M4$16/2 Aug 20-Pat C.
 

Pat C.

Hey everyone, sorry I am late. I kept waiting to see the race for tomorrow and then discovered it was my responsibility.

Let's go back to Woodbine and try a turf race. Looks like no rain is expected so maybe the scratches will be limited.

Woodbine race #4 8F Turf OC6250

Good luck all. Pat

Here are the conditions, tandems, and entrants.

4-8

And 9

Pook, Thanks for the screenshots. Haven't figured out how to do that yet. Pat

No problem Pat. Thanks for posting your choice of race.

Pook

I think it will be OTE with a projected pace of 46.6 and 1:10.3 based upon #7's last race. At first glance, I thought the pace setup was simple with 5 and 7 forwardly placed, but not so fast, cowboy. There are three horses exiting turf sprints which could mean some hot early energy. While 5 and 1 should win, 4 and 9 could win and that's my play today.

To win - 4 and 9.

This is a tough race for me and if I hadn't selected it I would pass. The #7 should get the lead. However, I think it will run OTE with the #1 and #4 having the best chance of winning off of recent lines. However I am going to take a chance on the #3 and see if in his third race back, he is still the same horse he was two years ago. If so, he should win easily. If not, we will both be up the track. Bradshaw said look at all the lines. In this case I hope he was right.

win and place on the #3

wo R4
 

This is a tough race to cap. I hope my local knowledge help. I am hoping #7 do not go for the lead and just press. #7 exit key race with several winner and ran against one of he fastest Pace of Race.

Pace: 23.4-46.5-110.1
OTE

$2 Win 7 - 9

WO4

Since you have to wager on a minimum of ten races you have to push yourself into less than ideal situations. This is one for me, but I think I have a reasonable chance for a score.

No reliable early to grab onto. No reliable FPLR. No usable tandem scenarios.

Will narrow field using conditions.
a) In the last year #6 to #9 are winners of the 1 OT condition. #7,#8,#9 are three year olds. #6 is older but still in the 1 OT condition.
b) #1 to #5 are older horses winning in tougher conditions since Aug 2015 (except #3)

In #1 to #5’s races showing
a) #1 has never appeared in a Graded race
b) #2 has never appeared in a Graded race
c) #3 has appeared in three Graded races and was semi-competitive in his last one
d) #4 has appeared in two Graded races and was not competitive
e) #5 has appeared in four Graded races and was competitive in all four

Adjusted speed ratings of best of the last three races are tightly bunched. It may come down to who they have been running against.

#3 has good works
#5 won his last

#3 and #5 are my horses. Odds are 14-1and 5-1.

#3,#5 to WIN; #3 to PLACE
Pook

Congratulations Mick and cigar! Thats three nice prices in a row hit by the M4$ boys.

Pook

Thanks, Pook. I enjoyed reading your analysis.

mick

Thanks
 

Is any one playing WO today? let me know your taught on race 6. #9 to steal.

The Chart