Tampa Race #6 for Saturday
 

Here's a field of 10 for non winners in a year which looks like it has some reliable speed at 6.5F.

Let's see what happens.

Attachment 36791

Tim

Post time is 2:55 ET

I used the pace of the last race as todays pace from the 7. A pretty good fighter that should take out the 1-9-10 other earlies, If the 7 weakens I like the 3 at a price because he made up ground in a faster pace back a ways it its history. the 6 would be my second closer in a failing pace scenario, assuming that could happen tomorrow.

good luck to all,

Initially, I thought the 7 and 10 were going to do each other in. I've changed my mind. The 10 is not fighting like he was 3 or 4 back. The 7 on the other hand since shipping from AQU has improved both race fighting for the lead in the last race. Had a solid 12 2/5 from the half to the stretch call. I think he'll go wire to wire.

The 7 is my choice.

As a side note, I haven't been doing well lately. When looking at some of the races I've missed, I see that I've dismissed early horses when I shouldn't have. This might be that kind of race.

Tim

Yeah Tim I also thought that the 10 might be a problem early because he showed some pressing ability in line 3, but it looked like you or I could have pressed that slow race, so I classed him totally early off his body of work and out he went. Still see the 3 as best closer. He advances at more calls and makes up more lengths than any other horse in the field. I like 7-3 box.

I see the #7 getting the lead in the 46.2 neighborhood with the #10 pressing. The #5 has been running against faster paces and should run his comfortable third and will have more than enough left in the tank to pass both #7 & #10. The #6 should come running late to get in the money. Depending on the odds, my wager will be the 5 with the 6 or 10.

Good Luck to all. Pat C.

Good morning guys. I see the 7 as the dominant early too. I love the 1C fighting last time and still carrying that lead further than its previous race.

As an aside Tim, I think that (calling a race OTE and then having one of the early group win) is one of the more common mistakes to make with matching, especially raw matching. At least I know it is for me. I have thought about keeping records by track, dist and surface regarding my E/OTE call and which group the actual winner came from. Perhaps even ranking them within each group (#1 E #2 E, #1 OTE etc.) Sort of modeling myself and the track to see if any patterns emerge that can be helpful in the future.

Best of luck today...

Good afternoon everyone! Looking at this race I see that the 7 looks like the dominant early, however, he faced the 10 in the 2nd race back and couldn't get the lead. Also, in this race they are running a longer distance. Because of this, I changed my mind and decided it would be run OTE. Both the 3 and the 5 look like they can handle the best early pace, but I am having a hard time separating so I will pick them both to win.

Results Tampa #6
 

This obviously was a tough race. The pace did materialize with the 1,7,and 10 up front.

Attachment 36801

I picked 7 s well as the numbers spoke for themselves. I thought it would wire.

I'd like to discuss and disect the race to perhaps see if there is something that I missed. Is there something I should have seen? Is there anything in the 8 horse that showed its potential?

Perhaps this is one where you just can't predict the future or perhaps a race that should have been passed.

Looking forward to hearing from all regarding the race.