or sometimes 4. That doesn't mean to totally disregard the last line[may indicate a horse going off form]. Later Doc began to favor compounded ratings over the visual matchup. As each of us becomes more versed in the Methodology we tend to have little quirks about why we won't use a certain paceline such as using sly lines on a fast track or lifetime best races by older etc. The bottom line is we must continually evaluate our approach to line selection and above all be consistent with it.
Tim G

I know it's been talked on here a lot before about follow the guidelines, follow the guidelines...

For us novices and not as experienced methodologists, I would like to see more of the teaching members here do a little more instruction, maybe even a live video with open discussion. Gotomeeting.com is an excellent video hosting site that is free for 30 days to anyone with an email address who hasn't registered previously for the free trial.

I like what Jeebs is doing, sparking interest and discussion on a daily basis. I'm working offline with a member here who has offered to help me on a one on one basis as requested. Just my thoughts. We're all here to learn, let's see more teaching.

Hi
Being new to RDSS but not Doc Sartin's Pirco group(I joined in the late 80's after listening to some Dick Mitchell tapes were he told of the Sartin Methodology) I took off over 12 years of handicapping because of family concerns,discovering Ebay to sell my 30,000 worth of 45's and the complete destruction by the idiot legislature that totally destroyed Michigan horse racing and caused the Ladbrook corporation to demolish Detroit Race Course,which I loved. Hazel Park which gave up racing to concentrate on Harness,which fell apart for them in the past few years and now run simulcasting and so called racing?? of 3 legged animals on Friday and Saturday nights
I too would like more and more teaching posts and certainly more VIDEO posts! I learned so much from Ted,Bill and Ritchie's video's!
One problem seemed to be on some Video's the teacher's said they would do some races later and as far as I know,never did them
I respect all who respond here and Ted has been more that helpful! A true class act!
I am having some problems lately with understanding some readouts but will post specific questions when I can
Hope to hear some more from teaching members
Papa John

I feel a key takeaway that I got from my "tune up" with Mitch44 was in utilizing the entire past performance record. It is very easy to get "zoned" into the last 3-4 races, that one fails to evaluate how it got to its current form and condition. Pace is "the matchup" and it is vital to evaluate how horses have performed under previous pace conditions comparable to today's. Both Perceptor totals and Total Energy can open up many clues.

Hi KP and Papa. Unlike the old days when Doc named those he wanted as teaching members I don't believe outside of Ted and Bill V that there are any official teaching members. What we do have are veteran members who have been posting on various subjects. Perhaps if newer members would post more questions we could get a broad based session going where ideas could be freely exchanged. The problem is the newer folks would have to determine which info they want to accept. Jeebs has done a great job of getting a great back and forth session going. KP has a good idea of selecting and working with another member he has trust in. I'm pretty sure that there are older members here that would lend a hand if asked.
Tim G

When we're picking pace lines its easy to pick a bad line with an extreme variant for that line. Besides a variant is useless unless its put in context with the others variants from the other horses in the race. I.e. a variant of 40 may be perfectly OK if all the other horses have a similar variant. A 10 variant may appear to be perfectly normal but not when all the others have -13 etc. that's a huge difference of 23.

I strongly suggest after picking all your pace lines go to the BLBL screen then click on the original tab. On this screen are all your horses and to the right it shows all the variants. Don't assume a variant is normal. I.e. a range from 17 to 27 is normal. View them in the context of what's normal for the horses in that race off the Original Tab of the BLBL screen. A -13 may be normal for fast tracks like SA etc. When you see a 10 for the SA as compared to the others -13 Take notice.

When you find one that is abnormal go back to the horses chart and try to pick a better line. There will be many times you have the best line and the other lines are even worse. In that case I suggest you view the horses CR or CR+ to determine if its a true contender.

Additionally with mixed distances such as having no choice and having to use a 8.5 F line in a 10F race. That horses will destroy your BLBL readouts because of the speed of that race and its an unknown if it can maintain that in a much longer race. The adjustment of a horse like that makes it too fast. Horses going longer have to prove it and deceleration normally takes place somewhere. A horse cutting back generally will run faster and has proven its ratings.

View your pace lines in context of distance and total pace. I.E. Same Tot. Energy but one is from a 6F and the other is from 7 F and today race is 7F, advantage 7 F horse because it proven the distance. Reverse that and today is a 6 F race with the same Tot. En. I would still favor the 7 F horse still as it can run faster cutting back in distance. Class is the ability to carry speed over a longer dis. of ground. This will help you with races of mixed distances which is also on the original tab where you'll find the track variant for all your contender etc. Similar total energy or near similar total energy.

Mitch44