Are you using these two tools?
 

APV is a tool I seldom hear about nowadays and the manual 55% solution finding the place horse.


A recent example of its power was yesterday at OP on 5 Apr.18:


Winners Top 2 APV were 5
" " 3 APV " 7
" " 4 APV " 8 Now that's of 9 races & all on the same day,( 5 Apr.18) no cherry picking.


How about EX.?


APV rankings 2 & 3 for $ 54.80
" " 1 & 1(Tie) $ 15.80
" " 3 & 2 $ 156.20
" " 2 & 4 $ 257.00 Cha Ching
" " 3 & 1 $ 47.80
" " 4 & 3 $ 32.60
" " 1 & 2 $ 74.80
Yep!! Your reading that correct 5 of 9 top 3 & 7 of 9 EX. top 4.


BTW I had that $257,00 payoff twice.


Now these results aren't going to happen like this everyday, the point here is that it is a powerful tool that is ignored in the Sartin tool box.


Perhaps with Ted's new Template 4 someone can collect some data on this tool for a more longer study. HINT!!!

Additionally members should read the 55 % Solution Manual that's in the library which expounds on APV and catching EX's like above. Older members like LT1 and I are well aware of these tools. Are You?


Happy hunting,
Mitch44

Class
 

Trying out my own class ratings here use the RR an CR in Bris. See what happens.


Race 1. Keenland

1-2-4

Bob

They work very well.
Tim

Nice hit Mitch!

I quite enjoy reading the old manuals. Often I'll revisit one, such as the Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion which I'm working through now. Re-reading them always clarifies some point or another.
As was Howard's way of writing things in a way that you had to earn the information, it's easy to skim and miss vital nuggets.
I'm usually left with a sense of, "oh no, how did I not remember that!"

Its amazing when you go back and re-read that you understand it much better. That really comes from your experiences since you last read it.


Yep the "Doc's" way of writing wasn't always clear and to the point which made understanding more difficult. I also believe it was by design.


Everyone should go back once a year or so and read them again. No matter how long they have been around.


Enjoy,
Mitch44

apv
 

My records at Aqueduct show the winner being in the top 4 of APV only 70% of the time, although routes are a little bit better. There are many more factors that show a much higher rate.

Hi Charlie,


I've noticed that the % is much higher eliminating 3 yr. olds and all Maiden races.
Real value also may be getting the place horse from top 4 at good odds.

You ae correct that there are some better tools without quantifying.


Mitch44

Hi Mitch
 

I am very interested in learning more.
Please tell me where I can find the documentation.

Happy Punting!
Jon

Hi Mr. Pagine;


Sartin expounded on this in the 55% Solution manual that is available to read here at RDSS.
Originally APV was first talked about in the original yellow manual. Its a part of what we know today as CR & CR+. Read Follow Up # 5 page 7 for how this is all done etc.


Is the CR & CR+ an even better tool for winners and EX.'s? A regression should be done to actually get that answer.


If I recall correctly on 6 Apr.18 the day after this original post in the 6th at Kee. the # 3 APV won at $ 48.80. The place horse was ranked 6th however it was the favorite for a $ 170.80 EX.

I just believe that APV, CR & CR+ are under used tools that aren't in many members tool box and for others are just collecting dust. Collecting the data doesn't take long for 100 races. Of course eliminating races with limited data improves the results such as 2 yr. olds, MSW etc.


Mitch44