Day 30 DMR Feature Race Race 6 Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes
 

1 Mile Dirt Purse $100,000 Stakes TORREY PINES S.

The 3-year-old fillies run for $100,000 in the grade 3 Torrey Pines
This one looks like a good match up challenge
There is one speedy sprinter on the outside post

Torrey Pines is one of the first places I visited when I first came out to San Diego, It's a beautiful town. I helped out a real nice lady stranded when her car broke down, She thanked me and we ended up good friends.

The Beatles "Girl"

https://youtu.be/TlXJBh_So8o

Attachment 44094

Attachment 44093

Big mix of unknowns here but I thought I would try what The Hat used to do and compare apples to apples.

Two sprinters 4 and 8. Compare their best efforts against all others best sprint efforts. 2 and 6 have none so I saved them for later. For sprints its 1,3,4,5,7,8. This shows 1,7 as the best to carry speed into a route. Out with 3,4,5,8.

Now to compare turf races. 2,6,7 have turf examples. This eliminates the 2.

Down to 1,6,7. 1 has an enormous class advantage over 6,7. This seems like a round about way to get to what is obvious. If 1 is the same horse. She may not be. It will be bet right down. At this meet G1 drop downs usually prevail at low odds but I think I will take a chance on 6,7. For now. Maybe odds will change things.

6,7
Pook

Girl
 

Here are my early notations and readouts

:1: Paradise Woods , Early Big morning line favorite, Here last race was the Kentuck Oaks Grade 1
when she ran a (+) leading the way for the first two calls, But she has been away since,
I will rate here from line 2

:2: Chocolate Coated Press Line 1 is her maiden win It's her only dirt route line so I will rate it

:3: Zapperkat Press Line 1 is a win line. She has been off 115 days
Line 1

:4: Delightful Lady Presser Has never routed, Only has a maiden win. Today is the second race after a layoff
Line 1 is the race I will rate

5 6 7 8
 

:5: MistressoftheNight Sustained Nice solid win line in last race TPR's have improved in last 6 races
topping at 174 in the win line
Line 1

:6: Helen Hillary Sustained Only has turf races. She won and ran her other + race at 9 furlongs
so a dirt mile is something she has never done.

:7: Bernina Star Presser The last line is a sprint win, It was the first race back after a 86 day layoff.
This one broke her maiden going wire to wire at 1 mile at Santa Anita I don't think this is the same horse
I really have no other choice than to take the last line adjustments
Line 1

:8: Munny Spunt Early 4 time winner but only shows sprint races, Big adjusted numbers
at 10/1 could be a bet but the outside post might get her to use too much energy early
Line 1

Think it over
 

Pook I like your logic,

I have added the segments screen to get a feel of the early pace

I am in Flagstaff Az. It's a nice straight shot now till my delivery to
Albuergurque New Mexico. It one of my favorite routes, let me soak in my beautiful views and make a decision on my next rest stop.

Attachment 44095

Attachment 44096

Bill

How did you seperate the horses in the pgm like you did above (early,press,sus)?

Thanks

Bill it looks like you are on the road whenever there is a load. Weekends, weekdays, whatever. You are driving through Breaking Bad territory, if you are familiar with that TV series. Very hot and dry and beautiful. Never been there. If you see Jesse Pinkman or Saul Goodman give'em a wave for me.

Pook

My contenders are 1-3-5-6. The 1 looks pretty tough here and don't see any real value here so I'll pass.
Tim

El Paso
 

Well Tim you made a good call,
I thought it over as I drove. When I reached Gallop NM
I was about to pull over to watch the race, The 1 to me looked so strong
The 8 had the numbers, and 4 wins, compared to everybody else who only had 1 or 2 wins, But I had no route lines to rate and the outside post
made it too shaky, even at those odds
The 3 actually won the race but was DQ'ed The 8 ran really well coming from other than early

The 1 was a big bust
Well, we all agreed it was a race full of unknowns.It happens

Here are the 3 and 8 looking at the PP's it is strange the 3 went wire to wire and the 8 came from off the pace !

Attachment 44099

Attachment 44098

Attachment 44097