Matchup Challenge Mar 14/15 by The Pook
 

Pook is up. I'm thinking we should try and take a bite out of the big apple this weekend. See if I can find something with a reasonable size of field on Saturday. Hopefully not cancelled or an off track.

Cat Fight at Tampa
 

On second thought it looks like slop in New York for Saturday. However at Tampa Bay where the weather looks fine there is an interesting scenario in the 11th race. Big field of $16000 claimers on the turf features an odds-on early horse named Grand Cat and a closer named Speedy Kitten. I haven't handicapped it but the situation looks interesting with the potential Cat Fight. ReeeeaaaaaaRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!

After scanning the past performances, I had the following horses as those that have managed to do something against some of the better paced turf races: 3, 4, 5, 8, 9.

The 9 looks slow, so I'll toss it out. The 8 horse's form is questionable if not dubious and it doesn't have enough to convince me that it can win.

The 3 is interesting, in that it is coming second off of a layoff and is dropping in class, but, when you look at its past performances there is very little to like about this horse. The last 3 races in its past performances it has lost by over 36 lengths, plus, if you take away the 1st via DQ, it has never had the pleasure of crossing the finish line first. It does have a nice morning workout, but I think it is asking too much to think the horse can win.

The more interesting horse of the non-favourites is the 4. Its Monmouth races at the bottom of its past performances are actually decent and it is in form. For it to win it needs the 5 to collapse. Granted it is stepping up in class, but according to the Brisnet PPs its best speed rating came on the grass. The only problem with the 4 is that its closing ability seems lesser than the ML favourite, the 5.

I think the 5 will win because it is the lone turf speed, is 2nd off a class drop, is losing its blinkers, and is much the best horse. However, since there is no value in betting it, I will pass the race.

No bet for today.

Scratches in 11th at TAM
 

7,11,13, and 14

Tim

Tb r11
 

Fav. should take this:

Ote
 

Ote

In looking at this race, the 5 looks like the speed. But this horse is 1 for 10 on the turf; lone win is maiden race. At 1 1/16 miles, she's beatable. She looks like she may quit on her own.

The others:

1: Might get swallowed up. Beaten badly by 5 in tandem. OUT.
2: Very deep; Doesn't move until late in race. OUT.
3: Nice move from 1st to 2nd call off layoff in last. Turf races early in 2014 very good. Contender.
4: May give 5 trouble early. OUT.
5: The horse I'm trying to beat. OUT.
6: Poor races in tandems. OUT.
7: Scratched.
8: Maiden win not impressive. Nothing since. OUT.
9: Very nice move against strong fractions in last. Contender for now.
10: OUT.
11: Scratched.
12: Might show speed. Out.

I'm left with the 3 and the 9. The 3 should be in front of the 9.

I pick the 3 to win the race.

GL

Tim

Here kitty kitty kitty......
 

Tampa Race 11

Tampa
 

The 5 is the obvious lone early and I can't confidently back any of the OTE's...I'll take the 5 for the contest.

Like Tim said the 5 quits on its own most of the time. LIfetime 1/14 and 1/10 on turf could win easily but at ML 3/2 no price. The 9 ran 8-4-2-2 in its last with the more lightly raced 6 closing 10-6-4. This is a C16000N2L so no one has beat other than maidens. The 9's best race is maiden win, but that being said I think it might be a price to be on the board and should be behind the 9 (i.e., its too sustained).

Nine (9) is my horse to win here.