Dirt Route to Turf Route
 

I was handicapping the SA races last night. I threw out the winner of R1 because he had no Turf lines in the last 10 races.

This horse has had mediocre success running dirt routes over the last 10, but finished 9 lengths and 14 lengths back in the last two races. The closest line in the distance was 8.5f race in January where he finished 7th by 6.5 lengths.

Today, he came out and went gate to wire over 10f.

My question is:

Is this a race where one should have passed because I couldn't find a good line on this surface?

Or

Do I try to adjust one of his dirt routes into what one could expect today?

Thanks,
Ryan

past performance of horse
 

Here is the pps of the horse in question

Race 1 at Santa Anita at a mile and 1/4 on the turf course:

Attachment 37853

Lone Speed- Thank you.

In RETROSPECT... the 3rd line was the correct choice.... ran some really nice fractions.

It ended up paying $16.80.

Any insight as to how one would select a paceline here would be helpful.

Match-up
 

This is where the match-up my shed some light as to how the race will un-fold.
I will look at a horse like the eventual winner when the dirt line is at least 10 point higher then the best grass horse in the field. In most cases I will pass races like the in your example. They only work when they work! and that's not double talk:)

Best,

Paul Link

I'm not at home, but here is the result. I'm more concerned with the overall process of how to handle a race like this than the result today the feedback loop).

When is it acceptable to use a dirt line in a turf race, and when should one just pass. I don't want to be throwing out winners because they're switching surfaces.

Also- thank you for responding. I'm appreciate all the insight.

Hi Ryan-

Welcome...I tend not to pick horses without lines from a similar distance/surface as today. However, there are exceptions. No matter what though, I always go through the same process with a race initially....

1) Project Pace
2) Develop a feel for Early/Other Than Early race shape

For those steps I don't pay much, if any attention, to surface. For projected pace I always use a line from today's surface. For the E/OTE call, I don't pay too much attention to it either. For example, if there are multiple wild E-types who need open lengths to win, and none can get their comfort zone today, I will look OTE regardless of whether their lines were on today's surface or not.

The next step is to match the contenders in my projected winning group (E or OTE) against each other. Here is where I can match lines from different surfaces if I have to. For example, if you were down to the horse you posted about and another horse who had both dirt and turf lines, you could match them against each other based on dirt lines. The Hat also talked about this being acceptable in routes where contenders only had sprint lines: match them against each other with their sprint lines so you're comparing apples to apples.

Only do this though if you have a feeling that the horse can handle today's different surface/distance. In practice, I rarely end up picking a horse like this. Usually, it is only in cases where there appears to be an extreme match-up bias favoring my horse. For example, a turf route with several wild E's against a fast dirt router who runs OTE.

If I don't have a good feel for whether the horse can adapt to today's race type, or if there are too many calls like this in a race, I will pass.

Hope that helps and maybe some of the other guys can chime in about how they handle it.

Good luck with the Matchup!

Pete

Pete,

That's was very helpful. Thank you.