Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Belmont 3 Marathons in a row, Saturday 7/8

The Belmont grass surface was not raced on yesterday due to rain and most likely this weekend's card.Prior to that it was running pretty fast, so while it may not be at its fastest I expect faster times today for races 8 and 10.

Race 8:

Not a lot of speed here. the 8 in tandem with the 1 four times, beat the 1 four times, so the 1 is out for win. The 8 ran 1-1-1 off of a 113.7 pace. The 8 was the BC turf Juvenile winner pressing a 110.1 winning in 134 while pressing. I think the 9 leads here having run 2-3-2 in 112.1 in 135.2 (was gaining .1 length from 3rd to 2nd in that race)

The 2 looks to be improving and has run 4-4-2 in 135.3 off of a 111.3.

There are 3 Euros making their first start here and based on TM ratings this year the 7 looks to be the best of them.

The 11 has run against 135.2 but has only placed vs this time, having come from far back at the mile.

Because of the Euro contingent, I am going deeper here. I like the 2-8-9 and 7 at the end.

Race 9:

Almost a gimme. Except for Arrogate Shaman Ghost would be a lot richer. the 1-2 and 4 appear slow and the 5, Follow Me Crev has run 135.1, 4-4-3 off of a 110.6 fraction and could be the upsetter.

6 will be proverbial odds on favorite so I am boxing the 5-6 and hoping the 5 is just a little better.

Race 10:

Again a few Euros to contend with. The 3 and 10 come from Aidan O'Brien. The 5 has near top TM ratings as well. I will use the 5 and 10

Almost no speed here and the BC winning Oscar Performance could be all alone. The 7 won on the lead but in a maiden race and has since run as S. The 6 appears to run closer to the lead on turf winning a maiden race 2-2-1 off of 136.8 and winning a grade 2 next out from 138.2 and 6-5-2, off of a 113.6

The 4-1-2 have run that order two times already with OP winning both. The 1 and 2 are S types. The 1 beat the 2 3 times head to head, so 2 is out.

Of the rest I like the 9 who ran 5-5-2, 136.8, off of a 113.2 internal fraction. Ran a flat mile off of 112.1 and placed less than 2 back in 135

#4: 1-1-1 136.4 off 112.6
#6: 2-2-1 136.8 off 111.8
#1: 7-7-4 136.5 off 113.3 - out too far back
#9: 5-5-2 136.8 off 112.2

#10 and #5 Euros. #10 O'Brien horse most often ridden by Ryan Moore who might give Mike Smith a run for his money. I know, its not Hat Marathon method but there are too many ?? among Euros and others.

6-9-10-4 if I have to narrow it down some. Could be a nice price!