Importance of Late/Early Difference Graph
 

I am a long-time Sartin follower who has used Phase 3, Synergism, Thoromation, Pace Launcher, Synthesis, and have ultimately settled on Multi-Track Synthesis using Trackmaster as my data feed. The program has quite a few angles for making money so each handicapper has to find what works for him or her. The angle I will present here has proven very effective on a variety of tracks, surfaces, and distances and from my perspective is the key to understanding how a race will be run! I will concentrate in this post on the early advantage, and down the road will create a post for late advantage.

Those who have the Late/Early Difference graph should study it to see how a race will be run. I like to use as a visual representation of a horse's running position with the horse having the highest late/early difference in the lead at the second call, the one with the lowest late/early difference running last at the second call, and the rest running in its corresponding position relative to the late/early difference of the other horses in the race. Horses with a high (positive) late/early difference oftentimes runs to the lead and can compromise other speed horses. While horses with the lowest (negative) late/early difference oftentimes comes running late.

My premise is a horse with a considerable early advantage compared to the other horses in the field can outrun its speed figures and win (or come in the money) at very high odds. Two races on Saturday (5/2/09) presented huge wagering opportunities for the handicapper that recognizes this angle.

The first race was the 3rd race at Hollywood Park. A race carded for maiden claiming fillies with a $25,000 price tag. It was a 10 horse field and only one of the 10 horses Warren's Ruby had positive early energy based upon its last race (20.8 was its figure). The horse with the next highest speed figure was the 2 (Love Song Mellody) and its figure was -1.8. And although Warren's Rudy did not match up well on any of the other figures, that was enough for me to make it a prime bet. Warren's Ruby ran straight to the lead, wired the field, won by a nose, and paid $32.40 to win, $12.20 to place, and keyed a very nice $99.60 exacta (for a $1.00 bet).

This is one case where a horse can consistently outperform its speed figures and my theory is since it is not pushed it can run to the lead but also conserve enough energy to get to the wire on top. Another pattern is horses who deviate from its normal running style by trying to run with a horse like this will compromise its own performance and not perform as well as its figures suggests it should. Legitimate speed can kill illegitimate speed!

The second race was the Kentucky Derby. In that race I threw out the 5, 9, 10, 12,14 18, and 19. The horse with the best figure was the 15 (Dunkirk), but it stumbled at the start and never got on track. Two horses in the field stuck out from all of the rest based upon its late/early differential: (1) The 4 (Advice) had a late/early differential of 1.3 (a horse that basically runs an even race); while (2) the 8 (Mine that Bird) had a late/early differential of 12.8. The late early differential tells us the horse has good acceleration. What it does not tell us is when that horse will use that acceleration.

Oftentimes that acceleration is used at the beginning of a race since that is how it is calculated. But (and especially in route races), I have seen horses that do not measure up with the rest of the field based upon its speed figure, but have the advantage based upon its late/early differential conserve its energy and show a tremendous burst of speed at the end of the race. That is what Mine that Bird did and won the race by 6 3/4 lengths. The third highest late/early difference horse was Dunkirk and its figure was -9.9. As you know Mine that Bird paid over $100 to win, $54 to place, and keyed a $2,000 exacta.

I will admit that I misplayed the race. I made Dunkirk my prime bet because I thought he would stalk the pace and explode in the far turn to win. I also keyed Dunkirk with Mine that Bird in an exacta and several trifecta combinations. Mine that Bird was my secondary pick and I made good money on the race, but if I had made him it prime bet instead of a secondary bet I would have earned about 50 times more than I did off the race.

In summary pay close attention to the Early/Late Difference graph, and when you see a horse with a huge advantage it may be worth a bet even though its other figures do not match up because somewhere in the race it has the potential to show tremendous acceleration!

Glad that others have seen that STYLE over SUBSTANCE (total energy or speed rating) wins all the time and at odds

Sam Wada
 

Excellent post Sir

Welcome to Pace and Cap

!

Sam Wada mentions how much he treasures the E/L readout
and Howard Sartin mentions this too in the One on One video tape sets

GS
Bill

Here is HOL 5/2 race #3 based on each horse's last race. The E/L figure is slightly different than mentioned above (due to updated TrackMaster variant), but negligible.

Attachment 16224

Presumably the #4 was (reasonably) deemed not fit, thus its E/L not its own but belonging only to the Pace of its last Race.

Interestingly, if you use the best of last 3 lines, you end up with the same E/L analysis - the winner #10 is still the Earliest (i.e. least Late), though with a less obvious yet still identifiable advantage. Just 'mentally' move that E/L dividing line to the left to see who ends up on the Early side. It's important to see the differences between the E/L numbers - that's why it's called the E/L Differential graph.

Attachment 16225

The Chart (maybe the #4's last line E/L was significant...)

Attachment 16226

Great post lueylump, one of the jewel concepts of the Sartin Methodology! Looking forward to your upcoming Late-side article.

Ted

E/L relativity remains alive and well

The #4 horse lost its last race by almost 24 lengths so I used its pace line from its 3rd race back. I have found that when I use a paceline in which a horse was beaten by more than 10 lengths it distorts my results. The exception is when I am playing Maiden races and virtually every horse lost by 10 lengths or more.

Horses RUN. People put TOO much emphasis on the rest of the field. It RAN, use the line, if it matches up, it is predictive.

Can anyone provide a primer on just what the E/L graph represents.

The difference between 2nd call and final fraction.

POSITIVE it shows the 2nd call was larger,
NEGATIVE it shows the FF was larger.

It took me a bery very long time to "GET IT" with energy but once I understood it WOW!!!!

The BASIC message is FORGET the overall total energy and think more about the energy distributions.

The E/l is a short cut for that