Kentucky Derby Day
 

Ok, 31 days to go for the big day.

I for one have quite a wonderful time waiting for this day each year, it has always have and always will present me with a challange.

A challange mind you it has won over the past 30 yrs or so, but I still get just as excited each year, Like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football, the one that Lucy keeps pulling back each time, yep that feeling.

But this year will be the year , and I would like to invite all of you to come along for the journey and together we can take this day and make it the best day of the year for all of us, ( handicapping day that is ).

This year may be one of the few days I play for real money this year, personal issue's have much of my time this year, but not this day, I will not surrender this day unless I am dead and buried. I am sure that this site and the people here we can take Derby Day and knock one out of the park, and do all this with a plan of attack that rivals no other , maybe even , (if Allowed ) have our own little pool for some of the larger wagers, say Pick 6 and such, just a thought, not if againgst the rules though.

I will post here occasionally giving some thoughts on my wagering strategies, but to just have some thoughts out there to think about...

Maybe the following

Rolling Doubles in each race max bet 3x3

Rolling pick 3's in each race max bet 3x3x3

Possible 3-4 pick 4's on the card hopefully .50 still open on max bets

Pick 6 wager

Derby Superfecta , this is my all-time ,"Nemisis" it gets me each year, so far


Well this would be where you can tell me how crazy I am and how I should quit handicapping for good, or you can join in and we can collectively try to conquer this 1 day of racing at 1 track, sounds simple enough....yeah right !!

patrick

Welcome back PK.. gonna be a great day...just one word of caution be careful with all those exotics....especially the superfecta and pic 6...those are almost impossible to hit.
I usually am in a pic 4 and pic 3 leading into the Derby with a a bunch of horses spread out...then I can spread out in the Derby which is sometime difficult to get unless you got 4 or 5 horses going...just a thought!!!!! What I like is that there is so much $$$$$$ in the pools almost anything you hit will pay good..but I stay away from exactas tri's and supers...I'm kinda like Jim "The Hat"...I couldn't hit an exacta if there was only 2 horses in the race....good luck

Random Derby Thoughts
 

Patrick...

Good to see you post again...I hope that you are doing well...

Some random Derby thoughts:

According to Thorograph....The best 3 year old currently is a FILLY!!

That's right. Dreaming of Julia has run the best Thorograph number and Beyer number so far. I believe Beyer had DOJ at 114 Beyer. I have never respected Beyer numbers especially in its usefulness in attacking the Kentucky Derby....

Verranzano, also trained by Todd Pletcher is expected to run in the Wood Memorial this Saturday. The wiseguys at Thorograph expect Verrazano to react severely for his huge numbers that Verranzano had run earlier this year. Too much...too soon...

I think that the Santa Anita Derby will be a key race this weekend. Baffert has three entries in that race; Flashback, War Academy, and Super NinetyNine. The pace scenario should be very interesting especially with Goldencents in the race.

Good skills

Thank you Gentlemen

Here were last years payouts, please note the difference from the 1.00 Trifecta payout as compared to the 1.00 Superfecta payout, WOW

Also a .50 pick 4 pays 7700.00 or so, again, wow.

1.00 tri paid 1500.00

Now that Louisville and Rick Pitino won the National Championship...the Louisville ladies team plays tonight.....Pitino is part owner of Goldencents...on Derby Day everyone in Louisville will have money on his horse, In my humble opinion there shouldn't be a horse under 9/2..but with all the Kentucky/Pitino money in the win pool look for Goldencents to be lower than he should be....I live 120 miles from Louisville and know that Pitino has a lot of fans around here and when people find out (those who don't already know)that Goldencents is his...there will be LOTS of extra money on him...just a pre-Derby thought

This is good info, and most likely the way it will turn out, after horse's basketball is king down there, (or vice versa), because we Floridians know they do not know how to play football yet, lol. Wait, Florida has back to back Championships in Basketball too.

Patrick


PS: With the main pre-races done, who do you think is the likely Favorite and why, and maybe who could be your sleeper this, anything Calvin rides ???

The likely morning line favorite will be Verrazano. Imho, he will be about 4 to 1 odds in a twenty horse field in a Super Huge mutuel field. Your second choice will be the Florida Derby winner, Orb.

Normally, Normandy Invasion should be about 10 to one or even 15 to one will be this year's "Wise Guy" horse. Half the grandstand at Aqueduct and on simulcast television saw that Normandy Invasion flew by Verrazano after a couple of jumps after the finish line.:eek:

Verrazano is undefeated and has some impressive lines in its past performances and is trained by Todd Pletcher. This one will be listed as your morning-line favorite.

We haven't got the results of the Arkansas Derby or the Blue Grass Stakes yet, to make a real complete evaluation of the Derby field. I will question the result of the Blue Grass because it will be run on synthetics which has a history of being favorable to turf runners or those horses with a strong preference for this quirky surface.

As far as evaluating Verrazano using the methodology, this one has a couple of chinks in his armor. This one does not have the best sustained line nor does he have the highest total energy from his pacelines depending on how one chooses the pacelines. His hidden energy rankings are deficient to quite a few contenders.

The pace horse in this year's running will be Governor Charlie trained by Bob Baffert who broke the track record at the Sunland Derby distance. But there were about 3 or 4 track records on this "souped up" racetrack on Sunland Derby Day in New Mexico. On raw fractions, this one looks like a main contender on paper.

Here is the result chart of the Sunland Derby:
Attachment 34045

Sunland Oaks:
Attachment 34046

sprint stakes at 6.5 F

Attachment 34047

6F maiden race: ticks off the distance track record

Attachment 34048

As you can see, it was a very fast track.

Good skills:)

I won't be running any numbers til' the entries come out but got a lot of things runnin' thru my head about this derby...Castellano takes Normandy Invasion instead of a Pletcher horse(Revolutionary) and Rosario will be on ORB...these 2 guys are about as hot as anyone right now...I don't handicap Jockeys or trainers per say..but it's good to have a world class guy riding on derby day...those 2 horses have really impressed me so far..along with Goldencents. I'm guessing that Verrazano's pace figs are gonna show to much early with a 68% or higher median energy..that won't cut it at CD in a 2 turn race...hope he goes off 3 or 4 to one...that will give me some juicey prices on some others....just handicapped Kee for saturday...man that BG Stakes is a mess...I hate poly tracks.....catch you later

Well all the major Prep's are in...
 

Guess no real Female's are going to threaten the boys this year, so who is the Fav, I think the basketball connections will be played very hard, hopefully too hard, and thus better horses and nicer prices will prevail.


The standings below