Way early Derby musings - marathon method
 

Heading out on a limb here, but what the heck...

The Derby this year is once again loaded with early speed types, but it appears that there are not that many qualified SP or S types to upset the apple cart.

The top two mile times come from California Chrome who recorded those times, once on the lead and another time early pressing, but be aware that earlier races show wins from 4th position, so he might be content to let others lead and pounce when needed.

FYI I considered only horses that were in the top 25 points earners so far, with a couple of exceptions.

Of interest here is that Chitu a fairly committed EP type has the 3rd and 7th best mile times, but current thinking is this one is going in the Derby Trial this weekend. Should be interesting what running style is used in that race. I would probably like him if he shows he can press from a couple off or more.

Also, prior to yesterday 4 of the top 15 miles had been run by Midnight Hawk - #3-9-12-15, but they say he will not run in the Derby.

The early contingent looks to include Ca Chrome, Chitu (?), Wildcat Red and General a Rod as the serious early horses. Others like Social Inclusion and Uncle Sigh could enter this duel to add to the clutter up front.

There do not appear to be any true fighters on the lead at a pace that will hold up for 10 furlongs.

So far with the contenders I am looking at there have only been 14 horses who ran in races with a six furlong time of 112.00 or better and only 11 running lines from only 9 horses that have either gone wire to wire or which gained both positions and lengths against 112.00 six furlong time.

The nine are California Chrome (2x), Wildcat Red, Chitu (2x), General a Rod, Candy Boy, Social Inclusion, Hoppertunity, Samraat and Wicked Strong.

Candy Boy, Hoppertunity, Samraat have all gained from either 4th or 5th and Wicked Strong closed from the farthest out, in sixth, to win the Wood

7 of the top 9 mile times (excluding Midnight Hawk) come from horses expected to run E or EP, the other two top mile times, #4 and #8, come from the SP Candy Boy and Hoppertunity (Samraat rates 15th best mile time).

Looking down the list of mile times there is a noticable gap after #8. The 8th best mile time is 135.77 and the 9th best is 136.41 (or more than 3+ lengths) which means that all the closers must overcome that and have enough in reserve to pass whatever is still in front of them at the top of the stretch.

My preliminary opinion is that Chrome can cruise at a high rate, fend off the rest of the E and EP pretenders and then worry about the two SP's and the lone S - Wicked Strong.

But we can take a closer look after all the entries are known. There is still a lot of flux in the field, so I will wait so as not to get myself fluxed up too much, too soon.

Regards,

nice! bill

I agree, nice writeup Bill.

Bill Lyster...

Always appreciate your opinions on marathon races, the Derby is no exception...thanks for taking the time for an early analysis....

So far, race matchup lacks a true strong sustained runner among the top twenty...Baffert making some strange moves among his entrants...

Bill, thanks for posting your thoughts on the Derby! I'm going to need all the help I can get!!

Mike

I became a fan of reading charts big time when I spotted Little Current's trouble line in the 1974 Derby chart. He was stopped pretty badly there and then went on to win the Preakness at 13:1 and the Belmont 3 weeks later.

I have read all the prep race charts so far this year and there does not appear to have been much more than the using slow breaks, occasional bumps, wide trips, etc., but the chart comments for two horses got my attention.

Having previous commented on the Aqueduct chart caller's "It was a dark and stormy night..." call of the Wood, all of this might be a matter of style from a different chart caller, but then again, maybe not.

I offer these two charts from California Chrome's last two races. It looks like Baffert's two best horses were blown out. No wonder Midnight Hawk is scheduled NOT to run in the Derby.

Light taps with the whip and long holds at the finish in two consecutive races do not look like the race took much out of this horse.

One other chart comment in the next post.

Chart comment #2
 

There might be other charts to comment upon, but this one also caught my eye. I agree that this race needs a good closer. So far, here is my candidate.

The Hat talked about POWER MOVES, well look at this one. Dance With Fate inhaled almost the entire field, going from 11th out of 14 to first from the backstretch to the start of the stretch. Admittedly, it was on poly track, but DWF has passed horses on turf and regular dirt when not impeded at the start as he was in BC Juvenile; he was squeezed at start in DMR Futurity, was 10th at 1/2 mile 6.75 L back and lost by 0.5 L (another poly performance, BTW)

DWF's turn time was a sparkling 23.74 followed up by a final furlong in 12.23. No other horse in this race ran a faster final eighth. Of course with a race six furlong time of 112.74 he still might need some help from others up front in order to win.

THX Bill for the comments....I've had my eyes on Wicked Strong and DWF for a while...I'm reading things like DWF can't run on the dirt..which I totally disagree with, horses with good TT and HE are good in the Derby...especially when those "E" horses run a 45 half mile, which seems to happen often..

I remarked on DWF's Blue Grass because of the tremendous power move that it made (almost last to first all on the turn or starting just before). My BG handicapping eliminated all the early contenders, but unfortunately DWF was not one of the closers I had.

To date DWF has raced 8 times with 3 wins and 3 seconds, 5 times on poly, 1 grass race and two routes on dirt. In the BC Juvenile he was squeezed at start losing all chance. Nonetheless he made up 4 lengths on the turn against 45.2 and 109.6 fractions, a 23.6 fraction, before giving it up. Remember, this was as a raw two year old. The final time adjusted for lengths beaten was about 145.2. In his previous race, also a Grade 1 race on dirt where he was 2nd, his adjusted final time was about 145.4, turn time 24.8 off of 46.6-111.6 fractions. So you can see improvement from race to race on dirt. When he finished 2nd in that race he beat Tamarando (gaining from 3rd to first at the stretch call), his conqueror in the DMR futurity and apparently, a poly only horse (so far). DWF horse went from winning its 2nd ever start right into Grade 1 company with 2 seconds, a win, and the BC debacle. Hardly criteria for dismissal as a one surface performer. He won his NW1x on turf as an early season prep in January.

From limited number of races, Wicked Strong appears to make a little later move than does DWF, launching from a little further back in the pack and not passing horses until into the stretch.

Thx for the update Bill...looking forward to your analysis when the final entries are decided, on Blue Grass day I did put DWF on my P3 and P4 tickets even tho RDSS didn't have him as a contender...I was on line that friday night listening to Mike Beer from DRF and Jeremy Plonk from Horseplayer.com..and they both picked him to win the Blue Grass and their analysis seemed very valid so I spent the extra money and put him on my tickets...good thing I did...when handicapping 3yo I've learned that using other factors other than pace analysis and listening to views of some of the so called (experts) do help me at times....good skills next week everyone, let's make some $$$$$$$$

Links to 2014 Derby and past Derbies pps
 

Here is a great links to past Derby pps and 2014 Derby...

Link
http://www.trackphantom.com/KyDerby.html

Bris pps

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...4PointsPPs.pdf

Hey Bill, was just reading your post again ...Derby musings-marathon method..and I noticed your comment about only 9 horses that have gone wire to wire or which gained both position and lengths against a 112.0 or faster. You didn't include Tapiture in that bunch...doesn't he qualify with his race from 30Nov13CD KYJC ? or are you just considering races as a 3yo??

I was using the graded stakes run this year as basis for that comment and the earliest race I recorded was the Robert B Lewis on Feb 8th.

I decided after last year, when one of the contenders ran a fast race in October or November and then never came close to it after the first of the year, to not consider such horses. He could not surpass a late 2yo year time as a maturing 3yo so he should have been ignored.

Bill

Here is my spreadsheet. Miles are calculated from 9f time less 2 x 6.4 seconds with beaten lengths adjusted at 5L = 1 sec. If the race was 8.5 furlongs the beaten lengths are added and then 6.4 seconds deducted.

Each running style is sorted by best mile time. Note, no top 15 times appear in the SP category. SS = sustained. Also note that more than one E or EP type has multiple best miles in the top 15 and sometimes the top 5.

Just to the left of the Finish Position is a column labeled "Pos". I gave one point for every position gained between 1/4 - 1/2 call and 1 pt for each position gained between 1/2 and 3/4 call and 2 pts for every position gained between 3/4 and stretch call.

In the Lengths Back section to the right of the finish lengths beaten is column "L+". I gave points for lengths gained on the same basis as for "Pos", so I could compare horses that gained BOTH position and lengths at these calls. You will see horses that gained position but lost lengths - I don't like that very much.

To the right of "L+" is an unlabeled column that simply adds values in the Pos and L+ columns. the farther from the lead that a horse runs the larger number it needs to overcome the pace, positioning and lengths behind. I would consider for further consideration only the best horses in each positional running category, so I like the Pressers Danza and Ride on Curlin with 8+ figures better than most of the SP runners. But I took it a bit further.

The lines marked in Dark Red are for horses that ran against a 3/4 time of 112 or better WHICH ALSO HAVE A POSITIVE "Pos + L+" total. I cannot imagine this Derby run in anything so slow as 112 unless its muddy.

To me Wicked Strong looks like the best closer if Calif Chrome enters a speed duel.

these are close but not my final selections.

Good luck,

Hoppertunity is scratched
 

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Hoppertunity, the 6-1 second choice in the Kentucky Derby, was scratched from the race Thursday morning because of soreness in his left front foot.

The injury was a blow to trainer Bob Baffert and to the quality of the Derby field. Hoppertunity had run well against Derby favorite California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby, and that was without an aggressive push from jockey Mike Smith. Many observers believed he was peaking just in time for Kentucky.

Final thoughts
 

I see Chitu, General a Rod and Wildcat Red on the lead. These three in order have the 2/7, 6 and 5th best mile times. all appear to have a lot of heart. Following them is California Chrome with the 1st and 3rd best mile times (1st by .40 over Chitu and almost a full second over Wildcat Red, btw!!) and Candy Boy (4th best).

The only closer who has run faster than 112 is Wicked Strong, but there should be good kicks from Intense Holiday, Dance with Fate, Danza.

My win picks would be CC, WS with Candy, IH, DWF and Danza in second. I went away from Candy because CC beat drew off in their last go round, but he still could be the place horse.

Reserving all rights to wheel others depending on odds.

Good luck,

Do you hear that noise.........
 

Beep.......Beep.......Beep.......Beep.........Beep....

Back up the truck P&C'rs - all California Chrome all the time.

1) California Chrome
2) Danza

May all of your bets cash.

Charts and comments
 

Chart Info: