Matchup Challenge Apr 25/26 by PeteC
 

PeteC

Saturday
 

Here are the early PP's for Saturday's 7th race at Santa Anita. It's a good-sized field and pace projection seems clear enough which I always like. I'll post the program PP's tomorrow when they're available...

No need because the post postions are shown on the PPs as verified by equibase entries for Saturday.

Lots of early speed, the 1-2-4-5-6-8

The 1, 2, 6 and 8 won on open leads although the 1 has pressed 21.4-45.0-110.0. The 4 is just slow; the 5 has fought in 22.0-44.3-109.0 in its races at TUP, but at most likely a higher race level (not sure?); the 6 can press and gain lengths vs slower paces; the 9 is 1/69 races (yes you read that correctly).

The 5 has fought and can get to the 5f mark in 56.2 off of a 44.2 2nd call. I think this is the speed of the speed, but he could be compromised by all the rest of the speed, mostly from the 8 who ran 5f in 56.3

This leaves the 3 and the 7. The 3 is a bona fide mystery to me. After closing from 1C to 2C in the Grade 1 Malibu he dropped to this class and won handily. The PPs show that this horse has only once before been for sale, that being in his win at this level. Then he moved into open optional claiming and WAS NOT for sale. Now after dropping back to this State-bred $20K level HE IS FOR SALE. In his defense he stalked 44.1's in its last two races, gaining lengths both times, and has shown in two wins a need to lead at the stretch call. A repeat of two back would put him in the lead at that point over the battling speed. The 3 is one of only 3 horses with 2 or more wins, the 5 and 6 are the others.

The 7 has four races, all of them off layoffs, BUT he can run from 4th or 6th and pass horses. Its last race was probably an experiment after pressing a down the hill debut.

The main players for me are the 3-5-7 and all of them have question marks.

I think I will wait for Saturday scratch time to make a decision.

Santa Anita Race 7 4/25

Race Styles

Yikes is there a lot of horses that want the lead in this one :)

1 Early 22 45.1
2 Early 22.3 45.4 but the last three were Ugly I tossed this horse
3 Presser
4 Early 22.1 46
5 Early 22 44.3
6 Early 22.1 44.4
7 Presser
8 Early 21.4 44.3 fastest pace last race
9 Sustain

The pace of race is from the 8's last race 21.4 44.3 1:09.2 which is very fast

The 8 has never had to fight before, and the 1 horse is capable of running a 21.4 in the first quarter before fading. I am going to say that this will cause the race to run OTE which leaves just the 3 , 7 and 9 as my contenders. I am worried that the 8 will be able to hang on though.

The 3 has won against a 21.3 44.1 pace being 3 3 1, The 7 has run 4 3 1 against 21.4 45, and the 9 has run 4 3 2 against 21.4 44.2 that will put the 3 ahead of the 7 and 9 when the earlies tire.

My win bets would be on the 3 and the 8

Sa r7
 

Pete another great race you found to match. I will update if any scratches.

Adding to this crapshoot is the fact that none of the early horses consistently breaks first or second, so someone will have to go out strong at the start or there will be five across the track at the 1C. All the more indication of an OTE winner.

Race 7 SA
 

I like #3 Frensham- can withstand 21's and 44.1
Also like #8 Rule He Will- again can withstand the 21's and 44.3

Bob

PP's
 

Bill L....thanks for letting me know, that's a good point. Nevertheless, here is the update for those who like to peek at the ML.....

Sunday
 

Here is a race for Sunday at PRX. A small 6 horse field but an interesting match-up to me....