Beginners / Refresher Teaching Thread
 

This thread will be for newcomers and others wanting feedback / guidance regarding the the 5-Step Approach to the Match-Up. I learned this from Richie and am happy to pass on whatever I have learned. However, I am going to depend upon other veterans, many who are more experienced than me, to help with this.

For those who want feedback, please be sure to include the following for each race:

1) E-S-P running styles for each horse- When you identify an early horse, please indicate the pace that you feel it can set / handle today.

2) Today's projected pace

3) Some analysis of the "early scenario" today, including your determination of whether the race will run early or OTE

4) Your thought process in narrowing the contenders from your "winning group", including tandems

I will try to put up at least a race or two a week, with at least one of those being on the weekend so more people may have a chance to participate.

FWIW, I am not too concerned about potential payoff or whether or not someone picks the winner. I am more interested in people's process of using the match-up steps above...

Here is a link to the 5-Step Approach....

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715

10/21 prx #2
 

Here is our first race.....

Also, if you are looking for honest feedback, it's okay to me if you don't get to the race before it runs.....I know people are busy AND if you're looking for honest feedback I'm going to assume you are matching the race without knowing the result :)

Hope I covered all the bases (work in process).

Here's what I got.... Attachment 38328

4 & 6 fight for the lead, 6 doesnt get the lead it needs b/c of the 4 and vice versa -> they are out
2,3 out because they are now position >= 3 and doesnt win from there.
-> OTE and I go for #1 b/c powerline match-up vs. other OTEs

If I were two horse bettor, I would bet 1 and 6.

My 2 Cents.
 

I see the pace of the race going in 22.3 and 46.1 taken from the 4 horse last race. we want the horse to be in the first position at the first and second call to get our pace of the race. If this does not exist then we take the horse who ran against the fastest pace last race. I see the 4-6-3 getting in a ding dong battle for the lead, but i will call the 4 in the lead judging from his start position and first call positions and the pace he can run against. He can win against a 22.1 and a 45.4. The horse i see coming at the end is the one horse who is a presser. I will excuse his last race as the jock lost his whip, he ran a good race his 2nd back. On March 14 at penn he ran a very competitive race behind a 22.3 and 45.4. ! will dutch this race using the 1 and 4.

Bob

PRX 2 Oct 21
 

First pass through the PPs I tag 2 3 4 6 as early.

Eliminate 1 1A 5 8 9 as slow horses.

I use the WIN and ITM boxes to separate the Earlies and the OTEs so that I can compare them in their own groups.

Looking at the Earlies, which horse will get the lead?

All 4 horses like to break 1st.

3 Golden has taken the lead over 5f twice and won. Going 5.5f today. This will be my leader since she is used to getting out quicker over shorter.

What pace? I'm looking for the fastest she has run over this track since there are three other Es to lead.

Line 5 at PRX against 22 was 1.6 back, makes it 22.3

Here are the lines matching all 4 Earlies against 22.3

Attachment 38330


This shows 6 Katavi with the fastest raw times.

If the Early can't win, throw out all the earlies and look for OTE.
Can any of the Earlies win from OTE?

Attachment 38331


4 I'ma has won from 2nd
6 Katavi has won from 4th and chased down an open leader.

Betting 6 Katavi to Win.

Now, what to make of the 7 Quick? Lone S horse against 4 Earlies? Do we bet her at all 1st time over this track? I'd have to leave that to the PRX vets who know how to read a Pen shipper line.

Chuck, good point on the 7, looks to have a significant late pace advantage.

I have a pace projection of 22.1 - 45.2. The early horses are 2-3-6 ,with the #6 prevailing.
Looking at #7's pp's,looks like he's got 'seconditis'...(never winning,coming in second best a few times)...
#6 to win,putting #7 in an exacta-saver bet.

Ray

Pete,

Thanks for putting up this race. I haven't done the 5 step approach in a while. I'm going to try and follow the instructions exactly.

1. ESP

1 S needs to run against a 23.0 (all times in fifths of a second)
1A S Can handle a 22.1
2 E/P 22.1
3 E 22.3 from last race not fighting as of late
4 E 22.1 Only one off the lead effort and it was early
5 This horse is going south. Can't handle fractions from 4 or 5 races back.
6 E Last two way too fast early. Can handle 22.1 and fight.
7 S 22.4
8 No way
9 Can't get past last three.

Pace:

I am going to use the 6's race three back 22.1 45.1 57.3 1:04.2

Analysis:

The 4 and 6 are the only early horses with a chance. The 3 is too slow. There are a couple of tandems here (Astral/Nasty Cat and Astral/Blond on Blond) which involve non-contenders and are slow. The 4 may be able to stay with the 6 through the first call but the 6 will then pull away. The 6 is my choice.

GL

Tim

My winning group
2(P), 6(EP)

Todays projected pace
22, 45
from 6, 3 back. He is coming back to his level and showed form at first call last race.

Early Scenario
3,4,6 for the lead with 6 prevailing.

Tandems
6 to win but if too compromised by early pace bet 2
2 has beaten 1a,5,9 in tandem races. Disregarded 1a and 5 as contenders as a result. 9 didn't figure anyway.

Conclusion
Bet 2 and 6 if sufficient odds.

Pook

Exceelent
 

job Mr. Mowens.

Pook,

Hope you bet the 2.Congrats,bro.

Ray

To all that called the 2.
Congrats.

Didn't play out exactly as foreseen but a win is a win and I was all over it.

Pook

Congrats,Mike(mowens).Good odds too.

Thanks!

Could be beginners luck? Hope not!!

Yes nice work Tim. You had the edge to the 2. This one was easier to get down to 2, but picking from there was pretty tough.

Doing the Match-Up just by the pdf past performances is tough,but that's how The Hat wants us to learn.But I'm going to cheat and looked at it through his Energy program...

My bottom line rankings of the winners at Parx today are 3 ,2 , nc ,5 ,3 ,2 ,5, 5 bet 175 lost 175 Anyonae having success at parx--if so HOW?

Result
 

Good start guys! What a turn-out and I’m sure some others weren’t able to get to this one yet. I’ve gone through each of your posts and have come up with a few tidbits I’ll pass on. Nothing too earth shattering but just some little things I can remember Richie mentioning when I was starting…

Mowens33: Not much to say except nice job getting the winner right on top out of the gate. Regarding labeling running styles, make sure if you designate a horse “E”, that it can only win wire to wire. It helps my eye to mark a horse E/P if the horse shows it can also win from another position. Those horses should be considered too when you think a race will run OTE. They can be dangerous in that case…if they can handle the pace because they will run closer to the pace positionally than the “pure” OTE runners. That being said… GREAT start man!

Ryan: Nice work too, you were right there having the winner in your final two contenders. Very sharp layout…Zoom in on those lines against today’s pace or faster to narrow the race as much as you can. To match for profit, wait until you can narrow a race to one or two if the odds are high enough to warrant betting.

Viikinki: It looks like you felt the race would run OTE and you took an OTE runner as your top pick (which ran 2nd btw!). For your second pick you went back to the early group, I assume picking the strongest from that group. If you didn’t already, I recommend projecting the pace and then matching the horses from that early group based on their wins and VERY close finishes against that pace and faster. If a horse in that group can also run OTE or at least fight they are strongly preferred to horses that need an open lead.

Chuck: Nice analysis and use of RDSS, I know there are others out there using it too. I liked how you checked for Early runners who could also run OTE and I see how the 6 looked strong. Looking at your OTE pacelines for the early group, you mentioned that the 4 could win from second. But look at how the 2 compares to the 4…the 2 can also win from second. The POR from the 2’s line 5, which you chose, was much faster than the 4 and it power-moved from 3rd to 1st 2C-SC. That move could kill off the 4 who opened up by 6 2C to SC after a half-mile in 46. All its other races show it needs open lengths by that point too, and the power line of the 2 could lead you to believe that it won’t happen today and maybe make the 2 your second pick behind the 6.

Ray: Nice that you had the winner tabbed in your early group, maybe would have been your second choice from that group?

Pook: Well done! Also, I would have LOVED to see The Hat in action as you did, man! Looks like some of those lessons sunk in after all  The winner came from your OTE group which you narrowed based on tandems and (I’m sure) based on the fact that the 2 would run much closer to the pace positionally than the other OTE runners.

Bob & Tim (Capcondo): Feel free to chime in with any advice for others!

Thanks again everyone, I’ll look for another race this weekend. I hope the feedback is helpful. Also, for record-keeping purposes you may want to consider tracking your results with this information when you can definitively narrow a race to 1 or 2 contenders…

Track
Date
Distance
Surface
E / OTE (Prediction)
E / OTE (Result)
#Contenders
Odds
Payoff

If you keep this up you’ll create a helpful database of your strengths and weaknesses. You’ll also get a sense of what minimum odds are profitable in your overall matching as well as in specific situations.

Good Matchin’,
Pete

Pete:

I have a question about designating a horse as an "E". I know that a true E should never gain position or lengths (or at least I think I know that) during a race to be truly considered an E, but how do you classify an apparent E that does not break out of the gate in the top two or so positions? Say a horse has shown that it got the lead at the first call, but broke 4th or 5th? Would you consider this type of horse an E/P or EP considering that very early in the race it was not in the lead? It is afterall a quarter of a mile before the first call is recorded?

Any pitfalls if you do routinely consider such horses as other than "E"? Or is this a situation where you compare break positions of the group of E and E/P types and proceed thereafter?

Thanks,

Bill

Pete thanks for your constrictive analysis of all the post! The feedback was excellent!!

Mike

Hi Bill- I almost always focus on 1st call position. In the example you give, I would look at all races in the PP's where it won or finished VERY close. If it broke 4th and then made the lead by the 1C, what did it do for the rest of the race? If it went on to win or finish very close then I would look at its other wins/close finishes. Were there any where it was not on the lead at the 1C? That's the kind of horse I would consider potentially Early or OTE depending on today's pace and mix & match of running styles.

If the only good finishes were when it was on the lead or fighting for the lead
at the 1C, I would probably label it Early only even if it was 4th at the break. Then when I am matching the early runners, I would certainly consider the break position capability and fighting capability in its favor.

It still comes down to the feel for a running style in the context of today's match-up. I just became more aware of this when Richie was teaching us because I threw out too many winners who I labelled Early and didn't seem to dominate the other Earlies. Then I would look to my OTE group. Too many times, there they were, charging down the lane too late, chasing another horse in vain!

When I started marking horses who can win with both styles, and considering them against the OTE group, I noticed that many times their power lines showed them "running closer to to the pace positionally, factoring in the pace of the race", which is what Richie/The Hat taught to look for with OTE runners. It led me to more winners.

I'm not super rigid about the process though, as I try to follow the "Mind's Eye" principals. And as Richie used to say...we make calls on horses...sometimes we're right and sometimes we're not!

Thanks Bill,

Pete

Match Up
 

The Match Up is fundamentally about Energy Distribution and Horse Behavior. The first is about the inherent speed of the animal and the latter is about their own individual psychological needs for early position in the pack.Jim Bradshaw found that the most reliable way to predict the outcome of a horse race, a moving pack, given the Daily RacingForm information provided was to establish his best estimate of the early pace and then determine where the individual runners would be positioned at the first call.
Given today's Match Up of runners and the resulting projected pace who is able to achieve their desired positon at the first call? Who has shown in their past performances thatthey can set or overcome this projected early pace? However, the race is not over at the 1st call and we have to determine again from the past performances how the animals will respond to the 2nd and 3rd fractions.How do they distribute their energy?
We are taught that most horse's have distinct Running Styles. If they can't obtain the position at the 1st call, given today's projected pace, they will not produce their best efforts. However, isn't this the chicken or egg scenario? Given today's projected early pace a slow horse that wants the lead and only runs well when they have a clear open lead as demonstrated in previous past performances is not going to successfully compete today. If he has not shown the ability to run off the pace and close, he may initially attempt to get the lead and cause greater early contention but that effort will cost him many lengths by the finish. So Running Style and early speed potential go hand in hand.
In the example race there were 3 or 4 horses that had demonstrated the ability to run close or take the lead at the 1st call. In my estimation there was only one true E horse who had consistently held the lead at the 1st call. We then have to ask, "Which of these horses has competed successfully against the fastest pace of race 2nd fractions. There were only two horses that had competed successfully against a 23 second 2nd fraction. One of these had run a career best 3 races back was claimed out of the race and jumped up and
class. The horse was overmatched in a Allowance sprint two back and run back in a Starter Allowance turf sprint in its last race and now is dropped all the way back down to its claiming tag albeit one condition higher than its claimed race. This horse was able to wire the field in its career best and run a huge new top. The horse had never run a similar race. The other horse was a Presser who competed well against a 23 second fraction in both its 2nd and 4th line back. This is a fairly consistent animal and given his freshening
prior to his last race now back on a normal schedule it is reasonable to think he is fresh and fit today.
Mr. Bradshaw in his 5 step approach states clearly that you have to match horses "fraction by fraction". So beyond 1st call position, given today's pace of race, relative speed and
horse behavior have to be considered in tandem. The E horse had at best 2nd fractions in the 23.5 second range and most of the other horses lost ground in races with anything close to 23 flat. The E horse in the 2nd back had shown it could take the lead from its 2nd position at the 1sr call and fight at the 2nd call and win at 5f. But generally speaking the horse an open lead.
So you have two horses that have demonstrated that they could be on or near the lead at today's projected early pace and run faster than anyone else in the second fraction. This is where another of "The Hat's" guidelines comes full force. We have to rely on a "Preponderance of Evidence". The #6 off his 3rd race back is a stand out. The #2 horse off of his 2nd and 4th race back has shown the ablity to gain lengths against a 23 second flat second fraction and is a relatively consistent animal. Those are your choices. Everyone else in the race is running for minor awards.
In Mr. Bradshaw's early writings on the Match Up there was greater emphasis on fractional speed. However, this evolved over the years to position. I believe this resulted from the difficultly in determining the correct values for lengths gained in the latter race segments. A horse that gains a large number of lengths in the final fraction is often overvalued in FPS calculations. A horse that makes a POWER MOVE, passing at least 3 horses is important but it is the speed of the fraction that is significant. Gaining 4 lengths and 3 positions
against a 24 second fraction will not occur if today the leaders are going 23. So in evaluating a this type of move you always have to consider today's pace of race. This horse is demonstrating to you that psychologically he has no problems going by horses and that is very important in Sustained runners, but unless he can do it against today's projected pace it is meaningless except in picking up minor shares of the purse.
I hope this post is not thought to be presumptious. This is a teaching thread and while I have been at this game for over 40 years I am still learning the Match Up. There are no black and white rules and all we have is the past performances available to us in the Racing Form. Your ability to interpret raw data in a game that is Adjustment crazy employing the teachings of Jim Bradshaw and presented so clearly by Richie P will put you way ahead of the crowd.

Thanks so much Mark! I appreciate you taking the time to lay that out in so much detail and looking forward to more!

Mark, Great Stuff!

Thanks, Mike

Hi Mark, I wanted to follow up about your post, which I really enjoyed and benefited from.

I was not able to succeed with the Match-Up until I employed the Early / OTE concept (differentiating them and then matching from the projected "winning group").

Prior to that I was not able to succeed matching fraction by fraction as in the Hat's books. In analyzing why, I think I struggled to effectively match the fractions of the P and S horses to the E horses and determine when a P or S horse will overtake the E. For some reason, my mind just could not see those relationships consistently. That's why I'm so thankful for the Early/OTE concept. Maybe the Hat came up with that for people like me who couldn't get it the other way :)

I am better with matching the E horses fraction by fraction as you did for the example race. If you could ever give some examples including the P and S horses matching the E's in the 2nd and 3rd fraction, that would be awesome for me, and I'm sure others could benefit too.

I think the fraction by fraction match-up is the core of the whole thing, and intellectually it is so appealing to me, I just have never been able to get my head around how to implement it effectively.

Thanks again!

Pete

Variegation of horse races into Early and Other than Early is something I do in every race. I use Win Contenders for Early and Early Pressers and some Pressers and OTE
all others. Of course, Non-Contenders is for my culls. I will admit that the more I practice the Match Up the more I do this mentally. For instance, in races with multiple Es and Eps
you can quickly ascertain that it will run OTE. You may ask what are you including E/Ps and some Ps in the Early categories for? Well, you have to consider Energy Distribution, in my view. There are horses that want to run close to the pace, within a length or so. At a point depending on the pace, these horses can not keep up and generally fade badly. They really only have one way to go because they distribute their energy Early, even if not on the lead per se. These horses will often have Median Energy in the high 69 or 70s. Their final fractions will be below 50 fps.
They are Quarterhorses in Thoroughbred skin whether due to age, wear and tear, injury or just breeding.
Mr. Bradshaw gave us his two Voodoo Methods as a means to separate horses: #1 is finding a fast race with a decent finish and another in which the horse ran off the pace. Combining these two lines, faster pace of race with the positions and beaten lengths of the off pace race will usually produce a higher total energy. We can't really do that in RDSS2 as of now but when you eyeball it you see that the horse doesn't need the lead
but is a pretty fast horse and by conserving his energy and not fighting for the lead he can close. Look at race number 3 on 10/14 Indiana Downs, the #4 horse, Donacher, his 3rd line back he set a pace faster than today's projected pace and lost by 2.5 lengths fading inside the 1/8th pole. In his 5th line back he runs from the 5th position at the 1st call and makes a Power move in the 2nd fraction and wins a statebred MSW on
a sloppy track!!! I don't use any of the Adjusted screens in RDSS2 but I will look at the DTV on the Original Screen as I would look at the Racing Form track variant. That sloppy track had a 23 variant while most of today's runners and his line 3 back are much faster surfaces, -9, -5, most a total of 30 points faster. This was not a sealed sloppy, pistol hot surface he broke his maiden on. In this race there was an E and 3 EPs. He showed he could win from the 5th position in that maiden breaker. These are the races you wait for! He paid $39.40.
The second Voodoo technique is to match the positions of POWER LINEs by Running style initially then the best of each against each of the others. This is very difficult with lines from different tracks unless you are familiar with the different track speeds. 1st call times can vary widely depending on the Run Up distance and the overall speed of the surface based upon its composition and track configuration. You also have to know what tracks are bull rings and which run 1 turn miles. This is why you have to look at all 10 pp lines.
However, in accepting a line way back you have to answer some questions: 1. Is this the same horse? Well, if the horse was running in high priced claimers when he ran the race 8 back and and today he is running in a $5,000 claimer, the answer is definitely NO! 2. Has the horse changed his running style and become a slow horse? You see this with horses that through injury and wear and tear that used to run fairly close
to the lead or on the lead but recently they have been running as SP or S. That's what happens when soundness problems arise and the horse can't be trained into top condition. He can no longer carry his speed. It can be as simple as the
horse matured and put on some serious pounds but with the exception of true top class horses once this occurs, don't take that line. 3. If you are looking at Early speed horses and they "can no longer get on top of their fractions", don't
take that line. What this means is they used to get the lead in much faster early fractions but while they try to run early today they can't run as fast. To utilize this techniques once you have picked your pace lines, you match the fraction looking at the positions and times of the 1st and 2nd calls. Each 1/5 of a second one horse has a faster pace of race than the other is credited one position improvement.
Horse A: 22.4 - 45.2 - 110.1 4 - 2 - 1
Horse B: 22.2 - 44.8 - 109.8 5 - 3 - 2 This horse can be credited with 1 position at the 1st call to 4 now the horse gains 2 positions in its running line plus 2 positions because of the faster pace of race and you can see that he has taken the lead at the 2nd call and has extra energy left over. Using this technique you can find the horse who will be closest to the pace which is the horse we want to bet. In this example you would be comparing a P and SP but as you work you way through the horses you want to save the best of each running style for the final comparison. Again this is POWER LINE Voodoo. For those that don't know what a POWER LINE is, it is the fastest early pace of race against which the horse has finished competitively at the distance structure and surface. The idea here is to find the best early pace the horse has competed successfully against, provided you have answered those questions to your satisfaction and use this as your basis for comparison. Fast horses win races unless they are compromised
by early contention and have to run too fast too early. Slow horses can only win races when the fast horses are compromised and decelerate rapidly allowing them to be passed.
Google search on the Pace and Cap website for threads that involve Voodoo, Richie did a phenomenal job teaching these concepts with examples. That's where I learned it.
The advanced concepts offered in the Hat Check Blog are probably not for everyone. The more races you have handicapped and more experienced you are the greater your ability to apply your knowledge of pace lines, form cycles and very importantly,
Trainer intent. I have spent many years trying to decipher this latter subject. Your ability to consistently do this will allow you to land on the correct pace line the majority of the time and that is how you win at this game.
Hope this helps.

Right on the money, man! This post is going to help man out there and point them back to Richie's posts. It is all there.

Thanks,
Pete