Haskell Stakes 2014
 

Here are the Official Entries for this year's edition of the Haskell. The RDSS data file should be available sometime tomorrow mid-day.

Is the filly Untapable really that good !?

Attachment 38025

Please post opinions and analysis!

Ted

yes she is ...but we'll find out how good...if she can beat males ?????

Thanks for posting Ted- I was just about to do the same thing.

Lots of speed in here. the 1, 2, 6 and 8 all look to be dedicated to the front, the 3 looks like an overmatched early presser, the 4 presses and might get involved early as well, the 5 is SP. The 9 Medal Count is an SP but all wins have been on turf or poly - I suspect a strong late run but not good enough.

Speed of the speed is either Bayern or Wildcat Red. both will fight all the fractions, killing off the 1, 3, and 6 (Social Inclusion who has not fought recently but who might be seeking a pressing running style. If SI presses he stays in my picture a little longer.

Bayern's best route comes off a 1:11 2nd call and if it was only that I would exclude him, but his last 7F race projects to 140.2 off of a 1:08 fraction so he could be improving.

Wildcat Red ran 46.1-110 fighting all the way to win in 141.4 in Feb, backed it up last out vs faster. I expect a full out fight for the lead between Wildcat Red and Bayern.

There are two SPs Just Call Kenny and Untapable. It looks like Untapable will settle in front of Just Call Kenny. If you look at Untapable's times she just keeps getting better from 144.2, to 143.6, to 143.0, to 142.2 and most lately 141.4

My only concern is her last was a one turn race which makes the final time look too good in my opinion. Countering that are the sparkling internal fractions of 45.4 and 109.3 which she over came as well as having to deal with another horse cutting her off early. Her best prior to last is 142.2.

Odds will probably crush Untapable so I will take Wildcat Red on top with a side bet on the improving and untested at this level Just Call Kenny. Bayern could also hit board with his fighting style.

Good luck to all.....

Some readouts with VALM

Lots of Early speed
 

I have 2 problems with this race besides the unknown against males for
# 7 Untapable What do I do with # 9? I see lots of early speed
However I don't have a comparable pace line for Medal Count ?
I constructed a 9 furlong time out of Medals Belmont stakes race
but it projected too slow on TPR

I will see what the odds are on Untapable

Medal
 

Here are his PP's

Attachment 38049

My question regarding Untapable is not one of ability but one of gender tendency potential. I wonder about her reaction to running while being surrounded by male horses.

I did a couple manual workups from the form. One of them resulted in a tie between Bayern and Social Inclusion with Untapable a nostril behind in a 3-way photo.

Social Inclusion will be running without Lasix today, I think for the first time since his maiden win. That fact may not be shown on your PP/entry form.

Attachment 38059

It's tough to figure out wat to expect out of Untapable and Social inclusion for the reasons stated above.

I'm not on Wildcat Red. If both WR and Bayern get a clean trip, they will wear eachother down. The most interesting thing to me here is that 4 & 5 appear to be live- and will undoubtedly be at long prices.

Pace seems to set up really nicely for the filly. If she has a freakout running against the boys, I'm thinking the 4 and 9 have a good shot.

Bill- I agree- I had no idea what to do with Medal Count here.

Form
 

Her last few races are spaced out about what see has been off prior to today's
Haskel I see a potential form issue.
She is going 9 furlongs today. Her total energy is declining while her
%Med is going up .. I don't think this is a good sign
However the last line at Belmont looks like a cake walk

Bill

Attachment 38060

And In The End
 

Its Bob Baffert again

Attachment 38062

Well, if you had enuf intestinal fortitude to believe in Bayern's last 7f race time, you would find that 120.3 + 2 fifths = 121 +6.2*4 furlongss = 146.3. He only had to run 147.2 to win.

No other horse could match that, with Untapable projecting to 147.4 and Wildcat Red to 148.1. Bayern's best mile projects to 148.1 as well.

The problem for me was the anticipated pace duel that I did not see Bayern surviving to the detriment of both him and Wildcat Red. The projection from the 7f race should have provided a clue, not that I heeded it.

On to the next race....

Bill L.

These pace observations are important observations. As you gather more of the same observations; they become guidelines that we can look for in future matchup of races. They fit in line with the collections of track models; so to speak. Finally, as one makes enough of the same pace observation of doing many pace matchups; these observations become convictions.

I was very high on Bayern in this year's Preakness; I thought he had a strong chance to be competitive with California Chrome but it was not to be as Bayern finished up the track. I was perplexed to say the least as Bayern finished up the track some 21 lengths behind the winner of the Preakness. But when Bayern was entered on the second biggest racing day of the year on Belmont Day, I understood some of my misconceptions of Bayern's assessment in the Preakness race. "Stick to your convictions!!"

See the race in Matchup section from yesterday

Preakness and Bayern comment
 

My Preakness work up looked like this:

I know Bayern had trouble after the start, but based on the Hat's marathon methods he would not have been a contender. The chart shows the horses, date of race, location, Graded condition or ALW of each horse's best mile time.

Ride on Curlin the place horse was a surprise. I discounted Social Inclusion's best time as it was from an allowance race. Once you do that you get CC with the best two times, SI with 4th best, GAR with 3rd best. CC's 2nd best time was 1.68 seconds slower than Bayern's best which came from a Grade 3 race on a one turn mile surface. Lots of old Sartin advice in this table if you look at graded races vs non graded.

Bill