Kentucky Derby using Marathon Method - Best Mile times
 

With apologies for perhaps one or two horses that MIGHT get into the field, but are not on this list, here is a spread sheet of the best mile times so far.

I took the mile times from the prep race charts and calculated the mile time of each horse using lengths back at 5 lengths per second to get each horses mile time.

On the top of the first sheet I ranked the top ten horses by their mile times. Some of the horses make the top 10 more than once, like Goldencents and Governor charlie. You will see my version of running style, the date, location and grade of the race, surface and distance from which the info comes. I prefer using mile times from races longer than one mile, so that is why I did not rank the horses with their mile races. If a horse came close to his mile race time in a longer race, thats a good thing!

There is some concern that the Sunland Park race was on a lightning fast track, so maybe it will be a good thing to view the Oaks on Friday to see how Midnight Lucky's time holds up against the best fillies. Her 8.5 furlong time of 141.00 is way faster than any other.

All of the times shown are RAW, no telling what the track to track and other adjustments will do to the adjusted times.

I got Lines of Battle info from the tape of the race and a few comments on the article. Horse definitely presses, but only previous race in US was Juvenile turf. The time was fast and the horse closed to the stretch call before finishing 7th. I am not too keen on using turf times (which would be second best here) for this race, but note this horse has run 9.5 furlongs, farther than any other horse in the field, successfully.

The top 4 horses on this list have run 6 furlong times below 111 and the best that the last five have run against is 112.36, which would highly pressure any EP types

I added a column this year for 2c-Fin time by half furlong. If the leaders can run 6.20-6.26 there does not look to be a lot of capability from the closing group. This Derby could run relatively early IMHO. Not sure if Tiz a Minister is even currently being considered as a starter - could not get any current info, but he is only horse with great late run against a fast pace.

Have fun with this. Remember something like 44 out of the last 48 Derbys has been won by horses on or near the lead at the one mile point of the Derby!

Bill

Thank you Bill


Wayne

Great Job, and Thank You
 

Great Information, and much appreciated.

Match up ...
 

Great Job
Match-up is a nice way to have the winner.

My final look at Derby
 

Using Marathon Method and some info from work-in-progress Matchup Module:

Good luck tomorrow,


Bill

Great work-up Bill!

Much appreciated!


Success to all,

Nice job Bill, thank you very much.


.Wayne